There are 4 possible solutions to this problem;
a) convince Americans that it's worth paying more for a locally built product. This is the simplest approach, but there's only so much margin here that the consumer will tolerate. At the moment this gap is too large.
b) Tariff foreign imports to raise their cost. So the US consumer pays more, whether they like it or not.
c) subsidize local production out of the "national interest to support this industry" budget. This has the effect of ramping up demand, hence production, hence production being developed, and eventually getting cheaper.
d) improve US products, and prices, so that they compete in price to the import - or at least fall inside the margins such that a) becomes effective. c) can help bridge the gap here until the US companies have caught up.
In the long run, not all these strategies win. If you go the tariff route, then it's hard to undo it later. Local products fall behind, and the harder it becomes to catch up. Not impossible, but hard.
If Ford wanted tarrifs to help boost EV demand, and so allow Ford to build out infrastructure and lower costs, then fine. But it seems it's more of a short term play to just keep ICE Fords selling in the short term.
This is one of those "the internet is a fad, it'll never catch on" moments. EV's are here to stay. They're going to win. That's pretty obvious to anyone paying attention. If the question is "how to maintain the US car production" then they should be all-in on EV development now. It seems to me though that the current strategy seems to be very short term thinking - trying to just hold back the tide.
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1. Worth noting two key differences between the Mexican and American car buying experience: First, prices are fixed. There’s none of this negotiating with the dealer about the price or upselling you on undercoating stuff. You can look on the website and know what the price is. Second, instead of sales tax, Mexico uses VAT to achieve the same purpose. As a result, the price you see for a product is going to be the actual price you pay walking out the door and not the price before sales tax (at my current residence, the total sales tax is currently 10%). As a consequence, some things that might appear to be slightly more expensive in Mexico, depending on where you live, may actually be slightly cheaper.
Onshoring can be done, but it will have a real cost someone will have to bear. The industry would prefer consumers just pay twice as much for cars, meanwhile consumers are at a breaking point like they've never felt. In the meantime there's a stalemate and nobody can move, as the decline continues.
Realistically it’s the consumers who didn’t want to pay for it
It's only rather recent that all the big name car makes from US/Europe/Japan/Korea are pretty good & reliable. There were huge differences 30-40 years ago.
- Neither did all the attempts at EVs from other competitors in the 2010s, like the GM Bolt/Volt or the Nissan Leaf.
- But you’re not wrong, that today EV companies usually start with SUVs/CUVs, but that’s because a larger chassis makes it easier to include a large enough battery.
Monopoly is the most market-efficient vehicle to deliver returns to capital, and the most natural state of the market; one player using advantages and gains eventually destroys all opponents. Smaller players can never gain a foothold due to the incumbents being so efficient and far ahead, and it makes more sense to merge with the front-runner, allies, or be destroyed (hence the competitor pool keeps shrinking).
These are features of the system that naturally emerge without counterveiling forces.
For example, AI companies will shortly find its cheaper to just get the government to constrain their competition. The alternative is many companies spending trillions to eek out profits, a poor state to be in. Regulators want money and power, so its in their interest to create this protected state, as the "free and open market" isn't buying elections or vacation homes. And of course, any unprotected competitors left behind will die, consolidate, or sell to the victors; so we will eventually have a "winner takes all" system where one or two big players dominate. Any startups will either be quickly destroyed as people ask "why use a worse product", or will sell to the monopoly when they realize they can't afford to spend $1T training models and building data centers, and complying with all the regulations.
My point is that protectionism (in any form) isn't something to bring down over time to encourage competition -- the system can't naturally function that way, as it would require each player to go against their own interests. Instead, protectionism is a natural ever-increasing good that will be cultivated for the controlling capital and regulators in the system. We only see the "free market" operations during a time before market / regulator capture, as that's the time when there aren't yet dominant players who can guarantee power and money to the regulators, and there isn't enough consolidation of capital to immediately destroy all competition, but its an unstable market state.
The US could invest more in battery tech, manufacturing automation, robotics etc. This both lowers cost and increases product competitiveness.
