76 pointsby pondsideran hour ago20 comments
  • eigenspacean hour ago
    Quite the funny headline. It initially made me think that someone had come up with some sort of quantitative measure of the situational awareness of traders, and was claiming that there was an increase in traders making dumb trades that misread the situation or something.

    Ironically, I would describe this selloff as an increase in situational awareness.

    • HarHarVeryFunny20 minutes ago
      Well, effectively that is kinda what it is saying, although it's the situational awareness of one particular trader it's referring to. The situational awareness of Citadel who scooped up their portfolio at fire sale prices seems quite good!
    • willchisan hour ago
      Ha yes it definitely reads like an Onion headline.
    • deadbabe4 minutes ago
      I would definitely be interested in seeing someone come up with some kind of “situational awareness” index, to evaluate how much the market actually knows about what it’s investing in.
    • NooneAtAll3an hour ago
      [flagged]
      • 13unk0wnan hour ago
        > Leopold Aschenbrenner’s hedge-fund firm Situational Awareness is down around 67% so far in July after incurring heavy losses on AI stocks...
        • HarHarVeryFunny18 minutes ago
          More than just down - liquidated (sold to Citadel) due to pending margin calls.
        • jrrvan hour ago
          Literally the first line
          • temp082622 minutes ago
            When I read a title it helps me to determine whether I want to read it or not. This one is tricky and confusing because the company name is stupid and was probably picked for the clickbait potential. This is absolutely one where I read the comments before the link.
      • bspammeran hour ago
        The link is right there, and the answer is in the first paragraph.
        • an_account31 minutes ago
          All I see is a paywall
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          • iso163123 minutes ago
            All I see is an accusation of being a robot
          • bspammer30 minutes ago
            The paywall does not cover the first paragraph
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  • scrlkan hour ago
    > Aschenbrenner party blamed short sellers who targeted the firm’s positions for exacerbating the fund’s losses, the letter said. The letter compared Situational’s experience to a bank run.

    4 years ago, it was SBF blaming Changpeng Zhao for shorting FTT and triggering a run on FTX.

    Now another EA has followed the path of making a lot of money relatively quickly and losing it just as fast, using the exact same arguments for why it happened.

    • mamonster27 minutes ago
      >Now another EA has followed the path of making a lot of money relatively quickly and losing it just as fast, using the exact same arguments for why it happened.

      I would be very interested to know what he did with the management and performance fees (and how much they were) he gathered over the last 3 years. Just the perf fees from 2025 are probably enough to set him up for life. If he reinvested not so great.

      • hn_throwaway_9914 minutes ago
        > I would be very interested to know what he did with the management and performance fees

        I mean, I'm pretty sure he pocketed the money and got richer. Most hedge fund compensation structure has always (ironically, I'd add, given the name "hedge" fund) incentivized volatility over long term performance.

    • stephbook9 minutes ago
      Even Wirecard – a fraudulent German bank missing some billions of euros and run by a Russian spy – always blamed bad press.

      Denials mean nothing.

    • 2PqboPPmKegvanx41 minutes ago
      >Now another EA has followed the path of making a lot of money relatively quickly and losing it just as fast

      let's be clear here - he didn't actually "lose" a ton of money. he was up 439% net in the first half of 2026.

      his issue was getting margin called due to being short on software (which went up) and long on AI infra (which went down) - getting margin called != losing money.

      • chollida120 minutes ago
        > let's be clear here - he didn't actually "lose" a ton of money. he was up 439% net in the first half of 2026.

        He's down 67% on the month. He most certainly lost alot of money.

        He'll be fine and i think he'll be successful at raising more money, and he's still up on the year as far as I've been told by LP's, but he sure did lose alot of money this month.

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      • uncivilized34 minutes ago
        Yes he lost a ton of money. He went from being up as much as you said to up only 80% and getting liquidated at that point. If it weren’t for Citadel stepping in to buy his investments who knows how much worse it could have gotten.

        The only thing you can argue is realized vs unrealized.

    • RIMR39 minutes ago
      Sounds like someone took huge risks, incurred huge losses, and thought they were entitled to always win. It honestly feels good seeing these folks get knocked down a peg.
  • vessenesan hour ago
    This is everywhere. For reference, former FTXer and OpenAIer raised $225m into a hedge fund structure, went long and short, and reportedly peaked at $40bn of value; leverage bit hard this week and they sold their entire-ish portfolio to Citadel at $10bn. (Which, I imagine was very likely aiming at this outcome in their trading in the last few weeks).

    Not reported anywhere -- was additional money raised in to the fund, and what is the LP basis? The story might be: wunderkind 40x+ed his first hedge fund and sold it to Citadel, or it might be: wunderkind raised $20bn and turned it into $10bn fast trading against Citadel.

