121 pointsby doppp5 hours ago18 comments
  • amusingimpala753 hours ago
    How does a company even consider this while the CFO is privately saying the books / revenue accounting are not ready for public scrutiny?

    Edit: Or has so much somehow changed in two weeks that it’s no longer necessary to wait until next year?

    • lumost3 hours ago
      These companies are burning enough cash that they will need to be public.

      We’re about to have 3 of the worlds’s largest corporations be massively in the red.

      • overfeed14 minutes ago
        Don't worry - they'll make it up with volume!
    • hattmall2 hours ago
      I believe, but could be wrong, is that the big change is the time frame for index and managed funds buy in. It used to be a year, but it's much shorter now, like 2 weeks. Which means as long as they can maintain a high market cap relative to their exchange for that time period they will be stabilized by institutional funds and basically crowd sourcing any losses to the public and massively cashing out the internal pre-ipo investors.

      At least that's my understanding of the current market dynamics regarding IPOS, if I'm wrong that would be great, and if someone else would explain it even better.

    • wg02 hours ago
      Current administration might rig the rules to take the credit of AI boom.

      Even third world doesn't have this much shameless and corrupt regime as much as this one is.

    • eldenring2 hours ago
      I'm guessing they had a significant revenue spike from gpt 5.4 and gpt 5.5 being so good at coding, and hiccups at anthropic making it easier for programmers to try the models.
    • mrtksnan hour ago
      Can't they just tell GPT-5.5 to fix their books, make no mistakes? Are the accountants also not replaceable by AI when doctors, lawyers and engineers are?
      • CTDOCodebasesan hour ago
        Maybe they need those accountants to buy stock first before they put them all out of work?
    • bayarearefugee3 hours ago
      > How does a company even consider this while the CFO is privately saying the books / revenue accounting are not ready for public scrutiny?

      Perhaps they will just tell a lot of lies.

      In the past people would generally avoid this when it came to stock market filings for fear of legal consequences, but the OpenAI C-Suite is already at least +$26 million to Trump and has plenty more to send his way if that doesn't cover it.

      Crime is legal in 2026 (if you can afford the kickback fees).

    • SpicyLemonZest2 hours ago
      The CFO doesn't even report to Sam Altman directly. I would not assume that the decision is up to her in any meaningful way. I predicted a while ago and still stand by an 80% chance that their S1 is disastrous on the scale of WeWork; so, so much of what people think they know about OpenAI's finances is based on snippets and rumors rather than firm audited statements.
      • ifwinterco30 minutes ago
        They’ll be using every trick in the book to massage the numbers as much as possible, but even so it’s hard to see how an S1 for OpenAI or Anthropic doesn’t look pretty terrible
  • sandeepkd3 hours ago
    Looks like there is only limited money in the market and there is a race to get it first. Wonder if the free market concept should move the prices down in such a scenario?
    • nradov2 hours ago
      Don't worry, the Fed can create infinite money!
      • miohtama2 hours ago
        It's good that there is now a new head of Fed for this.
  • HDBaseT2 hours ago
    I can't wait to invest an OpenAI and lose all my retirement fund.
    • wg02 hours ago
      Anthropic is also a suitable choice.
  • henry20233 hours ago
    Soon to be part of your portfolio if you hold Nasdaq 100 or S&P 500 trackers line QQQ or SPY.
    • eclipsetheworld14 minutes ago
      Collectively, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia already own approximately 25 - 35% of OpenAI and Anthropic respectively. They already are a part of your portfolio.
      • bob10296 minutes ago
        This kind of indirect exposure might look good on paper but it's never even remotely a linear mapping in practice. Holding the underlying directly is the best bet if you want to minimize the possibility of getting screwed over by external factors while maximizing your practical exposure. It really sucks to be right and still get punished for it because Xbox or windows shit the bed last quarter.
    • sixhobbits15 minutes ago
      Afaik, Nasdaq removed the seasoning rules to include it from the start, S&P would usually be only a year after IPO but they are also discussing changes
    • juleiie4 minutes ago
      So these extremely risky companies will become a big part of American retirement funds.

      I am sure nothing bad will happen

    • seydor2 hours ago
      What will managed funds do?

      Are we now suggesting people get out of index funds?

      Worse, will this and spacex ipo destroy the index funds?

      • karmakurtisaanian hour ago
        Destroy is a strong word. Rather, it will make the pension funds and passive investors the bag holders for the oligarchs.
    • derwiki2 hours ago
      Upside of robo advisors?
    • coliveira2 hours ago
      ETFs are a trap. Put most of your money in single stocks. It is ok to diversify, you don't need an ETF for this.
      • pixelatedindexan hour ago
        > It is ok to diversify

        Nay, it is not just “ok”. It is imperative that you diversify if you want a strong and resilient portfolio.