Consider Japan's Kei car initiative, for example.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kei_car#Description
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kei_car#Taxation_and_insurance
One route is to provide incentives, if not regulations, to force innovation on US automakers. The goal would be to yield products that are head-to-head competitive with imports.
> It seems to me though that the current strategy seems to be very short term thinking - trying to just hold back the tide.
I'm seeing that too, but from a different angle. The era of big trucks seems to be as much an effort to extract cash from the economy as it is taking advantage of a peculiar set of EPA and DOT regulations. Basically, "gettin' in while the gettin's good." It's not a long-term strategy because, at some point, people can't afford these behemoths and will go for the used car market next for cheaper goods. EVs may get caught up in that too, considering that they're aimed squarely at the sub-luxury tier and above. As we have no good cheap EV options at the moment, I think it's the same story.
“too-big-to-fail eventually becomes too-big-to keep alive"
A legacy of WW2 was the explosion of the whole defence industry. While a lot of the civilian factories got repurposed in WW2 to build trucks and planes and ships, the tech in all that stuff was very basic. For example the aircraft carrier Yorktown was "fixed" (at least good enough for the Midway battle) in 3 days. I somehow doubt a modern carrier could do that, simply because of the tech required. The US built 150 more carriers in the next 3 years.
The defense industry today gets a trillion $ a year. There's no civilian ship-building to speak of, and military vehicles are now highly specialized.
So why keep Ford et al afloat? Politically it's sold as "national security." In reality it's like more "they didn't die on my watch." And of course, having the ability to make local affects the supply chain. [1]
For example if China invades Taiwan, the US loses pretty much all electronics- especially PCs and Phones. That's a lot of leverage for a foreign country to have.
[1] US cars aren't really local - that's a fiction exposed by the proposed tarif on "car parts", which the industry squashed. In reality car parts are made all over the place (including the US) , and then assembled in the US (or anywhere else.)
Should we get into a big war, we'll likely need mass production of military vehicles and having mass production of consumer vehicles is a good start.
I'd be OK with tariffs if they are not meant to simply keep foreign car companies out of the US, but rather to encourage foreign car companies that want to enter the US market to build factories in the US and build their cars here with US labor.
There would probably still have to be tariffs on parts so they can't just ship all the parts here and just assemble in the US, but if they come here and build cars with US labor and with much of the supply chain being here too and are still causing headaches for the US car makers I don't see why American consumers should care.
I don't know that I think the US manufacturers have taken "inexpensive, but good value" cars seriously for decades. The least expensive Ford vehicle, I think is a Maverick which starts around $28k, Hyundai, Kia, Toyota, Mazda and Honda all have cars under $25000.
The local car industry in the US is doing that to itself by dragging its feet on EVs in the US market even when the very same companies are selling EVs outside of the US. Ford, for example, has an EV Bronco that's inexplicably only available in China; that'd sell like gangbusters here in the US, but Ford won't sell it here because reasons.
In that sense, the Ford CEO is about as dead-wrong as it gets. His company needs to either actually sell competitive products or else move out of the way for other companies to do so. His demands to keep foreign competitors out of the very US market in which his company refuses to offer products are downright insultingly greedy.
https://www.carsdb.com/en/news/1476
I get that's an apples-to-oranges comparison, considering that labor and material costs (not to mention subsidies and regulations) are probably not the same. But even at $40k, it would be cost-competitive with other EVs if nothing else.
I also in particular see Cybertrucks and Rivian R1Ts everywhere here in Reno, so the very specific demand for electric pickup trucks clearly exists.
We already have a trillionaire from subsidizing local production.
Is it national defense synergy / surge capacity reasons? Is it general manufacturing know how / impact on overall domestic manufacturing supply chain? Is it jobs for current workers? Is it to keep the pensions solvent for retirees?
I saw a comment re: this issue in Europe where a Portuguese commenter asked why it was fine for the Eurocrats (lead by Germany) to let all their apparel jobs go overseas, but now he doesn't get the option of buying a Chinese car because German auto jobs need protection. There is something of a point there.
