134 pointsby Refreeze52246 hours ago10 comments
  • mrtomservo6 hours ago
    I wonder if unchecked capital accumulation combined with cutting the social safety net and major public works will lead to commerce without customers: An economy built on consumption where nobody has the money to consume.
    • fzeroracer6 hours ago
      This is what people have been speculating will happen with the rise of the K-shaped economy. An economy where a smaller and smaller number of consumers are responsible for more and more of consumption.

      I think the problem is a sort of self-correcting one though because when the cuts start to bleed deep enough that people can no longer afford food or basic amenities that's when people start to get violent. Unfortunately that also tends to be very bad for economic outcomes.

      • Ferret74466 hours ago
        That premise is kind of false though. Food stamps are very generous, much to the chagrin of the borderline tax contributors.

        I think we'll just see benefits slowly ramp up until most people are on benefits, with lots of consternation around government waste along the way.

        • flowerthoughts2 hours ago
          Generally increasing "money supply" will increase the spending floor, which business will eventually use to increase profits, which we read as inflation. (Sorry, I mean they'll do price discovery to optimize corporate ownership benefits.)

          As long as the economic system can absorb it (and there are plenty of places with >20% inflation rate that survives,) you're right. But if it makes people feel they have "nothing to lose" on going against the rich, GPs scenario will kick in. Ray Dalio (and the Fourth Turning book) suggests this debt cycle is overstretched, and that we should _expect_ an uprising soon that resets it.

        • uberman5 hours ago
          What state are you in that leads you to belive food stamps are very generous? For example West Virginia (not the lowest) maxs out a family of 4 at about $500 a month.
        • fzeroracer6 hours ago
          Food stamps are definitely not 'very generous', speaking from personal historical experience. And food stamps can't pay for health insurance, rent or car bills.
        • zephen6 hours ago
          > Food stamps are very generous

          Certainly not in Texas.

          A single person, who makes $910/month before taxes, rent, transportation, clothes, and insurance, could spend a lot of time and energy on paperwork, and then net $24/month.

          https://www.hhs.texas.gov/sites/default/files/documents/snap...

    • YZF6 hours ago
      There is no economy without customers/consumption. Elon Musk's SPCX are worth zero if nobody wants to send anything to space and nobody can send anything to space if nobody has any money. Debt can fuel consumption to some degree but that has limits. Capital accumulation on its own does not impact the economy. You can put the number $10000000T against Elon's name and it will not change the economy at all. What changes the economy is how this money is deployed. Economies are not zero sum games and money is not a fixed quantity. That's not to say this is meaningless but it also doesn't mean that Elon now has your dollars.
      • sharemywin5 hours ago
        a large % of wealth is a made up number. if everyone runs to the door to sell an asset it becomes close to worthless pretty quickly.
    • bxk766 hours ago
      No commerce going on when the trillion cells inside your body interact. Yet more energy is consumed by the brain.
    • AndrewKemendo6 hours ago
      It’s all moving to a service economy for the wealthy as the only consumers.

      You can see this most dramatically in Las Vegas right now: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LHwU4lQ46nA

      • anon2916 hours ago
        This is because America builds nothing anymore. Consider Disneyland. It's expensive as hell. But also there are more people in America than ever. You'd think they'd have built another one, but they haven't. Why?
  • boznz6 hours ago
    Neither are the politicians, or the influencers, or Hollywood, they all have an end-game, a message or something to sell, none of these people are better than you, yet people pick someone and agrees with everything they say.

    The world has lost the ability to critically think.

    • Rzor5 hours ago
      >The world has lost the ability to critically think.

      Bold of you to assume it ever did.

  • dataflow6 hours ago
    Mostly off-topic, but I've wondered, is there a measure of wealth that involves first liquidating everything? And what is that for Musk? I don't find it meaningful to say someone has a net worth of $X if they can't actually liquidate their assets and pay off their liabilities to produce $X.
    • recursivecaveatan hour ago
      It's usually not that different from just amount * marginal market value, such that its not generally worth worrying about the distinction. The main reasons you can't dump 1 trillion dollars of stock at once is it would be difficult to find enough buyer capital quickly, and announcing your intention to do that is going to drop the price as you're implying an overvaluation.

      Both of those problems can be solved if you just do it slowly in a pre-announced manner. A trillion is a thousand billions, so you could cash out 1 billion dollars annually until the 30th century assuming zero growth/inflation. So unless you're really worried about the optics of selling 0.1% of your holdings, or plan to spend more than 1 billion a year outside your business, you're not really constrained.

