Motion, not progress. So much talk of 100x and 1000x engineers, so little to show for it.
But when they start blogging or writing about AGI, especially _if_ they are technical, I wonder why don't they go just one, or at most two layers deep and try to understand why this generally intelligent contraption sometimes happily executes `rm -rf /` and then nonchalantly apologizes after the fact. They liken these slips to the same kind of mistakes humans do, but they are fundamentally different.
Human failure modes are predictable from their skill level. Humans also carry emotional baggage and they weigh the cost of the mistakes they bear depending on their privileges.
For an LLM "rm -rf /" is rare and unpredictable, but "I am sorry" after it is almost certain because they were trained on dialogs and they get better score for "I am sorry" than "that wasn't my fault".
Some people think it means "better than human intelligence in every way". We'll be able to find niches that humans are better at for a very long time, so that definition hasn't been met, but is getting increasingly pedantic.
Some people think it means "smart enough to improve itself independently, thus triggering the singularity". The frontier labs are using AI to help improve itself, but it's not working independently, yet, AFAICT. So that definition isn't met yet.
2. If AGI is here, so what? What are you saying we should do? What exactly are you selling? Why did you feel the urge to give us a heads up?
I’m sure we top it soon though.
On a more serious note: I don't think so.
I'm happily using the clanker all day every day, but that dumb piece of shit is definitely not an AGI.