    Inquiring minds want to know!

    • Aboutplantsan hour ago
      Either way he ended up with enough money for a pardon
      • drexlspiveyan hour ago
        Pardon for what? The crime of losing money?
        • laidoffamazon13 minutes ago
          Anything he wants!
        • RIMR32 minutes ago
          Believe it or not, you are legally bound to act in the interests of shareholders.

          Though you cannot be pardoned from civil stuff, and the options to actually prosecute are pretty slim, so I doubt it.

          Though, even if this is just tongue-in-cheek, you can literally buy a pardon in America right now with just a little bit a money into the pockets of the Trump family, in case you didn't get the joke (that the US government is literally pro-corruption right now).

          • mikestew23 minutes ago
            Believe it or not, you are legally bound to act in the interests of shareholders.

            Though a common Internet trope, this is incorrect. However, “legally” or not, you might find yourself unemployed should you ignore the shareholders.

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      • 2PqboPPmKegvanxan hour ago
        what law are you insinuating Aschenbrenner broke?
        • jghnan hour ago
          I say this with absolutely no evidence and only stating it as a hypothetical. But as an example it would be plausible that insider trading was involved.
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          • infecto39 minutes ago
            Then why state it?
            • axus7 minutes ago
              Because Hacker News appreciates discussion of the theoretical, that exceeds the bounds of what mainstream society thought was possible.
              • infecto2 minutes ago
                Since when does HN discussion appreciate unfounded accusations? Stop blowing smoke.

                Yes going down threads of discussion but not calling insider trading without any evidence. The fund was massively levered, that is a large part of the reason it did so well.

          • 2PqboPPmKegvanx44 minutes ago
            trust us, it's quite clear you have no knowledge about the topic you are speaking on.
    • changoplataneroan hour ago
      Say more about how citadel made this happen with their trading?
      • vessenesan hour ago
        To be clear, I'm not claiming Citadel created double digit drops in SK Hynix / Samsung. I am saying that as market vol hits, vol traders might choose to make it worse. And when word hits the street someone has a liquidity position, prop traders WILL come and pressure. SA's filings were clear how concentrated they were, and this was known. In this case, Citadel (hedge fund) bought, while I imagine Citadel Securities would have been doing this (speculated upon) trading. We'll know more when the filings come out though. I'll be curious what of the portfolio they kept and what they worked / rolled in the market
      • infectoan hour ago
        Firms like citadel will run crowding analytics, who owns what, at what leverage and rough margin trigger points. Over simplifying but they could be shorting the longs and going long on the shorts. Everyone generally knew situational was heavily levered.
      • jvsg_an hour ago
        Citadel spread the rumor that the Fed was going to hike rates this week. This led to Situational Awareness getting margin called on their longs.
        • energy12317 minutes ago
          That's a meme conspiracy theory on twitter that nobody in the industry takes seriously.
        • moralestapia41 minutes ago
          Quite similar to CZ and FTX.
    • moralestapia42 minutes ago
      Wow, so, he narrowly avoided prison while at FTX, then went to work for Scam Altman, now does "investment funds" (a classic trope).

      The guy really really really wants to end up in prison, lol.

  • cmiles823 minutes ago
    An inexperienced portfolio manager that’s never seen a down tech market in his life has created a massively leveraged position on frothy assets in a bubble and the bubble is looking ill. What could possibly go wrong.

    Many of these AI plays are massively entangled and leveraged. It all looks good until it doesn’t and when there’s a hiccup things unravel quickly and exponentially. I fully expect in the next 12 months we’re going to see some rather spectacular investment implosions with folks losing their shirts. Get your popcorn ready.

  • asatsan hour ago
    >Even including July's losses, the fund remains up about 80% on the year

    Spectacular blowup and a lesson on leverage, but let's not miss this line.

    • cmiles8a minute ago
      You’re missing the core story which is that they don’t have a returns crisis they have a liquidity crisis. Finds don’t blow up because they have bad returns. Funds implode because they have no cash to cover their calls and other needs for cash.
    • bpodgursky39 minutes ago
      It's hopeless, people see what they want to see.
  • ymolodtsov30 minutes ago
    I like how Matt Levine formulated it.

    His thesis was correct. The problem is, his thesis was measured in years if not decades when his funding was measured in days and hours.

