Oh how much I wish Mr Owen would be sent to the front lines to see for himself how irrelevant he can make 3000$ drones.
The reason why drones are _so_ devastating in ukraine is that there is no air superiority.
that standard "modern" way is bomb the living shit out of anything armoured, and then push forward with your own armour. Hence why ukraine needed so many javelins to stop armour and helicopters.
Its also why despite the sheer amount of stuff that Iran et al threw at Isreal, it hardly got through. unlike Oman or UAE. (However thats not actually apples to apples.)
What isn't said is guerilla warefare with drones is devastating.
... Isn't 1 out of 16 higher than 1 out of 25? (May be still lower in absolute numbers due to the population size difference, but the original text is unclear)
------------------
Putin was advised that Russian disinfo had worked and Ukrainians would welcome Russian troops as liberators while Zelensky's government would fold immediately. His generals feared to offer a less rosy assessment because doing so would have been immediately fatal. Trump was advised that invading Iran was a very bad idea[1]. Putin's brutality led to him being misinformed, but Trump ignored good information and made a bad decision.
New technology didn't cause either of these bad decisions. It was old-fashioned arrogance, thuggishness, and stupidity.
As for drone warfare... A real X factor is going to be production capacity.
Ukraine has managed to capture manned Russian positions with only drones. Drone tech evolves so quickly that one side's technological edge can be blunted or even reversed in just a few weeks or months. Stockpiles are not to be relied upon. Being able to out-evolve the enemy is critical, but being able to turn lessons learned into new hardware immediately will likely be a deciding factor in future conflicts.
The chimp troupe is full of itself. Its intelligence and "innovations" are highly overated. Covid brought the whole world to its knees. No intelligence or drones required.
As Lynn Margulis famously said - we are not the main show.
And where does your inside info from the Kremlin and Putin's head is coming from?
Putin was raised in the KGB, I think he knows a bit how to get intel. And with secret war style he was very successful in 2014 seizing the Krim and some areas.
It was likely just overconfidence in the ability of the russian army in a conventional war and underestimating the will of the ukrainians to hold their ground in the beginning of the war.
If that battle in the beginning would have turned out different, Kiew would likely have fallen and then the war would have been largely over in a few days
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Antonov_Airport
Not many believed, myself included, that Ukraine was strong enough to hold of the russian army - but they did. And now both sides use Drones heavily.
having nukes and a lot of empty land does not make russia "great power", and their war results match this.
Part of a long trend: Israeli Operatives Who Aided Harvey Weinstein Collected Information on Former Obama Administration Officials to undermine the Iran Nuclear Deal - https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/israeli-operatives-...
To help make the case on Iran, Graham traveled several times to Israel in recent weeks, meeting with members of the country’s intelligence agency. “They’ll tell me things our own government won’t tell me,” he said. He spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, coaching him on how to lobby the president for action. - https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/lindsey-graham-trump-ira... (https://archive.is/G1Dt0)
Netanyahu started this war by attacking Iran. He assassinated Ali Shamkhani, Iran’s lead nuclear negotiator, deliberately sabotaging US-Iran nuclear negotiations. - https://x.com/BernieSanders/status/1934659864610918435 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Shamkhani#Assassination_at...)
When Israel attacked Iran in 2025, Iran was very, very clear that they did not consider it an attack from the US and did not retaliate against US assets. The US choose to support israel with intel and weapons, and Iran still didn't strike at US interests. Then the US joined forces with israel to push for bigger concessions from Iran just before the ceasefire (that the US broke 8 month later, once again during peace talks).
So do not act as if Israel pushed the US into this war. This was a political and strategical choice the US made, and you should own it. People who were silent on the 2025 bombardment and are now saying "we shouldn't fight Israel war" are to me hypocrites.
It is wild how many conflicts involve this blunder. I can’t think of a single major example where the advisors were right. It’s such a great example of believing your own propaganda and/or being too afraid to actually look under the hood of your claims to your leader.
Autocracy tends to breed lying yes men near the top I suppose.
Your claims about Putin are just as good as mine.
The current situation is not a consequence of modern warfare. It’s a consequence of the many layers of hubris, stupidity and arrogance uttered by incompetent people who put up a show for a shrinking audience.
The stupidity of the leadership in the USA is perfectly broadcasted in full view, for everyone to see, during Trump cabinet meetings, where he is undeservedly praised by weaker men and women. It shows all the weaknesses of the USA in just 5 minutes of watching that cringefest. You don’t even need spies.
A plan with quite long odds you could rightly say, but not as stupid as subduing them by invading them I suppose.
And per analysis I heard in French media from Iranian opposition understood the war as a war of destruction, not as a war of liberation. As they continued to be executed daily by the regime.
Meanwhile one of multiple explicit day 1 plans was a plan to negotiate with successor within the regime - recreate the Venezuela situation where you keep the regime, keep its tortures, but put head more willing to give up oil on its head.
"At 2:30 a.m. EST on 28 February, Donald Trump released an eight-minute video statement on Truth Social, saying that the purpose of the US strikes in Iran was effectively[vague] regime change."
As for the Iraq war, Israel was supportive, but it would be incorrect to say the war was at their behest.
Well also, about Pahlavi being deposed by his own people, who really knows.
And they begotiated while USA bombed them twice during negotiations.
This situation was created by USA and comment rightfully focuses on people who created it.
> brown people cant be actors only acted upon
Did you read some different comment? Cause nothing in that comment implies this. But in fact, this chaim of events was initiated and orchestrated entirely by American leadership.
You dont get to tear down nuclear agreement that was followed, then bomb twice during negotiations and then pretend the whole thing is about nuclear concern other side caused. And you dont get then try to shift the topic from nuclear to proxy war between everyone and everyone in that region. And if you are looking for the "good vs bad" division in this war, all I see is bunch of dictatorships, countries directly or indirectly engaged in current genocides and invasions. And country that caused this particular war and is in the process to become like that too.
I am also aware and American actions in Greenland, murders in pacific and Venezuela. I am also aware of masculine insecurity and its relation to "starting wars to make us feel cool and powerful" factor of the situation.
If we're working on a scale of 1-10 for "how close is a ruling government to Nazi Germany", Iran is maybe a 7 or 8.
The US, despite Trump's best efforts, is still only at a relatively benign 3 or 4.