Anyways, so excited for an open-weight model and I hope it performs well. I’ll be testing this ASAP.
I've had pretty good success with LLMs after putting in place metrics to measure true complexity (not cyclomatic), and automatically pushing back everything until the added complexity is within reason for the feature.
Today, even the dumbest AI agents can trivially loop through the final dance to get compilation, and often unit tests (depending on scope of failure). Big SOTA agents have OK code quality, but if left unattended or unchecked will still generate pretty sloppy repos after a while. That’s true even when using models like Opus which is ridiculously expensive in comparison.
When using the models in this fast “pair programming” style, I find that I (the human) mostly do all the “plan and think” work, and usually point the smaller agent towards specific files/directories, with specific targeted changes. It’s slower than 1-shot prompting an entire feature, but slightly faster than doing it manually, and I find the code is less “slop” because the changes are smaller and more human. It retains the agentic benefits of handing imports, compilation iteration, etc and can do basic cross-file plumbing. It’s also cheap and fast to do iterations like “wait make that method static” or “let’s update this to use <other util class>” and things like that. When the agent is slow to make localized edits, I find I’m less likely to push for minor nit-picks and style updates.
An LLM's decoder computes tokens one-at-a-time because attention has to account for each previous token. The existing LLM decoders scale well when you have enough load to batch many inferences together. Diffusion of limited benefit there. On edge you have a different problem: your inference accelerator is starved while sloshing GB of weights back and forth from RAM. That's because the consumer RAM like LPDDRx/GDDRx is lower bandwidth than HBM, and the requests are serial so you can't batch compute common weights. Diffusion can compute tokens in parallel which relieves the memory bandwidth bottle neck.
(I got it to draw a pelican: https://tools.simonwillison.net/markdown-svg-renderer#url=ht... )
"DiffusionGemma's speedup is designed for local and low-concurrency inference. In high-QPS cloud serving, autoregressive models can be deployed to saturate compute efficiently, so DiffusionGemma's parallel decoding offers diminishing returns and can result in higher serving costs"
So the diffusion process takes more GFLOPs, if you have enough users you can already balance memory and compute.
> Operating as a 26B total Mixture of Experts (MoE) model that activates only 3.8B parameters during inference, DiffusionGemma fits comfortably within 18GB VRAM limits of high-end dedicated consumer GPUs when quantized.
Okay, so Gemma 4 26B is a MoE model that's really fast on my 24 GB GPU using ollama. This sounds like speculative decoding but I don't think that works with MoE models? It's hard to keep up with all this when it's not your job to keep up with it.
The mechanism isn't the same as speculative decoding. Speculative decoding happens sequentially and (usually) a couple of tokens at a time; diffusion doesn't, and does blocks of text at once. I haven't read the collateral yet but my assumption would be that it's trained to keep the specific experts stable across a diffusion block.
The thing is, diffusion models perform somewhat worse than autoregressive on text. So you lose some performance.
Speed is the big advantage. Autoregressive when doing local inference is mostly memory bound; you're doing one token at a time, for each token you need to load all weights. MTP helps a bit by allowing you to draft tokens in a smaller model and then verify them in parallel with the larger model, allowing you to do a few computations for every memory load, but because you're still doing tokens sequentially and need to discard invalid drafted tokens, you can only get so much speedup.
For hosted models, however, you can batch many token generations together, fully utilizing all of the compute while no longer being bottlenecked on memory bandwidth. So they are already operating at close to max efficiency.
So, diffusion kind of loses its beneifit in hosted models. Sure, maybe you could pay more to have slightly lower latency responses by doing diffusion for one user at a time instead of autoregressive for many in parallel. But given that it also reduces accuracy, it's hard to see where you'd really want that. Unless they're able to bring it up to par with autoregressive, it seems like it's a bit of a dead out outside of local models where you're generally just doing one thing at a time.
My immediate thought - this performs slightly worse than the autoregressive gemma equivalent, but it may also let me functionally run better models in diffusion variants.
Ex - I can run 70b-120b autoregressive models locally right now, but I get ~5-15t/s, which just isn't fast enough for serious work.
Which caps me down in the 20-36b models (ex - gemma4) where I can get 100+t/s on the same hardware.
So the question becomes - does the quality drop from a diffusion model outweigh the quality bump from using a larger model?
Because if not... sounds like diffusion models have a lot of space to thrive.
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Sadly - if they can't be hosted profitably, I question whether this space will actually be explored.
Does not need opus level to write, and easy to iterate on.
The video demo of the svg sword is an interesting example of what is so interesting about diffusion models: it's not just putting one token after another to make edits to a file. It's skipping around, it's re-editing previous lines. I feel like forcing it to write too calls is maybe not its best nature.
I feel like perhaps instead of a monolithic edit file tool call, perhaps the diffusion model would be better suited to posting a change stream, a series of edit ops, across multiple files.
The bidirectionality could be a big deal: being able to refine a sentence with both left and right context feels closer to how editing/thinking actually works than committing to each token forever.
Maybe the current models aren’t good enough yet, but the direction feels important.
Then you will be able to achieve Jevons Paradox and enjoy the same “productivity gains” without paying for these extortionate token prices by closed model providers or have it as cheap as possible.
And especially, no silent nerfing of the model.
Next year, and the year after, Fable, GPT 5.5 and Gemini 3.5 will feel quite ordinary. And perhaps even within reach of a prosumer running models locally.