  • neom14 minutes ago
    Worth noting, even with the margin call, he's still up 80% on the year: https://www.ft.com/content/a0a5e3a7-c4e6-42a6-9a7b-a780422bc...
  • bix631 minutes ago
    Situational Awareness. Fitting name.
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  • alasran hour ago
    Martin Shkreli breaks down the collapse of Situational Awareness: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49119380
    • malfistan hour ago
      Why are you promoting content by Martin Shkreli? You know, the guy who committed securities fraud to rip off desperate patients?
      • loco5nineran hour ago
        I really don't like this guy, seriously he's a shark (he's probably right, but what a jerk): "If you know somebody has to liquidate, the best thing you have to do, unfortunately, sadly, Darwinian is to go sell all the positions you have in common, then start shorting everything they have. It accelerates the downfall as quickly as you can." of course then he says 'It's nothing I would ever do...'
        • infectoan hour ago
          That’s truly the playbook when you are on the other side of a levered firm though.
          • loco5niner36 minutes ago
            Yeah, probably. Its too bad.
            • ymolodtsov29 minutes ago
              If there's any purpose in hedge funds as a structure it's that they provide liquidity for the market. So it's in everyone's best interest to let them do price discovery against each other.
            • infecto35 minutes ago
              Why too bad? This is how the market ultimately comes to the right price.
            • literalAardvark15 minutes ago
              Not really.

              Using leverage has risks that you're supposed to understand before you do it.

              It's not a free lunch, unless you're putting the sharks' interest ahead of yours. Or clueless, which was the case here, as L.A. is not a trader and has no business running a fund.

      • literalAardvark36 minutes ago
        Because hn is primarily about competence, knowledge and tech, which Martin has in spades.

        The arguments against him barely hold water in general anyway.

        • fred_is_fred15 minutes ago
          A federal jury sure thought they held water.
          • literalAardvark7 minutes ago
            Martin was convicted on three counts of securities fraud. The TL;DR is he was shilling a successful fund while sitting on massive losses. A Madoff kinda thing.

            This has nothing to do with what people actually hate him for, and for which he was not convicted, because extracting money from a captive clientele is exactly what the US healthcare system is designed to do.

        • eigenspace22 minutes ago
          lmao
      • gesshaan hour ago
        You can still learn from thieves and crooks. Especially if they break down what they did and how they did it.
        • dgellow41 minutes ago
          Just keep in mind you might be the mark of his current scheme
      • baggachipz22 minutes ago
        He's an absolute ghoul, and to see sibling comments praising him breaks my heart. Yeah, he "did his time", but he also took advantage of sick people for immense profit. You don't get a pass for that.
      • rib3yean hour ago
        He has done more for wallstreet-to-mainstreet transparency than you believe.

        His investor literacy youtube backlog is unusually deep and as of yet has only shilled his own trading product.

        But your point is valid, he will never live down the fraud conviction and his face is so punchable.

        • dgellow42 minutes ago
          The shady crypto projects he did after his release are also good reasons to distrust the guy
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      • WarmWashan hour ago
        Like black hats getting cyber sec jobs, they probably know a thing or two.
      • jakevoytkoan hour ago
        If you’re gonna be a hater you at least gotta do it right! The pricing and the securities fraud were two separate things you can count against him.
      • infectoan hour ago
        He is one of the few folks in finance who regularly streams and is directionally interesting. He served his time.
      • r_leean hour ago
        I don't think those two cases are related

        he's a relatively well known figure in finance and pharma investing

      • jvuygbbkuurxan hour ago
        He has served his time for those crimes
      • petesergeantan hour ago
        Because he’s an expert.

        Edit: I don't do podcasts but this is absolutely worth some of your time to watch.

      • ForHackernewsan hour ago
        seems like someone who is knowledgeable about financial shenanigans
      • zetanoran hour ago
        Can you provide a comparable or superior analysis by someone else?
  • foltik25 minutes ago
    Where do I sign up to get $100M to dump into long AI positions?
  • francisofascii43 minutes ago
    Which AI stocks suffered a rout?
    • marcosdumay12 minutes ago
      SPCX is getting lower and lower, MSFT is currently down 15% in an year, Oracle is close to 50% YoY...
  • redwood36 minutes ago
    Incredible that the founder is engaged to be wed this very weekend to the chief of staff to Anthropic's CEO
  • next_xibalba11 minutes ago
    And yet:

    > Despite the July losses, Situational Awareness remains up about 80% on the year and holds a portfolio of investments in private companies including Anthropic.

    80% return (YTD) is the type of performance for which many hedge fund managers would sacrifice their first born.

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  • boringgan hour ago
    Yesterdays news. High leverage. Sounds like citadel got a deal.
  • liquid15311 minutes ago
    [dead]
  • iluvcommunism42 minutes ago
    [dead]
  • dogmayoran hour ago
    Shocking to see a highly levered and highly concentrated fund blow out /s