People who work in mainstream financial markets (e.g. stocks) believe pretty much the same thing: the vast majority of people are uninformed and contribute Brownian motion whereas just a few people know something and they move markets.

https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/24487.html

https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.03658

Notably market makers can make money off the noise injected by uninformed traders but would not trade with informed traders if they could help it. (Look how “sharps” are kicked out of online sport books.)

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