      Everything is liquid in a long enough time horizon. It just depends on what you mean by liquidating. Like do I have to sell my house today? In a week? Months? More flexibility = more value.

      For Musk the situation is definitely more extreme though. Since a significant part of that valuation is attached to him owning it, he would definitely take an abnormal level of haircut. Probably an unknowable investor sentiment question though.

    • YZF6 hours ago
      Presumably Elon can borrow a lot of money against his paper money. That would be more typical than trying to liquidate. But yes, there is no way he can actually fully cash out on his net wealth, and he probably wouldn't even know what to do with it if he could.
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  • ggm6 hours ago
    I enjoyed seeing this refer to the Phaistos disc, because I have just come back from Heraklion and saw it in the flesh (clay)

    A reminder that deciphering Linear B was the work of a number of people and a brilliant book by John Chadwick discusses the statistics, and the application of numerical/statistical methods to the analysis That Chadwick and Ventris used, from the ground breaking work of Alice Klober.

    The problem with Linear A and the Phaistos disc, is that there isn't enough material to apply these kinds of methods. I believe most Linear A is tally records.

  • YZF6 hours ago
    What matters isn't Elon Musk (or any other person's) net worth. What matters is how this money is being deployed. If Elon has $1T in his basement and he's not doing things with this money then the net outcome is the removal of this money from the economy which is deflationary - makes your money go farther. If Elon invests it in things that produce broader value (e.g. create jobs, improve productivity, etc.) then it can be a net positive. It's not about the amount- it's about how it is deployed. One rich person (or country e.g.) can be your "oppressor" (more likely in non-democratic countries) and another could be your benefactor.

    Making money is the incentive we have in capitalism for individuals to create value. Capitalism isn't perfect but it's the best system we know of. In systems where we don't allow people to become rich (in theory) we typically produce less value and end up with most of the value concentrated into one dictator (e.g. Russia, China, Saudi Arabia). We can argue about taxation etc. but fundamentally this is the system that has proved to be the best for everyone. We can argue about checks and balances as well but again in practice having rich people and western democracy correlates with better outcomes for everyone historically. If you propose we get rid of this system you need to make a reasonable argument for an alternative that is better. If you're arguing that life isn't always fair and luck plays a role- well yeah.

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  • fzeroracer6 hours ago
    I wonder what it would take to shake America of the whole 'temporarily embarrassed millionaire' problem.

    At this point I assume even a hard economic crash pioneered and gleefully supported by the rich isn't enough of a cold water splash. I think that mentality is too locked in for a large subset of Americans. Musk has been increasingly getting more and more rancid and that doesn't seem to deter his supporters at all.

    • happytoexplain6 hours ago
      Nothing short of mass violence, which should not and will not happen. I.e. we're absolutely fucked in the foreseeable future. Maybe in a century something massive enough will happen, god help those living at the time.
    • derektank6 hours ago
      One doesn’t have to imagine themselves a future millionaire to be wary of granting the state the ability to confiscate private property. There’s a very real risk that they’ll come for the modern equivalent of the kulaks next.
      • fzeroracer5 hours ago
        This would be fair...except said wary individuals have had zero problem giving the state the ability to confiscate private property as long as it appeals directly to their emotions. We've seen cheers from those same types as the government sends jack-booted thugs to kick in doors and destroy property.
    • Empact6 hours ago
      Leftists ask “why don’t Americans hate capitalism,” while Americans live in one of the most prosperous and advanced societies in the world.
      • text04045 hours ago
        Unfortunately, leftists rely on Americans ability to empathize with the plight of the vassal states in the world which have been pillaged and destroyed in service of the most prosperous and advanced societies. It is obvious at this point that Americans do not have empathy and will gladly accept the state of the world as long as they don't have to witness the injustice of it.
      • juanani6 hours ago
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  • sillysaurusx6 hours ago
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  • thegrim336 hours ago
    [flagged]
    • wyrdcurt6 hours ago
      Partisan? I saw no mention of any political party.

      Hate-filled? Are you sure you don't just disagree?

      Not arguing that it deserves to be on top or anything, but I thought HN encourages substantive commentary over complaints about the algorithm.

      Personally I think it's obscene for any individual to be a trillionaire, and in my experience, that's not necessarily partisan; there are many people across the political spectrum(s) who would agree.