Building EVs would seem to be a logical goal. But is that what the policies are promoting?
That's not clear at all from the long-term habits of American consumers. Why did Ford, GM, and Stellantis all cut EV investment and increase ICE investment in the last year then?
We're seeing a moores-law-like improvement in electric cars and their power densities. If the American car manufacturers don't want to be a part of that progress, it's on them, but Asia and Europe will continue to innovate in that area and the US will be playing catch up because they're servicing what consumers want now, not what they will probably want in the future.
In the short term cutting r&d, killing off "not yet profitable" lines etc all lead to improved results this quarter. Who cares about 5 years, or 10 years from now?
If you look beyond the US then you see EV market share growing year on year. Yes, the US is resisting hard, but you can't hold back the tide forever.
Kodak invented digital photography, but kept going with film. In the end the world moved on, even if they didn't.
50 years from now ICE will be a niche market. And if US producers want to own that niche, well that's great. But it'll be a tiny fraction of what they are now.
EVs are roughly at two thirds market share in the largest car market of the world. The third largest market has them at 20%. Funnily enough, India (4th largest market) is slightly ahead of the US for EV adoption in passenger cars.
ICE cars will be a niche market much more rapidly than 50 years.
Cars are a way to signal status. Americans don't want to buy cheap cars, because cheap cars means low status. They'd rather go into significant debt and keep up with the Joneses. The people buying pickup trucks and SUVs are mostly picking up their kids from elementary school which is half a mile away.
In the US, there's Slate, which claims to be making a small electric pickup truck. "Preorders will start on June 24, 2026. First deliveries are slated for late 2026." [2] Price in the US$20K range, they claim. Claimed range is 150m with the base model battery. A larger battery is available. It's America's answer to the kei car. If it ships and keeps shipping.
Detroit got way too much into the "more car per car" thing. Chevrolet once had the slogan "basic transportation". They lost sight of that market. The giant pickups are just silly.
Yes, it has less utility than many other vehicles in many ways, but the bed length (5 ft) is longer than a lot of trucks I see on the road which enables carrying certain kinds of loads that aren't easy in cars or trucks with very short beds as seems fashionable now.
150 miles isn't a ton of range, but it's 50% more than a first generation Leaf and those sold.
The Slate clearly isn't trying to check all the boxes, but every vehicle doesn't need to try to do everything.
The Slate would be the absolute perfect truck for me if it had a 4WD option. Being RWD-only is the only thing making me unwilling to replace my Tacoma with it.
For cars, this would mean federally-guaranteed loans up to the median value of a plant for any manufacturer with any production base worldwide (the plant to be built or retrofitted in America, of course) plus an N-year (N set to the expected payback period for a new or retrofitted plant) tariff schedule starting very high before decreasing to virtually zero. Maybe also pass a special bankruptcy regime to expedite the redistribution of assets for those who fail to really send the message that failure is an option.
Letting the industry guide policymaking seems like it could lead to regulatory capture preventing EVs from reaching the (low!) price points that they should reach. Already the two-track emissions standards and chicken tax make cars too big and the "arms race" of having a bigger car than everyone else to stay safe (at the expense of others) prevents meaningful reform.
You'll need to pay workers more to make D) work. That cuts into margins. That means it's DOA.
e) End the socialism that is taxpayer-funded bailouts and subsidies for failing car companies, and let the free market decide.
Tired of paying for their losses.
Not saying you're one of them (there are other people here who fit the bill much better) but like with anything else the people on the internet peddling grand narratives lacking of nuance are delusional fanboys, malevolent liars or some combination of the two. EVs are absolutely going to win certain market segments and take good chunks out of others. Unless the government gets out of the business of regulating the crap out of electrical infrastructure at great cost to us all there will likely be a whole bunch of heavier use cases where they just can't pencil out barring some yet unforeseeable breakthrough in the basic physics of batteries.
