143 pointsby nateb20222 hours ago18 comments
  • NitpickLawyer2 hours ago
    This will be interesting for a few reasons. First, depending on where the median pricing settles w/ 3rd party providers will tell us what it costs to serve a 3T model. Since it's going to be mxfp4 native, it'll take ~1.5TB of VRAM to host this, which is juuust at the limit of 8xb200s (but realistically you'll need 16x for context / throughput optimisation). Won't be cheap to host, but at least we should get some range of $/MTok for a 3T model. Then we'll be able to guesstimate if "labs are subsidising tokens on API pricing".

    Also interesting to see what effort it will take to fine-tune this beast. The latest AISI benchmarks on cybersec place it above glm5.2, but still way way behind SotA closed models. Some fine-tuning might be needed here. Also, interesting to see if Cursor does another training round on it, to directly compare it w/ kimi2.6/2.7 fine-tunes (composer series) and grok4.5.

    Also also, interesting to see if someone takes on distilling (proper distillation, w/ training the entire distribution) from this into smaller models. (dsv4-kimi should be really good, since dsv4 is very cheap to serve)

    • vb-8448a minute ago
      > Then we'll be able to guesstimate if "labs are subsidising tokens on API pricing".

      No, you don't. Without training cost you can infer only the marginal cost of serving this kind of models.

      Moreover, you don't know the actual size of closed models (what if Fable is a 10T model? What if it's 1T?)

    • woctordho32 minutes ago
      Speaking of finetune, currently a common practice is LoRA over bnb 4-bit base model, but I think it's time to replace bnb with GGUF as the base model format. GGUF is actively supporting new model architectures and more aggressive quantizations.

      I've made some proof of concept in https://github.com/woct0rdho/transformers5-qwen3.5-recipe . We can finetune Qwen3.5-35B-A3B in 16 GiB VRAM, and DeepSeek-V4-Flash (284B-A13B) in 90 GiB VRAM, without CPU offload. This works well on unified memory machines like Strix Halo.

      Even so, larger models like Kimi-K3 still require multiple GPUs and nodes, and there are a lot more to do compare to single-GPU training.

    • dist-epoch35 minutes ago
      > if "labs are subsidising tokens on API pricing"

      > SemiAnalysis estimates that Anthropic's current blended gross margin has risen to the mid-60% range, with the API business gross margin exceeding 80%

      Of course, people will insist "they are lying", "why should we believe them, it's well known they subsidize API pricing", ...

      https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/anthropic-3q26-profit-...

      https://finance.biggo.com/news/02d45650-b569-4d12-b44d-8d6d8...

      • NitpickLawyer33 minutes ago
        Agreed. My (somewhat educated) guess is that top labs have healthy margins on API pricing. But this release will add another 3rd party / clear of conflict datapoint in this estimation.
      • knollimar10 minutes ago
        That numner blends in training or no?
  • KronisLV4 minutes ago
    I feel like most hardware to run LLMs on is shaped wrong for individuals.

    It's either having a model struggling along with like 5-10 tokens per second on unified memory, or data center cards with hundreds of GB of VRAM consuming like kW of power. It doesn't seem like there's prosumer GPUs with like 180W-250W TDP and 128 GB or 256 GB of VRAM (one can dream).

    Obviously nobody is running Kimi K3 locally without an insanely beefy homelab and lots of money to burn, but running GLM 5.2 would be cool at like ~100 tokens per second for a single session and maybe ~60 tokens per second with N subagents.

    How unfortunate.

  • gorgmah22 minutes ago
    We already know that competition brought GLM 5.2 prices down roughly 45% since its release on June 16th (1.5 months ago), and the price downward slope is probably still going (I've been checking regularly and new providers keep fighting on price, I don't think prices have settled yet). For reference : https://openrouter.ai/z-ai/glm-5.2#providers

    I saw arguments like "Providers cannot price less than their costs" in other comments. In economics, it's generally admitted that they shouldn't price less than their marginal costs, i.e. in their case roughly the cost of electricity, since a lot of these datacenters are not at capacity in terms of graphics cards usage (speculation since it's very easy to rent a GC for a couple hours on some providers). My guess is that someone will be selling tokens at less than electricity + depreciation of GCs soon, since there's a lot of competition and "smaller" data centers have overcapacity? This is speculation, correct me if I'm wrong

