The investment case for the AI labs is to point at recent hockey stick revenue growth and say "this, til 2030".

So to hit that you would assume you'd need - a wider base of use cases outside SWE, a wider user base in each use case, and higher usage per user.

Meanwhile, we have had a drumbeat of headlines of tech & non-tech companies putting in spending monitoring, caps, model downgrades, etc since the end of Q1... mostly on the primary good agreed use case - SWE assistance.

And this ignores the AI labs costs to provide the models entirely, this is purely whether revenue can keep going to the moon or not.

Its interesting that we've already gotten to the point sama is acknowledging the issue.

Hold on to your wallet, you ain't seen nothing yet.

Bain and Co. says that AI needs $2 trillion in *annual* revenue by 2030 to justify what has already been spent on development.

For comparison purposes, this is more than the combined revenue of Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Nvidia, and more than five times the current size of the entire global subscription software market.

https://www.bain.com/about/media-center/press-releases/20252...

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