SpaceX posted $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue. A typical premium valuation for a top-tier tech company with excellent growth potential might be around 10x to 14x revenue, which would imply a strong IPO valuation of roughly $187 billion to $262 billion. Against that benchmark, a trillion-dollar-plus valuation is astonishing. At that level, investors would be paying far beyond normal tech-company multiples. I suspect many people buying into the IPO could end up losing money.

SpaceX lost $4.3 billion in the first three months of the year alone. Revenue was $4.7 billion and growing, but it was far lower than that of tech giants like Meta, which brought in $56.3 billion in the same period and has a stock market valuation of $1.4 trillion.

If this was only impacting folks who choose to invest in SpaceX that would be one thing. But they are forcing SpaceX down the throats of anyone who has a 401(k) and down the throats of anyone who has index funds such as QQQ, and Nasdaq suspended their normal rules for including SpaceX.

Goldman Sachs--they are leading the IPO process--told a potential investor that it expected SpaceX’s total revenue to reach $474 billion in 2030, up from $18.7 billion last year. So 25x in just 4 years. Morgan Stanley, which is also working on the IPO, said in an analysis shared with investors that it anticipated SpaceX’s revenue would hit $3.4 trillion by 2040.

I hope Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are sued out of existence for perpetuating this fraud.