The numbers from multiple companies show a high CapEx investment in a product that has yet to be proven as profitable as the very things it is hurting (i.e. ads). End of story.
I asked this to ChatGPT “if anthropics valuation didn’t rise and stayed at 200B what would their profit be on q2”
The answer is around 1B of profit.
As far as Google's mark to market profit on Anthropic shares, everyone realizes that's not a sustainable source of income. Which is probably one reason why it's trading at about 15 times profits. If you back out the $99B of (unrealized) equity gains in anthropic and others, Google is trading at 25 times the last 12m earnings.
That doesn't mean all the circular financing won't be a problem, but people keep drawing the wrong conclusions from the negative earnings, which are relevant to investors but not so much to the viability of the business.
Was that the one where they removed a bunch of big positions to make it positive (was it training cost, I forgot)?
Keiretsu - perfectly acceptable business relationship preferences that in no way require governments to regulate their GDP growth / campaign donation black box machine.
govt prints money (FED) -> government -> banks -> (economy) -> tax -> government
And the second "great circle"
govt loans money (FED) (money that doesn't exist, which isn't a problem if you can print money) -> banks -> (economy) -> loan repayment -> money gets "unprinted"/destroyed
Everything about the economy is a great circle. You will also understand after a while, if you wish for the economy to remain stable, this must be the case. You can't change it without either hyperinflation and extreme "capital flight" (between quotes because of course in that circumstances capital will run into gold or other physical resources), by either vastly overheating or stopping the economy.
And yes, most instances are of the overheating kind. The only case of stopping the economy was accidental (despite many warnings), in other words, yes, it was Republicans. But last time that happened, even republicans could decide to change course. Of course, only once huge damage was done.
coreweave did
i'm sure ant didn't help, but thanks for the fire sale i guess
> Last year, for instance, Anthropic lost $80 billion, and Amazon had negative $42 billion free cash flow. The entire big tech complex, it seems, has moved from minting cash to burning it. And investors are, well, not panicking exactly, but wondering if the bubble is ending
Is this really the quality of such newsletters? I’m not asking rhetorically because I’d like to also have trustable sources to understand the underlying reality. I actually spent time understanding this part and the 80B dollar loss thing is completely misrepresented here (also went viral in other media).
Yeah I see this too. That we're not innovating any more also doesn't help make our industry look good
Tech companies were never the "good guys" any more than they are the "bad guys" now. Those are just colored filters thrown in front of the lime light to shift your perception. As soon as tech or AI works to their benefit then suddenly they'll be the good guys again and no one will care they were the bad guys before. People just go where the algo leads them, believe what their influencers believe, think what their peers think.
Blockchain/NFT hype did a ton of damage to tech's credibility, as well as Uber before it (along with the many Uber for X apps).
Facebook scandals had exploded already, Google had already long abandoned "don't be evil", nobody ever liked Microsoft, and I think sentiment towards Apple is somewhat unchanged.
These protests ended up getting pretty violent, people were throwing rocks through bus windows, throwing up on cars.
It felt like I was helping the bad guys, and my conscience couldn't deal with that.
by the public populating the echo chambers on reddit and bluesky, perhaps.
9.5 out of 10 normies use it daily now and have no negative opinions about it. the wholesome folx use it too, despite their incessant kvetching.
There definitely has been a broad change in public perception of big tech and the future that it is taking us toward.
This is not the gotcha you think it is.