47 pointsby alephnerd3 hours ago16 comments
  • darkwizard423 hours ago
    Seeing a lot of tricks similar to how ridesharing companies tried to be "profitable" before going to IPO. Caveat: Thing have materially improved but really Uber is carried by its insane Ads margins

    The idea of removing model training from your costs is a little wild tbh.

    The profitability of being able to serve a query wasn't really under question (nor is the margin expected to be anything less than 80%+) I think.

    • embedding-shape2 hours ago
      > The idea of removing model training from your costs is a little wild tbh.

      Yeah, I didn't believe they'd claim something like that. But yes indeed, from the article:

      > Anthropic's gross margins are above 80% before accounting for revenue shared with distribution partners, including Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab, and the cost of training its model,

      Is this how all AI companies calculate if they're profitable or not, by removing the highest costs? What a circus.

      • _diyar2 hours ago
        > Anthropic has told shareholders that its adjusted operating income will be positive for a second straight quarter, the Financial Times reported on Sunday, citing multiple people with knowledge of the matter.

        Note this claim is about „operating profit“, which commonly is the revenue - operating expenses (COGS, rent, payroll). This does not include RnD cost.

        >Anthropic's gross margins are above 80% before accounting for revenue shared with distribution partners, including Amazon (AMZN.O), and the cost of training its model, the newspaper said.

        Gross margin is typically (revenue - COGS) / revenue. Thus, both statements above seem generally in line with commonly accepted accounting standards.

        • yread2 hours ago
          If you are sharing revenue (royalties, licenses based on revenue, costs that scale directly with revenue) doesnt that count as cost of goods sold?
      • vgeekan hour ago
        Andy Fastow would be envious.
      • sandeepkd2 hours ago
        The way I read it, they are convincing the investors that they can fool the larger population convincingly. At the end of the day the investor term is misnomer for big institutional investors, given that these people are managing other people money where they always make out a certain percentage of fees despite the outcome.
      • SlightlyLeftPad2 hours ago
        I believe this is a new accounting method called “phantasmagorical accounting.”
    • itkovian_2 hours ago
      I can’t count the number of times I’ve heard variants of ‘they’re losing money on every query’ and ‘I’m getting 10k worth of tokens for $200’ over the last year. People clearly believed serving margins were -ve
      • gcran hour ago
        I think the latter half of your post is missing
        • kubelsmieci27 minutes ago
          Hehe, he reached limit of his tokens /s
    • aesthesia2 hours ago
      > The profitability of being able to serve a query wasn't really under question

      In one sense, yes, but I do see people question it regularly.

      • surgical_firean hour ago
        I still question it. It's very light on details by just casually dropping they have 80% margins. I smell bullshit on this.

        It is certainly not above them to play accounting tricks to pretend to be anywhere near profitable.

        If you create a machine that can turn a dollar into 5, you don't dillute ownership of the machine, you use your fabulous profits to expand production. Anthropic, on the other hand, raises money like crazy, and seems desperate to IPO.

    • TSiege2 hours ago
      I think part of the big push to "slow down AI development" is to add some sort of regulatory pressure that will give them sort cover to train less models and slow their burn rates
    • JumpCrisscross2 hours ago
      > idea of removing model training from your costs is a little wild tbh

      It's one of several metrics and tries to estimate steady-state profitability. It's the only one being leaked because it's the most sensational one. But don't assume cash-flow profitability is negative just because you don't know it.

    • throwawaysleep2 hours ago
      > The profitability of being able to serve a query wasn't really under question (nor is the margin expected to be anything less than 80%+) I think.

      HN had long debates about whether AI inference could even be affordable from a compute perspective.

    • awongh2 hours ago
      I didn't realize how much money Uber makes from ads.... Why does every business devolve into an ad platform?
      • agentultra2 hours ago
        Might be because most hit their maximum growth but need to keep growing indefinitely or risk becoming a “mature” company?
      • throwawaysleepan hour ago
        Any business where people are looking at a screen should probably sell ads.
      • s1artibartfastan hour ago
        Because consumers don't care much about ads and prefer them to even minor cost differences.
    • sphinxterai3 hours ago
      Well then you haven't listened to Ed Zitron or any of the other AI bubble doomers. His contention is that its worthless and they lose money on every query.
      • embedding-shape2 hours ago
        But isn't he taking all the costs into account, that created the experience? Rather than just literally the inference/serving infrastructure? Bananas way of calculating things if so, doesn't match reality at all.
      • freejazz2 hours ago
        isn't that when the training costs are actually accounted for?
      • JumpCrisscross2 hours ago
        Zitron is worthless–lying about numbers and not correcting the record when you're called out means you aren't trustworthy. Worse than that if you directionally agree with him, which I do.
        • rowanG0772 hours ago
          He makes his money and fame by spewing bulshit as many grifters before him.