I think the auto industry is wise to think about the upcoming ~30yr transition period where all that shakes itself out and how to invest the right amount into keeping ICE stuff competitive but without investing to the detriment of winning the EV segment, etc, etc, standard big business stuff.
I’d be surprised if there’s a consequential ICE industry after 2040 (that doesn’t mean there won’t be ICE cars being driven, just that they won’t be selling outside niche industries after 2040).
The collapse of ICE vehicles will happen sooner rather than later due to a few fundamental reasons.
- China has gone all in on EVs. It’s hard to compete against the Chinese and they’re unlikely to ever develop the skills and capabilities to develop cheap ICE vehicles.
- The Strait of Hormuz fiasco has pretty much convinced countries about not being dependent on gas. Electricity is an energy abstraction. It allows you to run your EV no matter where you get your energy from because almost all sources of energy can easily be converted to electricity. Running your vehicles on this abstraction provides a lot of sovereign flexibility.
- ICE infrastructure is incredibly expensive to maintain. You have so many dedicated gas stations spread out all over that use up valuable space and resources, but also then need to be supplied with gas coming from all over the world. As EVs take meaningful share from ICE vehicles, the cost of maintaining this infrastructure for each ICE vehicle driver will keep rising. As demand goes down, gas stations will start shutting down, and then the distance between 2 gas stations or your home and thr closes fast station may increase, and range anxiety will start working against ICE and in favor of EVs.
- ICE vehicles are 100+ years into their development. EVs are just getting started. And they’re almost close to parity. It’s not clear how ICE will maintain any edge outside of very niche use cases as EVs continue to improve.
* General-purpose Semis for commercial hauling. Yes, there's some EV Semis on the road today - pilot projects, or specific routes on specific schedules. But there's a lot of general purpose semi-hauling that happens every day on odd/long routes without sufficient chargers in the right places, and they need much bigger chargers. And then there's the specialty semis that carry large/wide loads. I see them almost every day in my area, carrying large chunks of power substations, heavy manufacturing equipment, blades for wind turbines, etc.
* Fire trucks, Ambulances, Tow trucks, Police cars - For various similar reasons, it's tricky with some of these, although in well-constrained cases and with extra vehicles on tap as backup (when the other one is low on charge in an emergency), maybe can kinda work, eventually.
* "Personal" trucks that see heavy towing/hauling use (think: hauling a livestock trailer or farm equipment or heavy materials (or maybe an EV race car!), possibly long distances on a regular basis). The battery range really suffers when you put all the extra weight and drag on by towing, and people aren't willing to turn what was a 5 hour diesel trip into a 9 hour trip with supercharger stops (more time in the heat with animals, more time on the road in general, and do you have to disconnect the trailer just to reach the charge cable?)
* Backup generator ICE engines - home, datacenter, industrial use, etc. The problem here is mostly runtime and peak watts of output vs cost. You can use a battery-based solution for most of these cases, but it currently costs prohibitively more for the same performance specs. When they're being used in austere environments, sometimes there's no electric grid to even charge from, so slap on a massive solar array cost, too.
* All military use of ICE engines in general (transport, generators, etc) - Not insignificant in scope and scale, and obviously they're not going to run EVs or find chargers on battlefields.
These cases will diminish over time, especially as we continue to make advances in charging and especially battery technology, but it will probably take a few decades because there's science challenges, not just engineering ones. The military case might never go away.
125 years ago cities were built around horses. Stabling. Breeding. Feeding. Grooming. Street cleaning (turns our horses poop a Lot). By 20 years later that's all gone.
Sure horses survived in rural areas. Sure the Amish use them today as then. But the horse-based industry has (in real terms) vanished.
ICE is headed the same way. It will exist, but no daily-driver car will be ICE. EVs win, because in cities they are better. Because they're cheaper to own.
If Ford wants to own the ICE niches, fine. But it won't be cars.
> I’d be surprised if there’s a consequential ICE industry after 2040
It started in the 00s, really took off around 2010.
And don't forget that 2040 is in 14 years. You can buy plenty of brand new ICE cars today, the majority of them will definitely still be around in 14 years.