    • markasoftware10 minutes ago
      Press x to doubt on the 45% number. The cheaper providers on open router are fp4 vs fp8 for official zai. There are some cheap fp8 ones (like novita) but the ui makes it seem like it's a temporary promotion, with their normal prices being almost equal to official zai (idk much about open router so not really sure what's going on with these discounts)
    • wanick4 minutes ago
      [dead]
  • colortiles11 minutes ago
    This looks really promising. Excited to see where this goes. Looking forward to trying it out!
  • maelito42 minutes ago
    Did someone run censorship and political bias tests on this ? Must be interesting.
    • 18 minutes ago
      undefined
  • wwwhizzan hour ago
    That would be 7/27.
    • broodbucket43 minutes ago
      20270727 if we're improving dates :)
      • c7b33 minutes ago
        270727 if we want to save tokens :)
        • darkwater22 minutes ago
          Y2K100 bug for you, then ;)
      • fragmede30 minutes ago
        ISO 8601 ftw
      • m00dy34 minutes ago
        Looks like another LeetCode problem about checking for anagrams.
    • raan hour ago
      or 27/7 for the rest of the world
      • LeonM27 minutes ago
        No, 27-7 for the rest of the world.

        The separator is often the only way to distinguish American notation from ISO, so please use a dash for dd-mm-yy and a forward slash for mm/dd/yy

    • linzhangrun25 minutes ago
      China uses YYYY/MM/DD, which is logical.
      • _zoltan_22 minutes ago
        the only logical format.

        signed: a hungarian :)

        • JSR_FDED2 minutes ago
          lpszReleaseDate ;-)
  • rs3811 minutes ago
    is there a realistic way to distill 2 consumer hardware friendly models with max ~200B and ~20B? Qwen did it, but would it be possible for 3rd parties (unsloth etc)?
    • embedding-shape9 minutes ago
      Yeah, why not. Toughest part is running the hardware so you can create the traces for downstream training, but once over that hump, nothing would stop you from doing that no.
  • davidkunzan hour ago
    This is historic. For the first time, an open-weights LLM is right at the top.

    We won't be able to run this ourselves, but many providers can.

    • embedding-shape7 minutes ago
      > For the first time, an open-weights LLM is right at the top.

      Hmm, not quite true, I think that honor, for better or worse, goes to OpenAI. When they released GPT2 (or GPT1 for that matter) is was quite literally the SOTA in the ecosystem when it was released.

  • pmg199122 minutes ago
    Hoping no issues on Huggingface due to download rush.
  • sreekanth85028 minutes ago
    how feasible its will be to run on modal or deepinfra? anyone here tried and tested such large models running?
  • minimaxir9 minutes ago
    ...does Hugging Face have enough bandwidth to let people download en masse however much file size a 2 trillion parameters model is?
  • CodeCompostan hour ago
    Why is there a countdown?
    • broodbucket42 minutes ago
      You're not having a party?
      • InsideOutSanta14 minutes ago
        I think it's shameful that Moonshot isn't providing us with party kits like Microsoft did with the Windows 7 Launch Party kit. How am I supposed to properly celebrate this without fun Kimi-themed quizzes for my guests?
    • mythz35 minutes ago
      It's a release party
  • marvinLuck40 minutes ago
    The weightings should be released on July 27.
  • throwaw1227 minutes ago
    Strange communists, giving away such an expensive model to the public.

    On the other note, can't wait to see 1bit quantisation soon and how it performs in benchmarks, if it performs really well in benchmarks, would be very good news for GPU hosting providers, to offer "Opus 4.5 level model at the cost of Haiku 4.5"

  • m00dyan hour ago
    There’s going to be a lot of competition around this model. Let’s see how low AI providers are willing to push prices.
    • torginus34 minutes ago
      I think the results might be underwhelming - AI providers need to turn a profit and can't subsidize, and they're working off of the commodity hardware everyone does.

      I wouldn't be surprised if they started offering potentiall bad quantizations with much reduced capability at lower prices (without telling the users, of course)

    • Iolaum42 minutes ago
      As long as they are transparent about what quant they serve the model and any other optimization they do that also affects performance of inferred tokens.
  • extra-AI7 minutes ago
    [flagged]
  • youre-wrong327 minutes ago
    [dead]
  • threerouter2 hours ago
    [dead]