          Which unfortunately probably hides the real truth. That large labs do have potential problems with long term profitability.

  • nemomarx3 hours ago
    "profitable without COGS" doesn't actually mean anything at all does it?
    • JumpCrisscross2 hours ago
      Profitable without Capex, i.e. gross margin. Inference is included in COGS. Capex (training) is not. That's reasonable.
      • icedchai2 hours ago
        Is it really capex though? New models are being constantly trained, released at least quarterly, while old ones become obsolete. Training costs vary, but never disappear.
        • famouswaffles31 minutes ago
          New models are constantly being trained, but they don't have to be constanatly trained. If OpenAI or Anthropic 'just' wanted to be a profitable business, they could ease up on that, but they're both racing to create a machine to can automate all or most human labour.
      • cmdli2 hours ago
        This also includes revenue sharing with distribution partners, which should probably be in COGS.
      • freejazz2 hours ago
        Isn't training necessary for the end-product? How is it not a cost to generate the output if you can't generate the output without having done the training? Seems more like saying that a car is profitable product when you don't have to account for the steel that its made from. Seems completely disingenuous.
        • seizethecheese2 hours ago
          In what case is capex (for any company) not required for the end product? Are you arguing capex is disingenuos as a concept?

          In your car example the training is much like setting up the manufacturing line.

          I think the issue here is that the capex depreciates super fast since the models obsolete really fast.

          • freejazzan hour ago
            If my company sells widgets and dongles, capex for the dongle line does not figure into widget COGS
        • icedchai2 hours ago
          It's an accounting trick.
    • mrweasel2 hours ago
      Is that basically: We'd be making money, if we didn't have to build the product?
  • cdrnsf2 hours ago
    I imagine there are many other businesses that would be profitable if they excluded all of their largest costs from their reporting.
    • throwaway_952832 hours ago
      Turns out building houses is super profitable once you remove the cost of building materials, labor, and land.
      • csbrooks10 minutes ago
        Ok, but a more honest comparison here would be removing the cost of hiring architects and hiring lawyers to draft contracts, not all the per-house costs.
  • burgerboii2 hours ago
    I believe that their desire to slow down AI development is just for profits.

    Active competition requires constant reinvestment and does not allow them to milk their trained models long enough (except poor Haiku maybe).

  • maherbeg2 hours ago
    Is this community adjusted EBITDA?
  • surgical_firean hour ago
    > before accounting for revenue shared with distribution partners, including Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab, and the cost of training its model, the newspaper said.

    "We are profitable when we ignore our costs".

    I wonder what other funny strategy they may employ to claim 80% margins.

  • ChrisBland3 hours ago
    GAPP or ACSOI? Adjusted Consolidated Segment Operating Income from the groupon days....
  • jqpabc1233 hours ago
    Yes, but --- using something they call "adjusted operating income".

    This is reportedly a sort of "Enron" accounting which excludes some really big expenses like revenue sharing, the cost of model training and hardware deploymments which are kept off the corporate balance sheet using "special finance vehicles".

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/technology/artificial-intelligence...

    • sigmar3 hours ago
      >This is reportedly a sort of "Enron" accounting which excludes some really big expenses like revenue sharing, the cost of model training and hardware deploymments

      source? this seems false. reportedly the adjusted profitability includes inference and amortized training costs

      • jqpabc1233 hours ago
        source?

        Listed at the end of my post.

        this seems false.

        Source showing this in accordance with GAAP (Generally Acceptable Accounting Practices)?

        • sigmar2 hours ago
          that says only that the gross margin calculation excludes profit sharing and training. You should read it more carefully

          edit: def not gaap profitable or they would have said that to investors. and their stock-based comp is surely astronomically high on paper.

