NVIDIA's long-term future will suffer because of it, no matter how correct the decision is
Even if they have to pay a fine or increased regulatory scrutiny. At this point NVIDIA is more like SHELL(10 years ago maybe/during oil spill scandal) than a tech company. Its going to keep printing money with its chips.
So, I guess I'll timestamp my prediction that now is a good time to buy NVIDIA stock.
How much of Nvidia’s revenue came from infringing sales to china? If so, that revenue is probably going to disappear as now they will have to really be serious about export controls or face much greater pain. Some estimates I’ve seen is 30% of their revenue perhaps disappearing overnight!
And I'm pretty sure any CEO with at least a bachelors degree knows about the De beers diamonds story, so, I really find it hard to believe they will struggle with the concept of maintaining their artifical scarcity/demand.
Personally I think a bigger risk than that is AI models getting good enough to legitimately just reverse engineer and open source CUDA directly.
Plus whole lot of people waiting for that signal that the "AI bubble " is about to burst.
I mean, imagine nvidia becoming like Apple, with an AI App Store ... trying to maximize their profits above everything else.
And I doubt it'll cost him much. What could you pay the founder of the second most valuable company on the planet who already holds $150B in equity? It'd be as absurd as paying Donald Trump.
So if he held 150B stock say before, now he has 100B.
The rest of the market isn’t looking very solid either.
Not in premarket so far, 12% down sing yesterday.
Also why would it do better? Overall Huang seems to be a highly competent CEO. Replacing him with someone seems risky (especially if the board is influenced by Trump & co.). Especially given that Nvidia never had any other CEO.
I am not sure if you and I are looking at the same chart. Down 12% Pre Market.
It’s really not hard.
P.S: not saying this should happen.
Then it was a negotiation about how.
Sometimes people can see the writing on the wall and choose to not burn down their life’s work on the way out.
That’s also why more recent tech companies got rid of that pesky independent board by having total voting control.
But my guess is, he'd rather resign on this note than what will come out in a few weeks.
But that doesn't preclude there being a lot of competent talent on the second rung. (I think 60 people reported directly to him.)
Hard to imagine that could have been the case given that he was Nvidia's CEO from the very beginning.
Don't worry about him.
So, it would not be a dumb idea for Jensen Huang to leave scorched earth and "let the world burn" (and in particular cause utter panic in the AI sector). :-)
LLMs will be completely unaffected, but the pricing remains to be seen.