If my experience running a small company, and not needing to hire junior talent as urgently as in the pre-AI days, is any indication, this transition is going to take a while. I can't justify hiring someone that isn't already ready to use AI tools to get familiar with the codebase, work out designs on their own, etc. In an alternate universe, I would have just hired someone at a lower level of maturity and let them learn the ropes, or fired them. Now I would rather get someone who already knows what questions to ask of LLMs, how to sequence the work, etc.

Ofc, eventually we'll all run out of that limited supply of experienced engineers, and will have to hope there's a cohort that's been training on these new skills, and is ready for employment. Meanwhile it'll be hell for everyone stuck in the middle of these experience levels.