Look. This is a new golden age of cocaine, because of the big cuts in everything in the US took away the cocaine busting operations in Colombia and Bolivia, because the revolutionaries that previously kept control of it stood down and became a political party and new, profit-driven cartels came up, and because battery technology means that narcosubs and similar drone things work much better than before (and they can be made remote-operated, so the cops can't do shit even when they find one). Wholesale prices have halved or gone down 60% to like, 12k usd / kilo, street prices commensurate. The huge new opportunities created by increased market size have increased competition and made the cartel nature of the cartels decrease. So always think of that when you look at people acting like this and having such megalomaniac goals.

I see myself over $3000T in potential revenues too. You shall see. Please invest.

$30T? Why not $100T? $1000T? Why not $1 trillion trillion? If we're just pulling numbers out of our asses we may as well go big.

The issue with models and Claude in general is that I don’t know anymore what model selection and thinking level are for. When first released, Opus 5 worked well; now it's crap. We have no control or visibility over what is really happening on the other end. You don’t know what is really running on the other end. Our incentives are misaligned: Anthropic gets paid per token - some abstract unit of measure that keeps changing all the time - while I pay for a problem to be solved. So it's Anthropic’s interest to waste as many tokens as possible, producing garbage cheaply.

Opus 5 has been absolutely horrible last couple of days, writing essays of code and comments, fixing one thing, breaking another. Finally switched to GPT 5.6 Sol and Terra, and it's so much better. But I had a similar experience before switching to Opus 4.8, so how long will that last...

When all this crashes, future historians will look back and wonder how so many got hoodwinked by AI.

Some of these future historians might even be reading this Hacker News thread.

To any future historians reading this, many of us did know this AI stock bonanza was just a modern day tulip mania. Alas many wealthy people did get hoodwinked though.

According to Reuters which refers to this WSJ article [0], $30T is the TAM. Calling it potential revenue is a huge stretch.

Not justifying as this number as it is stupidly large, but theoretically if AI replaced all White collar workers in the World it will come to around $30T or so (Gemini said it’s $36T-$37T based on some calculations using global GDP, labor share, white collar share etc)

TAM is always stupidly large in decks, disconnected from reality. Every startup has a deck with TAM in billions.

[0] https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/anthropic-exp...

Is it realistic to expect every person on earth to pay them $3,500?

2025 revenue numbers:

  - Microsoft $281 billion
  - Apple $416 billion
  - Google $402 billion

Seems likely that a company renting most of their hardware will generate multiples more cash than these established players

Before you dump it, you have to pump it...

In other words, we are to see a media barrage leading up to the IPO to get retail investors to jump on the stock.

There is still no way to search or filter your list of projects in the Claude sidebar, or get it to show you the active ones.

Ah, so it's not just their products that hallucinate.

What will inflation have to be for us to reach that?

The only obstacle is everyone using it for everything

That is a typo. It is a Q not a T ! How could we have missed it

Puts once they IPO

What are they currently making?

Yep, 92% of estimated US GDP in 2026. That sounds totally plausible to me.

Over what period of time?

The combined revenue of the SP500 ~$18.28T, or ~14.8% of global GDP in 2025 (~118.35T). So is anthropic really saying that they expect to have 1.64x the revenue of the SP500 or that the total addressable revenue for AI they suspect is $30T? That number is at least plausible but expect to earn 25% of global GDP is a bit whacky unless you've drunk a lot of koolaid

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They should focus on fixing claude code, as I just canceled my 200/month subscription for codex because it's quality has degraded so much.

I remember how 3 years ago the consensus, even here, was it was a fad or unsustainable.

That's awesome! I also predict that Leopold Aschenbrenner will be the world's first trillionaire under 30!

PS: Not.

As you mock them, notice that they again emotionally provoked the public, using words that disrupt people's feeling of safety and stability and therefore which bypass their cognitive processes and hit directly in their emotions and alarm. That's the goal.

The mocking is usually an attempt to get back some equilibrium, to regain leverage, to make the scary threat into something smaller.

So it looks like their tactic worked yet again. Why is it a goal? One aim is to seize and hold the initiative, and also to make you compliant when they do further transgressive or dangerous things.

Honestly though, if they legitimately achieve RSI, I feel like all bets are off and anything could happen.

I have a feeling a lot of people here read the headline, hit the paywall, and had a reaction. This is just the ridiculous estimate of TAM that every IPO contains, and it's always a complete clown show. Uber set their TAM at $6T in 2019. They currently do $50B per year in revenue. SpaceX set theirs at $28.5T on $18B of revenue. These numbers are not to be taken seriously at all. Each claim has to be more outrageous than the last because that, after all, is what they're selling in their IPO.

https://archive.is/iJskQ

This is delusional. Are you ready for the biggest short ever?

Now AI companies are playing with ridiculous Enron-level accounting tricks to justify their already inflated valuations?

It’s heartening to see that most of HN is starting to call shenanigans on these ridiculous numbers.

So I'm guessing that's the same $billion passed around these companies 30,000 times, then, right? If we're just pulling numbers out of thin air, I think I want to make $6723 kajillion dollars this year, and if I don't, I'm going to whine!

This shit is getting so fucking exhausting. No, you're not going to make $30 trillion. Ever. It's second-hand embarrassing how high these idiots are after huffing their own farts.

I hope it crashes and burns -hard-, and the 'wealth' of these insipid billionaire sociopaths 'leading' these operations evaporates so they're just another crank on the street corner so they're easier to ignore.

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