Treasury Has an Internal Report Warning About the Dangers of an AI Bubble(www.notus.org)

30 pointsby petethomas4 hours ago2 comments

blitzar2 hours ago
The administration is very knowledgeable about all things A1.
- Grombobulous2 hours ago
  Not true at all, I hate misinformation like this. They like their steak well done with ketchup on it. No A1 sauce in sight.
  - treetalker2 hours ago
    Your parent comment may be an example of Poe’s Law.
therobots927an hour ago
No doubt this will be used to justify a government-funded capital lifeline to OAI and Anthropic who are still bleeding cash (irrespective of whether inference is profitable) and may have issues raising more money in the private markets if they are signaling a delayed IPO.
The proposed “donation” of a 5% stake to a sovereign wealth fund creates a direct incentive for government cash infusion.
I really can’t begin to describe how angry this possibility makes me. And I don’t think I’m alone. Keep pushing the envelope Sam / Dario and see what it gets you. Doubling down on a losing bet just digs your hole deeper.
What happens when the government sinks half a trillion dollars into this and we still don’t see an ROI / true agent autonomy? Then what? Ask for another trillion dollars and hope you can stumble on a research breakthrough equally as revolutionary as the transformer?
- ff3334 minutes ago
  What's jarring is nobody is asking the hard question - how much was expended to make the breakthrough of Transformers?
  It certaintly was nothing close to half a trillion.
  Clearly more money is not the path to the solution. Furthermore China is doing pretty well with a fraction of the spend. America may have money but money needs to go toward productive projects - this requires ideas and vision. Which cannot be bought actually.
  - therobots9277 minutes ago
    Well absent a research breakthrough the only option is “scaling” which according to Sam Altman was at a minimum linear, max exponential growth in model ability with number of weights.
    Of course any stats undergrad could tell you this was a fairytale. Increasing number of weights only works until you exhaust the signal in the data. I’m not sure how he was allowed to get away with such a blatant lie but here we are.