I agree with the central point that coding agents are sticky. We're unlikely to go back to a word where humans are writing the vast majority of code themselves. When I think about whether AI is over-hyped, I return to the fact that even if AI progress stalled tomorrow, the abilities of today's AI still haven't saturated our world.

I'm more skeptical that IDEs will be dominant a few years from now. It's certainly possible. But I also find it plausible that AI continues to do more and more software development work, and humans less and less.

> the tokens are already starting to come less cheap

It may be true that frontier models have become more expensive at times (there are counter-examples though). But the stronger trend is the cost of running a model with fixed capabilities falling over time. That can't continue forever, of course. But I don't expect the fundamental costs to rise. Are you expecting providers to significantly increase their margins?