44 pointsby 16594470916 hours ago6 comments
  • glaslong3 hours ago
    You know, I didn't expect the Insider Trading Casinos to be quite so brazenly evil. I really thought they'd have wanted to keep a lower profile, and not appear so urgently in need of being regulated or sued out of existence. They even had the template of "Sports Betting" to work from.
    • DANmodean hour ago
      They were already illegal! Why be careful, they know they’ve got the social trend and the regulatory bodies on their sides.
  • gordian-mind37 minutes ago
    > Kalshi claims such bets will provide a new source of information about which drugs will get approved, and what clinical trials will show promising results, which the company says can help investors decide what new drugs to fund.

    That's correct.

    > "If we were running a trial for an oncology drug that requires an infusion, a pharmacist who had placed a bet saying that it's gonna work well, or doesn't work well, could obviously adjust the infusion rate, could adjust the source temperature of the drug," he said. "They could change any number of variables that could obviously have a direct impact [on] how the trial and the data and the patient safety would come out."

    Funnily enough, a prediction market arguably improves this situation as well. A pharmacist, or one of their relatives, openly taking a large position against a trial's success would be far more likely to attract scrutiny than, say, a pharmacist being secretly paid by a competitor to interfere with the trial.

    And in the latter case, if the trial's outcome deviated sharply from a market consensus, that discrepancy could itself provide a reason for closer scrutiny.

    • glaslong17 minutes ago
      Will there be anyone hanging around to scrutinize though? The pharmacist patsy maybe, but whoever bribed them is already paid out and off doing their laundry
  • jeffreyames3 hours ago
    It seems like a case where betting can actually save lives and steer people towards the best solutions. They are worried that workers will tamper with results to make trails fail for a quick buck. If that’s possible they need better observation practices and for these workers to go to jail. But I doubt anyone offended by this betting believes these perverse incentives. Deep down what they are offended by is the unfortunate fact that drugs do fail. But the solution is to allocate resources thoughtfully and fairly to the best candidates, and I’m not seeing how betting interferes with that
    • idiotsecant3 hours ago
      This is exactly the sort of bad incentives that lead to things like deliberately throwing drug trials. Very small amounts of money make people do horrible things every day, by what magic would this be an exception?
      • kwikiel3 hours ago
        Usually the reverse problem is happening - company does pump its stock based on potentially having their drug accepted but it’s usually the case that it will be rejected - but you don’t k ow that for sure for many years - prediction market may help here
      • andaian hour ago
        > Very small amounts of money make people do horrible things every day,

        What is this referring to?

        • glaslong27 minutes ago
          Turns out the Spokane wildfire was arson initiated. While Kalshi and PM have bets going on wildfire predictions.

          I don't think there's a smoking Molotov there yet, but the incentives sure don't seem great!

          Doesn't seem a huge leap there. Nor does a pissed off janitor who could turn $100 into $1,000 by trashing the wrong samples. Or a bigger player who can turn their $500k into $5M by paying that janitor $1,000.

        • tencentshillan hour ago
          Russia and Iran are known to hire teenagers online to kill targets in Europe for little money.
          • zaik10 minutes ago
            I never heard of this. Do we know somebody who was killed this way?
  • 2 hours ago
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  • anotherhue2 hours ago
    To be fair buying securities or derivatives ahead of a pharma results announcement is pretty common already.

    Not to excuse these guys for all their other awfulness of course.

  • Ekaros3 hours ago
    How is such bets any different than options trading? If one is reasonable I don't see why the other would be that much different.
    • watwut2 hours ago
      Options trading is particularly bad example, because the buyer can choose whether they exercise it or not. You can just let the option expire.

      But yes, there is portion of "investing" that is actually gambling. That is what Enron did and it threw down the economy. Those gamblers usually loose and we have quite a lot of regulations trying to restrict the impact of that gambling.

      And yes, the usual suspect hate those regulations.

    • idiotsecant3 hours ago
      If we bet on where fires will occur and I have empty pockets and a book of matches that's a little different than options trading.

      As with most terrible behaviors when a few people do it the results to society aren't so bad. When it gains potential for mass application of the same behavior it becomes a crisis.

      • DANmodean hour ago
        Unfortunately your example gets a little foggier once you consider options and futures during a period like the one the US is currently in with Iran.
        • glaslong13 minutes ago
          Like when your buddies trade crude on weekdays but you get to flip the War switch on/off all weekend?
    • 3 hours ago
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