Even in my non-SWE job, paying $100/mo for my current $20/mo plan would still be a no-brainer.
I don't think there is much concern about open models either. Compute is constrained for the foreseeable future, and money is what will determine who gets it. Nevermind that the US will likely block Chinese model imports or China will block exports at some point. The cold war has already begun here.
We still have 2billion+ people offline. Looking at global population is the wrong reference frame for selling a $100/mo service.
The average American family won’t be willing to pay more than a Netflix subscription.
I think in five years, it will only be power users that use a model in its raw form - everyone else will mostly consume using wrapper apps.
Just look at software over the last 20 years. People pay based on the value they receive, not the cost the produce or serve it. That fact is literally is the backbone of tech, and why it has been an absolute money machine.
I think the worst case scenario for the labs is current (or next gen) SoTA models reaching a point where cheap consumer hardware can fully run them. But the labs practically have a monopsony on compute, and getting the kind of long context current models thrive on out of 16GB GDDR6 is gonna be a trick.
Another bozo who read a intro microeconomics textbook, learned a fancy word, and doesn't know how to apply it! LOL.
Wow you people on here are really funny.
Most people shouldn't open their mouths / write anything re. valuation TBH.
There's a reason why a company like Stripe can stay private far longer than Anthropic or OpenAI can.
These AI companies have taken in all the capital from private investors and are still losing hundreds of billions and have no choice but to hype up the IPO and dump some of the stock at a purposefully inflated valuation to retail investors.
https://www.sec.gov/resources-small-businesses/exempt-offeri...
The S-1 has to include, among other things, three years of audited financial statements, plus interim statements (unaudited). It will cover both revenue and expenses, the latter breaking out things like cost of revenue, R&D, sales and marketing etc.
Based on the (unofficial but reported) IPO target date of late Sep to early Oct, the S-1 will have to be made public in a few weeks from now.
The financials were always bad. Everyone with half a brain avoided the IPO. Did you?
Why are you posting about stuff you have zero clue about?
Oh theres no positive side... yes there is. There is a huge amount of failure risk weighing on both OAI and Anthropic - investors don't care about how great you claim your technology is gonna be. They want to know if a viable buisiness model is taking form and whether you will be around long enough given the investment time horizon of the investor.
Right now China is making that failure risk even larger. This directly affects the IPO.
FCFF = EBIT(1-t) - Reinvestment.
This is how the operating assets are valued via intrinsic valuation.
Could they generate immense earnings and cash flows net of reinvestment? Sure. DO I believe so? Nope. They've got way too out infront ahead of their skies about where this technology belongs and operates best.
Both OAI and Anthropic tried to time their pricing to look good heading into an IPO window.
They got screwed as China has kept up. Wonder how they're gonna overcome this problem - protectionism? Maybe.
Very impressive growth for sure (they doubled in around a month?), but we don’t know the ratio of paying seats