Lets hope merit rather than hype is the best way to judge to the value of anything.

Secondly have you actually chcked whether the vibe coded Adobe replacements actually work ?

Sounds like you just believed, just like many people just believe in stuff like aliens or faith healer because they heard it on the bus or train.

They can try but they can’t stop open weight models

No. First, Adobe doesn't have the capital or market power to square off against the entire AI economy. Bubble or not, AI labs, hyperscalers, and all their customers & suppliers represent trillions in capital and significant political power.

Second, the vast majority of Adobe's revenue comes from enterprise licensing agreements not individual consumers who might switch to free, open source alternatives.

Third, good, free alternatives to Adobe tools have already existed for many years, such as PhotoPea.

No, they are irrelevant now.

I think it is irrelevant, as PhotoShop is notoriously poor in UX. GIMP has even worse UX. The battle is not in cloning PhotoShop, but in rethinking complex photo editing.