Do the big Detroit automakers also build a lot of semis, garbage trucks, snow plows, and fire engines? I can see those types of vehicles being ICE holdouts. But certainly not anything you can drive with a regular driver license.
I would gladly vote for a bond to fund electric trash trucks if that resulted in quieter weekly trash service.
https://www.volvotrucks.com/en-en/news-stories/stories/2025/...
I haven't seen a fire truck EV, but those exist in other cities.
Your local DPW with a lot of money for new over spec'd trucks, friendly permitting office approving their permit for charging infra, strict 9-5, etc might make it pencil out for their facility maintenance. But a landscaper who's engaged in fundamentally the same work but out of rented space, a landlord that won't get preferential treatment on the install of charging infra, won't qualify for the same fleet discount, works way harder than 9-5, etc, etc. might not make it pencil out.
Local delivery can potentially make great use of EVs, but if you turn up the operational tempo or the range and have drivers slip seating or really racking up the miles it can be a non-starter vs just buying the same thing in non-ev. And of course the fixed infrastructure cost questions still apply.
You might get hybrids but you also have to remember weight matters in a lot of these applications. Can't be rolling around over weight as part of normal business. And a lot of these applications are trying to stay under 10k while still having as much cargo capacity as possible.
I'm not sure size is the qualifier though. Electric busses are becoming more and more common. I think city vehicles make good candidates for EV - they don't typically go far from home. They are cheaper to build and buy, and much cheaper to run.
The reason I think EVs win is because of the "support system" ICE vehicles need. And as ICE share decreases that support system also starts to dwindle. So those services get more expensive. I'm thinking gas stations, mechanics, parts and so on. It becomes a death spiral.
It's not unlike the switch from mainframes to PCs. At the beginning there wasn't a contest, but now mainframe skills are hard to find and hence very expensive. So the market for them goes down. Indeed most mainframe suppliers (DEC, SUN et al) died off ages ago.
> can travel up to 125 kilometers (77 miles) on a single charge
The US market generally rejects small-range EVs, except in very niche markets. In order to succeed in the US, it will need roughly 3-4x the range. In order for this to succeed in Mexico, their market will need different driving habits than the typical American.
(I know this as a former 2014 Leaf lessee. Short-range EVs only make sense when they are the only option in my price range, and I really, really want to drive an EV. Maybe the typical Mexican rarely drives far away from home? Or maybe this is for a niche of Mexicans who really, really want an EV and will tolerate a short range?)
It's interesting that info about the car is only half the article. The other half is a commentary on how US politicians are desperately trying to keep foreign EVs out of the country, lest it hurt corporate profits.
It's true that some people drive more than 77 miles per day. But a pretty big chunk of people never do, except road trips/vacations. It could easily be worth it to buy a cheap EV for everyday use and then rent a vehicle for long trips.
At the time we were a 2-car household and used the gas car for longer trips. That being said, there were a few times we had to scramble:
Once, when it was very cold my wife and I both needed to drive a long distance. I took the Leaf because I had access to a charger.
On our last year of the lease we ended up having to move 90 miles away. When we bought the Leaf, we never planned on driving that far. Due to circumstances, I had to make multiple 90-mile trips in the Leaf.
---
Case in point: I now only recommend that class of Leaf to people who need a 3rd car for a teenager and no intention of moving.
if the short range EV is now much cheaper, people will adapt to the restriction because it's an affordable option
I'd buy a 6 seater with this range but not with the speed limitations (I think it is like 50-60 kph which is a non starter)
I wish there still were small and very cheap EVs to fill this niche.
We had the Fiat 500e (somewhat infamous) $82 lease as an extra car because for $0 down and $82/month, why not. Range was small but it was perfect for around town, and had other cars for other things. Anytime I was driving within town I'd just take the Fiat.
The cheapest EV currently available in the US is the Chevy Bolt, at $29000, about three times the price. A Bolt has four times the range, but still not quite enough to go one way on my most frequent "long drive".
