Ask HN: Is anyone shorting the overspend in AI yet?
6 pointsby ggm2 hours ago3 comments
  • freakynit2 hours ago
    Did this research last week on the same thing:

    NVIDIA (NVDA) — The Short / Underperformance Thesis - https://nvidia-stock-analysis.pagey.site/

    This is pump and dump on the largest scale we have ever seen. It's effectively privatize the profits and socialize the losses.

  • rowbinan hour ago
    Many have theorized this. But i wouldn't bet money on it, the timing is just too unpredictable IMO.
  • bigyabai2 hours ago
    Who replaces Nvidia? That's the 5 trillion dollar question, and nobody has stepped forward to answer it.

    The closest the industry came to replacing CUDA was with Khronos and OpenCL, but that ship has sailed. CDNA, Apple Silicon, Intel Inside, none of them are trying to take Nvidia's crown. The niche for HPC will exist, and Nvidia continues to serve the niche while others turn up their nose.

    For my money, shorting Nvidia is like betting on Glass Joe to beat Mike Tyson. There's going to be incredible cloud spend on unglamorous stuff like defense and automated computer vision, and that will keep Nvidia's demand afloat even at a wild valuation.

    • ggman hour ago
      That's a substantive point, the GPUs are reprogrammable to do other tasks so the people who pay for massive CFD computation in Mil and Oil will have competitive offers, but I'm unsure the spectacular future value is there, if the perpetual "buy more" dries up. They could wind up alive, but with a smaller horizon.

      I know I harbour resentment because of the knock on effects on ram and SSD pricing, but I'm serious that I think the amount of capital being sunk in hyperscalers does not look to me to be recoverable inside the investors ROI. If my example is poorly chosen, perhaps the people currently buying the kit are the ones destined to have a fall.