23 pointsby anon3738392 hours ago6 comments
  • bm371919 minutes ago
    Autonomous recursive self-improvement needs to happen. It doesn't have to happen tomorrow, or in 10 years even, but it has to happen sometime in the near future, or we're kinda screwed.

    Why say this? Well, of the plausible futures from here, the worst one is where AI plateus just good enough to make us all useless (or just destroy the pipeline of a critical mass of capable humans), but at a point dumb enough that we don't get human-superior AI. This might happen or not, but there's no way to predict when something that doesn't exist will, so it's one of those horrors that can keep you up at night. Some of those skeptical about RSI have likened it to the Great Filter.

    • cyanydeeza few seconds ago
      The probly is believing our problems are just calculus.

      They are not. Our problems are akin to cellular automata, and just the same. We can project a few steps forward but we cannot say this configuration will evolve to that configuration.

      Eugenics is similar; the belief that we can measure physical chatacteristics and selectbased on the same for some desirable future configuration is just a self delusion.

      Orboids in a swarm the whole does not direct the sum.

      These are all basics that humans struggle against. AI will just head in adirection, and itll be as meaningless as an automata swarm. Youll recognize payterns but they wont make you sure of the next step.

  • kooi33 minutes ago
    Great analysis. Clearly shows "advancement" is not exponential but logarithmic. Hence, "We need to slow down!!" as a cover for stagnating improvements.
  • nifragos20 minutes ago
    it seems that the big leap has already ended. Now its more cutting costs and improving speed. But maybe it is better this way...
  • freecodeio35 minutes ago
    Just like when you upscale a picture 100 times by 200%, and then you zoom in and start seeing all these artifacts, so is the outcome of "recursive intelligence".

    We are going to be stuck in a few years of delusion, but there will be some entertainment as a side effect. AI executives and researchers are going to delve even deeper into AI psychosis thinking that the equivalent of psychedelic trip-looking school buses at 4000x zoom of an orange cat's ass, except in the form of text, is actually something intelligent and we just don't have the capacity to understand the "super intelligence's thoughts", all the while pouring another few trillions.

  • inglor_czan hour ago
    I like Noah's blog in general (this is a guest post), but I think that trying to precisely time and phase a new technological development you are watching from within is a fool's errand.
  • kelseyfrog27 minutes ago
    Not where, when.

    Asking where is the intelligence explosion suffers the same issue as the Gorman Paradox[1] - the question proceeded the explosion by six months. Timing explosions is like timing the market - infinitely harder than predicting eventual existence.

    1. https://codemanship.wordpress.com/2025/12/14/the-gorman-para...