You can also get used EVs/PHEVs. We got a PHEV with 20 miles of EV range for $14k, and you can get used Leafs for under $10k.
...without a charging stop.
That's pretty much standard operating procedure for any EV. That's one of the perks of owning an EV. Plug it in when you get home from work, and have a full "tank" every morning. Plus you get the cabin preheating using the wall electricity.
And minimum speed on US interstates is typically 40mph, so that reduces its usability even more.
Only 0.8% of the trips are over 100 miles!
> For a significant segment of the US population, that thing wouldn't get them to work and back
0.8% is not significant.
This is a non-starter for the US.
Hey at least you admitted that upfront. Average driving speed in Mexico City is 15 km/h so one would have to spend 8h driving to deplete the battery in a day. Typical commutes are perhaps 1h one-way but again, distance wise probably only about 40 km both ways. So this 125km range easily covers it for most people.
I think energy cost is more of an issue for most. electricity is expensive in Mexico City especially compared to base salaries. And electrical infrastructure was never built to handle high power consumption. Most apartments have a single 30A breaker for the entire house. Most heating is done by gas and air conditioning is not widely used. For most people charging speed will likely be limited to about 10A at 120V.
Charging is not a problem when a car is stationary. It is parked next to a building, building usually has electricity (unless you are Amish).
I don't know why most people don't understand electricity is available everywhere, but petrol is only available at gas stations. You have to somewhere to pump gas, a major inconvenience.
Americans buy the car for the 1% trips. In my case, most of my car trips are short, but most of my milage is from long-range trips.
What's more informative is this post that explains Mexican driving behavior: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48634740
This EV is much more expensive than a motorcycle or a scooter, so on that regard it is DOA.
I don't think range will be an issue at that speed tbh.
Cool little transport but not really a "car" in the way we think of them.
Huh, the speed limit is odd because in my urban/city driving in the western US (San Diego, LA, SF, Portland and Seattle) all major cities still basically necessitate non-zero highway driving. Even mopeds (and bicycles) can pretty easily exceed 31 mph.
I've spent about 2 months total in Mexico City and there are still in-city areas where it'd be common to exceed 31 mph. The main rate limiter being traffic...
Anyway not to pooh-pooh the idea too much, I am sure there are plenty of use cases but maybe enabling a top speed of 55 mph would increase utility IMO
As with everything, finding an official announcement of something in Nicaragua might be horrible, so have this instead https://ni.usembassy.gov/message-for-u-s-citizens-new-speed-...
150k pesos (~$8.6k) for a brand new wheelchair-accessible city van seems like a killer deal in the Mexican market. That would come on the market for less than a used air-cooled VW beetle (ended production in Mexico in 2003)
This would be a big hit in European cities. I own VW e-Up! and it's a perfect EU city car. With it's 375KM range, I rarely charge it more than once a month.
People are so caught up trying to solve every use case at once. Dropping pollution caused by old taxis in city centers will be a big win for Mexico if they can hit their price point. At the price they are quoting fleet operators can buy 2 and have their drivers swap out mid-day during their lunch.
I suspect the current federal government might push back on a Mexican EV just for ideological reasons.
On the website it says it's a car "designed in Mexico for Mexico" https://www.olinia.auto/
Lol, so true. I honestly don't mind waiting for an electric car since I hope to get more mileage out of my current one. If it lasts 10 more years, all the better.
The cars available then should be far better (other than new things I might not want- e.g. more automation).
Then, there's the idea that Mexicans might not be able to manufacture a quality vehicle. My 2001 Toyota Tundra was manufactured in Mexico and I will drive it until I die. Basically a grail vehicle.
Places like Monterrey have multistory quite modern BYD dealerships. You might start shopping for monasteries ;-)
Stopped reading here. For all intents and purposes this is not a real car, it's a golf cart. The title is complete clickbait.
This thing is not a car. It's usefulness in USA would be like shuttling around a mall parking lot or between airport terminals.
Even the $8,500 pricetag seems crazy for something with very little actual utility.
One of the first things I thought when I first saw this thing is, oh, there will be mods.