The AI sell-off compared to well-known stock market crashes(www.kadoa.com)
38 pointsby hubraumhugo3 hours ago10 comments
  • rmah27 minutes ago
    There are always bears who are predicting the next stock market crash. They always have various reasons that make sense on the surface. They're almost always wrong. But they're always eventually right.
    • howunfortunate24 minutes ago
      > But they're always eventually right.

      Can you really call it "right" if the market goes up 40% before eventually going down 15%?

  • bensyverson2 hours ago
    I guess we'll see if it's really a sell-off, or if it was normal market volatility around an election.
    • mikeweiss2 hours ago
      There's not much normal about the market last 5 years...
      • metaphoran hour ago
        I wonder how much of that volatility is directly attributable to SPX 0DTE being a daily thing since circa 2022.
    • lifeislovingan hour ago
      It doesn't fit any normal distribution actually.
      • ViscountPenguinan hour ago
        Normal as in "typical", not as in "Central Limit Theorem".

        Wiener processes aren't a completely terrible model for markets though.

    • nullsanity40 minutes ago
      [dead]
  • fauchleteneruman hour ago
    The crashes seem be getting smaller and more frequent
    • shalmanese37 minutes ago
      I think that's just you noticing smaller blips in the market as you pay more attention. Markets are random walks so they exhibit a fairly fixed distribution of different sized crashes. If they deviated, someone could notice that pattern and trade on it, returning the market back to a random walk.
    • eruan hour ago
      Which would be progress.

      A small sell-off is just business as usual.

      • lifeislovingan hour ago
        Who called this small? Datacenter stocks are largely down 50% this month.
        • fizwidget38 minutes ago
          The further you narrow down to specific industries/companies the more volatile things get. That’s hardly surprising.

          The discussion here is around broader stock market indices.

        • zardo31 minutes ago
          The cheap debt is drying up for neoclouds. New bonds are going to be at payday loan rates.
    • ion_trapperan hour ago
      The beauty of increasingly efficient markets.
      • adrianNan hour ago
        I don't think the efficient market hypothesis says anything about the convergence time or the path to convergence, but I'm not an economist.
  • usernomdeguerrean hour ago
    Or this is a correction that has already happened in other markets, and is now unwinding here:

    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-ai-bubble-has-alre...

  • yipinwong27 minutes ago
    both the media and the post is making a deal out of nothing.

    When the author is right, he will be like, "i told you so", if wrong, "It's hard to predict" and shrug off.

    Don't buy into crap post like this.

  • cgio16 minutes ago
    Maybe it’s because a behemoth ipo is coming and investment bankers are at work.
  • pamcakean hour ago
    Isn't it overly bullish plus quite early to refer to this as "The AI sell-off"?
    • devin44 minutes ago
      Do you mean bearish?

      Maybe. Nobody can see the future, so I agree it's kind of arbitrary to call this the sell-off, but plotting it against these other events over the coming months may be interesting, and you have to start somewhere.

  • Lercan hour ago
    I have seen a few YouTube Thumbnails declaring the bursting of the AI bubble. It feels like they are so desperate for it to happen that they are not prepared to wait a week or two to actually have some real data to work with.

    It's not like people will forget that they were predicting it. If it is inevitable it will happen, if it isn't inevitable it still might happen. If it bounces back it still might happen six months down the track. Declaring it to have already happened seems reckless if your intention was to inform. We will know soon enough. I guess at least they have staked there credibility on something falsifiable. It won't make them retroactively less reckless if they turn out to be right but it'll make them seem particularly foolish if they are wrong.

    • lconnell96234 minutes ago
      Between it and the "next housing bubble" getting predicted I almost wonder if there's some kind of stock market psychology to bullheaded resistance in the face of "it will fail" predictions.

      That on something big if you have enough people constantly predicting it's upcoming failure people just keep investing anyway keeping it going. Never really sure if something is on life support or not.

      • 28 minutes ago
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  • jasonkhanlaran hour ago
    Reminder NVDA market capitalization skyrocketed around the time Brett Harrison and Leopold Aschenbrenner exited from FTX.
  • lelanthranan hour ago
    It's a bit early to be calling it, I think.

    A sell-off is required to start a panic-sell and bubble-pop, but not all sell-offs start a panic-sell and bubble-pop.

    It's hard to tell in advance what this is.

    • Animats28 minutes ago
      Yes. This is just the first day.

      It's going to take a year or two more. Will the humanoid robots being built be useful? Will Tesla's robotaxi ever work without a huge number of remote monitors? Will the free models start to displace the expensive ones? Will someone figure out a way to do all this at lower cost? We don't know yet. But there are too many huge companies with rather inflated market caps. Some of that has to be air.