      • filup5 hours ago
        Was that guy a billionaire? Sounds like a billionaire comment.
      • frasermarlow6 hours ago
        I agree that a system in which we reward one man for building a vast loss-making empire is fundamentally broken and will eventually need to correct course. Elon Musk is not the problem, the irrational valuations of his (and his team's) work are. This said, the article is not terribly articulate in it's arguments and clings to an anachronistic view of how capital markets currently allocate wealth (and I am deliberately avoiding saying "how capital markets work" because I can't see this model working too long past this current wave of massive hyped up IPOs). Also, just to throw spice into the conversation, I bought into the IPO and cashed out above $160. So thanks for that.
    • happytoexplain6 hours ago
      Sometimes it's hard to distinguish "hate-filled" from "spot-lighting the immorality of people or systems from which I benefit or with which I ideologically concur".
    • NDlurker6 hours ago
      If you think it's a "partisan, hate-filled/inducing rant" maybe you should rtfa, because it's not.
    • sillysaurusx6 hours ago
      It’s been 28 minutes since it was submitted. Chill. The algorithm needs time to work. It’s a feature, not a flaw, that posts can skyrocket to the top of the front page. It’s why HN has fresher news.
    • Loocid6 hours ago
      Recency matters. If this post stops getting points it will drop off very fast. The 273 point post is 9 hours old.
    • himata41136 hours ago
      It will get flagged and die, read the guidelines or contact hn directly if you have issues with this. There's no comments for the reasons you've described.
    • coffepot776 hours ago
      Wealth inequality is not a partisan issue. And how Silicon Valley should morally use it’s wealth and technical power seems highly relevant to this crowd where CEO worship is common. But looks like you got this flagged
    • shaewest6 hours ago
      I mean, 30 points in 30 minutes at the time of writing, seems like reason enough to be high up on the front-page, even if it's botted that's little time for admins to review
    • singpolyma36 hours ago
      Did you read TFA? It is neither hate filled nor a rant.
    • zephen6 hours ago
      > A completely partisan, hate-filled/inducing rant

      Those of us who live in reality might or might not find it a bit over the top, but fully understand that if a relatively accurate description of reality, hyperbolic or not, appears to induce hate, then it is, in fact, reality itself that induces the hate.

      Your take on this is not at all surprising, given your risible description of the modern conservative:

      https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48508905

    • waterTanuki6 hours ago
      > A completely partisan, hate-filled/inducing rant, posted by an account which effectively makes this type of thing 50% of the type of content they submit. Yet the algorithm has it at the very top of HN.

      You realize you're making a political statement in and of itself? There's no such thing as enlightened centrism.

    • bugjoey6 hours ago
      Yep, this is tiresome. Antirez (Redis author) was going to write an alternative to HN, I'm looking forward to that. To this point, I think that a simple Bayesian span detector could help a lot.
    • AndrewKemendo6 hours ago
      I upvoted it and I don’t usually vote up stories but this is exactly what we need to see.

      As reference my article that said more or less the same as this article, was #1 on the front page for almost a whole day in 2024: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39569747

      I’m excited to see the sea change in political sentiment and how people are talking, so I’m 100% here for it.

      • ynac6 hours ago
        Have to say, the headline alone had me reaching for the pointy hat. Wonder if it was the statistical anomalie or the content that got the parent comment to post?
        • AndrewKemendo6 hours ago
          I think people are starting to actually realize that they have been scammed and what Zinn, Chomsky, Bookchin, Sagan et al have been shouting about was always right
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      • boznz6 hours ago
        This is a technical site (or was at one point in time), I for one would be happy with zero of this shit.
        • AndrewKemendo6 hours ago
          You can’t separate the two, technology accumulates productivity, but the more important point is how the productivity is distributed
        • fzeroracer6 hours ago
          This technical site for years had a large contingent of users fellating every action Musk did (just look at the cyber truck thread here all those years ago). Now criticism of Musk and his immense amounts of often ill-gotten wealth is tantamount to partisanship.
    • _alternator_6 hours ago
      Likely due to fairly low traffic this time of day, so easy to get momentum. Also, maybe marxists hang out in HN on Sunday night?

      But yeah a quick skim shows it's not really worth reading. If you want Marxism, read Marx. It's odd to me that the "excess value theory of labor" still has so many adherents, but at least get it from the source.