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How Accurate Have AI Progress Forecasts Been So Far?
(
forecastingresearch.substack.com
)
2 points
by
gmays
3 hours ago
2 comments
michaelastreiko
3 hours ago
The calibration angle is useful: separating capability forecasts from deployment and adoption forecasts makes misses easier to diagnose.
katamin
2 hours ago
I think this will widen the gap even more.