    • mixdup3 hours ago
      It's really easy to be profitable when you exclude all of your expenses
  • jimmydoe2 hours ago
    very convoluted, number game but probably works for casual investors who just want to put money in something.
    • ufish23518 minutes ago
      these are not casual investors - anthropic is not public
  • 3 hours ago
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  • winfredJa2 hours ago
    surprised by 80% margin that doesn't include training cost.
  • throwaway858253 hours ago
    GAAP or non GAAP profitable?
    • datadrivenangel3 hours ago
      non GAAP. If they were GAAP profitable they either wouldn't be sharing or would be IPOing already.
      • JumpCrisscross2 hours ago
        > If they were GAAP profitable they either wouldn't be sharing or would be IPOing already

        They'd be in their quiet period...

  • altmanaltman3 hours ago
    > Anthropic's gross margins are above 80% before accounting for revenue shared with distribution partners, including Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab, and the cost of training its model, the newspaper said.

    Yes the company known for famously training 1 model

    • layer83 hours ago
      The “opens new tab” sometimes drives me insane when using TTS to listen to Reuters articles. I’m assuming they are using the wrong CSS/markup for the purpose.
    • sobiolite3 hours ago
      Well fortunately now we're gonna be Pacing the Frontier.
      • unreal63 hours ago
        I cynically wonder how much of this "pacing" is a mutual decision to reduce training expenditure costs as OpenAI and Anthropic plan to IPO.
        • thewebguyd3 hours ago
          Or they've hit diminishing returns that will collapse their valuation, so saying "this is a threat to humanity" sounds better than "This is about as good as the tech is going to be for a long time" to investors.
        • stackskipton3 hours ago
          My guess is a ton. According to https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/monopoly-round-up-just-st..., they are asking for exception to anti trust as this type of collaboration would normally be massive anti trust violation.
    • 3 hours ago
      undefined
  • dr_faustus2 hours ago
    Pathetic! At my company, we have a 100% margin before accounting for cost!
  • GiorgioG3 hours ago
    This is Enron-level fraud. What would Ford/GM/Toyota's gross margins be without the cost of manufacturing vehicles?
    • maerF0x02 hours ago
      That's a bit hyperbolic. It's closer to using EBITDA as your "earnings" and bucketing model costs in a rapid depreciation model (which is fair, I'd assume a model is good for more than just 1 year...
      • JumpCrisscross2 hours ago
        It's gross margin. Not including training in gross margin is perfectly reasonable.
        • lovich2 hours ago
          The models don’t exist without training. I don’t see how excluding the training cost from the thing they are selling(inference) is perfectly reasonable and not just an accounting trick.

          If I am building a widget and have a widget factory that cost money to build and operate, is it reasonable to only use the cost of shipping my widgets to my buyer as the costs for my gross margin?

          • maerF0x02 hours ago
            Generally speaking, IDK about Anthropic specifically, they don't train purely from scratch though. A good chunk of the setup is reused previous models can serve as a basis for the next model. Plus there are methods that also use the previous model as a warm start.

            Just taking a wild guess, but I'd assume the .5 releases are built on the previous and the Majors (3, 4, 5) are more extensive retrains?

            • lovich2 hours ago
              That’s maybe a reasonable argument but it’s not one Anthropic is making.

              If the article is to be believed they aren’t including their training costs.

              Also lol at reporting it as above 80% without accounting for the revenue sharing as well.

              I bet anyone’s finances look great if you just start ignoring all the money they owe.

              • maerF0x02 hours ago
                > I bet anyone’s finances look great if you just start ignoring all the money they owe.

                Lol and truth.

          • s1artibartfastan hour ago
            This concern trolling on behalf of people that can't read to the end of a sentence, about a conversation that they aren't even part of.

            Anthropic is clear on what they are communicating. If every message had to be dumbed down to the level of the least attentive person to run across a message third hand, we could communicate and nothing but grunts.

            • nemomarx6 minutes ago
              I would like them to communicate something else though (ie reveal what their training costs are, how much revenue share they have and with who) so I could have some idea of their actual profit margins. They're not public yet so they're within rights to withhold that, but it does mean this isn't very useful information for a lot of questions one might have?
        • freejazz2 hours ago
          Unfortunately, just stating that something is reasonable does not make it true.
    • judge20202 hours ago
      More similar to if they took out the cost to design the cars and all the many levels of corporate overhead they have in the form of middle management.
  • exabrial3 hours ago
    [flagged]