Just a tip: AI generated comments get auto flagged on HN, so if you want to write something in comments for people to reply to, write it yourself.

Comparison to bookies is really comparison to betters.

Bookies don't really care about winners and losers. They just try to balance the money being bet on each side.

Bookies make their money from the "vigorish" --- and a good bookie will win every time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vigorish

20 years back, i've build a tennis prediction system that beat bookies hands down while placing bets on around 30% of all games - and actually made a modest profit (simulated, i never tried because it makes no sense) if i bet on every single game in both ATP and WTA. And then i ran out of drops and profit per drop before account was banned, dropped to ~$100 or so.

These days i heard, no one even tries. Not that it's impossible to make a profit - it's just that automated betting on a fresh line is impossible to conceal anymore and you are banned after 1-2 bets.

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