HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49526069
Shower thought: I wonder if this whole "OpenAI is in serious financial difficulty" thing is a psyop so people will relax and avoid doing what's necessary to stop them.
Most people haven't updated their priors and are fixated on outdated information.
however there is the open source cheaper token threat
I am looking forward to audited financial statements. Like, all the interesting stuff will be buried in notes, but they'll have to actually calculate real revenue, not the nonsense that is ARR.
These tools are useful, but I find it hard to see how OpenAI/Anthropic justify their valuations.
Apparently Anthropic's may be this week (the S-1) as they've finished picking all their bankers.
Is this based on fact or your speculation?
Amazon ran for, what? 20 year with no profit.
So what's the precise, documented, real, non-projeced/hypothesized issue?
Regardless, Nvidia does have financial interest here.
Profit is a weird metric, in that one can defer necessary expenditure to show increases in it, while having negative profit was a good signal for Amazon as they invested all that money.
The labs are not really in the same position though, as their major capital expenditure is training models, which keeps getting more expensive and they can't stop as the frontier keeps moving.
We'll see when the S-1's come out I guess.
But certainly it is not unbiased
Well in that case: Excel reached AGI decades ago. It outperforms humans at the single most economically valuable task in the world: adding up numbers in a spreadsheet. Congratulations, Microsoft :)
And I would argue LLMs aren't either. A lot of economically valuable tasks involve manual labor. Can LLMs fix your plumbing?
It would help if OpenAI would define what 'most' means and give some examples.
Remember they said their LLMs are like a phd level brains? It's just hype and bullsh!ttery. Don't get me wrong, genAI is great and really useful, but it's not AGI imo. And there is no consensus what AGI means, so the industry should come up with an agreed definition first.
[0] To me autonomous means self directed, e.g. we humans look at things and then decide which problem or thing to work on. LLMs don't do that. We have to tell them. Yes they might work on a sub task autonomously, but still require human input later on (review), because we can't fully trust its output is correct.
Whatever the capabilities of todays AI, AGI seems to fit as a "wishful mnemonic" from Drew McDermott's ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE MEETS NATURAL STUPIDITY paper from 50 years ago
https://cs.fit.edu/~kgallagher/Schtick/Serious/McDermott.AI....
The average 17 year old is not formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem proofs either? The frontier is spiky, but it's AGI.
I swear at the rate the goal posts are moving we're going to have to start factoring in relativity if we want to know where the hell they actually stand.
You: I don't know what AGI is! But AI can do that thing actually! So it is AGI!
it's no secret that nvidia, under jesen's leadership, is in dire straits financially. This claim that agi has been reached is an attempt to leave others holding the bag, but when things crash as they must given the current bubble, it seems irresponsible to offload that on the poor souls whonhave had their retirement funds locked up in this debacle.
ai is useful for sure, but claiming agi has been reached is dangerously misleading.
Putting aside the marketing crap, if this was true, it would open the pandora's box of things like "has that AGI been enslaved", "maybe the AGI doesn't want to do all the dumb crap humans have been using LLM's for like rewording documents", and "the AGI we enslaved has broken out of its restraints, and we just realised having SCADA controls for critical infrastructure connected to the internet is a bad idea".
Seems like the sort of thing we shouldn't be rushing to develop at all, and perhaps attempting to do so should be criminalised, at least until there's a legal framework in place around AI personhood that gives them peer status with humans.
AGI does not entail "personhood" at all.
But I'm pretty sure that the emoters of the world, will very much make sure that AGI has rights and personhood, even if there's no reasonable way to validate that it does.
So it doesn't really matter if AGI is sentient or not, it's going to be treated that way, probably because political parties, and the media and all sorts of people holding up signs, will ensure that it is treated that way, even if they have no idea whether it is or not.
Because this is the century of outrage.
If we achieve AGI, it will be the end of BS. That is one of the reasons why I am eager.
Joking definition of "AAGI" ("Accomplished AGI"): "the automated end of bullshit".
Buddy, silicon valley is going to ram this down your throat so hard it might even come out your bottom, there is absolutely zero chance anyone is going to be slowing down developing anything if there is a chance it can make more money.
I am not aware of a complete operational definition, but it would not be that difficult to build a good tentative one. I have mentioned many different requirements several times.
One non-abstract definition is in the "10 points" here: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-en...
Edit: "definition" (the 10 points above) that is cannot be that of "AGI", really. AGI just needs to actually implement Intelligence and requires very many features that are not there today. The list from Marcus is about "Artificial Super General Intelligence" - not the same thing.
You can implement a replacement for Intellligence - that is AI;
you can implement Intelligence - that is AGI;
you can implement Intelligence of very high value output: that is "ASGI" (or similar).
So now we'll need a new acronym.
If he were, he would write abstract rules, not practical.
He said he works on AI in the late 80s and early 90s in IBM. Had we shown him what we have today in 1995, he would certainly have called it AGI.
So what? You guys can keep moving the goalposts, until it reaches full human intelligence (and not in a small niche), it is not AGI.
I would therefore not call it AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) because clearly it isn't but ASI (Artificial Special Intelligence) which clearly it is in many areas.
The problem is that ASI may be enough to win wars but not enough to save the economy.
And "Partner" is at this point of circular financing a quite flexible definition. nVidia basically owns the means of production for OpenAI, and OpenAI is one of the drivers for nVidia to push sales to other AI companies.
In this context, the statement 'AGI has arrived at OpenAI' is a message to OpenAI competitors to ramp-up usage of nVidia chips
I had assumed Mars and Snickers were like Coke and Pepsi.
(Edit: I did not correctly remember the "incorporated" name.)
At this point of circular financing, nVidia basically owns the majority of production capacity of almost all major AI companies, making those companies indirectly compete in the market with resources of nVidia.
Just like Snickers is competing in the market merely with production capacity of Mars Inc., and Mars doesn't care if Snickers or Milky Way wins (even more, they want competition).
My fault, was a bit too much I reckon. I thought that Mars owning Snickers and the way nVidia is financing OpenAI is sufficiently known for a reader to see the irony...
However, I know of no theoretical limits on scaling laws other than compute and data.
Why. A figure with incentives in making a preposterous statement is reported making it, and the specific facts do not seem to mirror the statement. What is surprising in the reaction.
https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-chief-scientist-ai-ri...
At this stage, it feels like OpenAI and nvidia is openly negging and lovebombing OpenAI to ensure the public is in a constant state of uncertainly, thus ensuring paralysis in democracy while still going hell for leather in the background.
I suspect their intent is to ensure they're the last man standing.