As mentioned, China's actions to curtail imports is what prevented rapid rises in the global oil market. Hormuz was "crucial" because of unknown information (China demand elasticity) that has been revealed by the natural experiment [1]. India, that last large potential growth story for oil, is rapidly accelerating away from fossil fuels for growth [2] [3] [4]. OPEC is recalibrating forward looking demand and growth expectations [5].

[1] China’s Next Move May Decide Whether Oil Prices Soar - https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/13/business/energy-environme... | https://archive.today/s4odp - July 13th, 2026

[2] Delhi plans to ban petrol rickshaws and scooters in effort to cut toxic fumes - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/30/delhi-gamechan... - June 30th, 2026

[3] India’s transition to electric mobility - https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/from-fossil-to-flex... - July 23rd, 2025

[4] Just 3% of India’s 2032 wind and solar capacity targets can power its EV stock - https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/just-3-of-indias-203... - July 22nd, 2025

[5] OPEC Cuts Demand Forecast Again as the Oil Market Starts Looking Past Hormuz - https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Cuts... - July 13th, 2026 ("In its monthly oil market report released Monday, OPEC lowered expected oil demand growth this year to 780,000 barrels per day, down another 190,000 bpd from last month's forecast. The producer group still expects stronger consumption than many other forecasters, including the International Energy Agency, and even raised its demand growth estimate for 2027 by 210,000 bpd to 1.94 million bpd. The downgrade reflects a market that's becoming less worried about finding oil than finding customers for it.")

(China destroys ~1M barrels/day of global oil demand for every 24 months of EV production, at current production rates, as of this comment)