      • sentientslug2 hours ago
        This is terrible advice, are you buying and self balancing hundreds of different stocks?
        • conceptionan hour ago
          I can’t say I’ve tried this but the thought just came to me that generating such trades would be trivial to do monthly now.
        • NewJazzan hour ago
          Direct indexing is a thing.
          • ifwinterco27 minutes ago
            It’s a thing but your order execution won’t be as efficient as an ETF, so you will be losing a non-negligible amount each year in slippage from the large number of small transactions
  • avaer3 hours ago
    A race to lock in the money next to SpaceX (which just filed an S-1)? This can't go well.
    • cm21875 minutes ago
      I am starting to speculate that was the purpose of the openai lawsuit. Delay IPO.
    • chinathrowan hour ago
      Maybe Sams reaction to Elons ego?
  • techtuate2 hours ago
    I was wrong - not investing in FB and Amazon many years ago - thought those businesses will shrivel and die. I believe OpenAI is a bit of a coin flip as the AI space evolves. In fact I feel all AI will be marginal return generators at best. There are a lot of incumbents and a lot more coming as barriers to entry get increasingly lower. Unless a company can build a near monopoly it'll be hard to justify a 100X revenue valuation despite heavy losses. I feel it's safer to take a punt on alternate compute companies (Musk leads but others exist) than take a bet on one of many AI companies to build a monopoly.
    • psb5an hour ago
      All that is a side show. What would you have done with the cash if you were right? Thats always the real story.

      My Aunt runs an accounting firm and is constantly moaning about the number of people who have over accumulated cash from IPOs and have no clue what to do with it all.

    • Cyclone_2 hours ago
      Anthropic actually turned an operating profit recently due to huge revenue growth.
      • hauntingseaweedan hour ago
        Do you have a source for that claim?
        • dminikan hour ago
          Hmm, it looks like if their revenue doubles to ~$10B and their expenses don't, they stand to gain a very sweet ~$500M.

          https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropic-nears-first-quart...

          That being said, it does look like it's being partially subsidized by Elon burning lots of money. We'll see if he can keep it up or if it will be left behind as hardware evolves.

          • 48terry11 minutes ago
            > its June quarter sales could reach at least $10.9 billion

            It COULD reach $10.9 billion. It COULD also completely shit itself and go bust. We'll just all have a fun time finding out together, won't we, investors?

  • noobermin2 hours ago
    Trying to get your money out while there's still time! Quickly now!
  • bandrami2 hours ago
    Cool does this mean they'll disclose their revenues and expenses in line with GAAP?
  • vascoan hour ago
    I'd be willing to make this a ban-bet, but my prediction is that either OpenAI or SpaceX's IPO will flop and that will be the signal that will start the new stock market crash. When it happens people will point at how obvious it was with the war and the bubble going for a while. But these 2 mega IPOs back to back will be interesting to follow.
  • cftan hour ago
    Expect ⅕ codex quotas after
  • trilogican hour ago
    >Anthropic is currently in talks with investors to raise money at a $900 billion valuation, which would push it ahead of OpenAI.

    How you go from 380 to 900 billions in a month, I am very curious? So now Anthropic is evaluated 900 billions! Journalism this days is worse than my kids social media channel. Totally, I believe you, go for it, is just one more zero bro. Everyone Brace for Impact.

    Let´s do it also, Breaking News: HUGSTON in talks with investors now Evaluated at 1 Billion Euro.

    • apexalpha29 minutes ago
      > How you go from 380 to 900 billions in a month, I am very curious?

      Mythos Marketing.

      • trilogic9 minutes ago
        Well having "Mythos" at our offices (maybe not so good but 90%) would it be worth 1 Billion, Just saying!
  • shartsan hour ago
    Now everyone is on the hook for this overpriced unprofitable monstrosity vis a vis pension and index funds. How much longer for the coming economic collapse…
    • karmakurtisaanian hour ago
      It should still take a year until it's added to the indices, no? At least that's how I understood the SpaceX case: Elon wanted to rush it and get it done in 6 months.

      So there's still hope that the bubble pops before the funds are poisoned.

      • chillfox7 minutes ago
        lol, they reduced the wait time drastically last year I think it's a few weeks now.
      • grey-area40 minutes ago
        Indexes forcing investing will prop the bubble up. It will burst when nobody expects it after a massive IPO pop which makes believers even of the skeptical.
  • avazhi25 minutes ago
    I have no personal skin in the game in terms of investment posture, but OpenAI is, by an increasing margin, the weakest player. Claude and Gemini are both blatantly better (better as in smarter/more capable across all measures). Claude seems like the ‘smartest’ model and while Gemini is way more annoying to interact with in terms of its sycophantic nonsense and brain rot writing style, Google also has unlimited compute and I’ve literally never run out of tokens using any of Gemini’s models. And meanwhile Anthropic is seemingly addressing its biggest weakness, which is limited compute, by basically taking over from Grok’s computer hardware (I half expect Grok to get discontinued any day now - it sure seems like xAI has accepted that Claude is the front runner and they’re just getting behind it, kind of like what OpenAI agreed to do if they ever got behind in the AGI race back in ~2017).

    So what does OpenAI even lead at? Name recognition because they were first? At some point they were supposed to be specialising in medicine but I notice no difference between Gemini and ChatGPT when it comes to medical questions or analysis.

    My prediction is OpenAI will be the first big one to go bankrupt or be acquired, which is also probably why they are rushing this IPO: gotta get the founders cashed out.

    Somewhat of an aside, but I have no idea if AGI is actually possible with LLMs, but Claude is the closest thing to a person that I’ve used (even if it has its moments of abject retardation - not unlike humans, I guess).

    • lelanthran22 minutes ago
      > I have no personal skin in the game, but OpenAI seems like the weakest player. Claude and Gemini are both blatantly better.

      The market doesn't necessarily reward better products or (in this case) more intelligence.

      If it did, I'd be a lot richer than many of the mainstream startups.

      • avazhi16 minutes ago
        > The market doesn't necessarily reward better products or (in this case) more intelligence.

        It does when the product being sold is sold based on how intelligent (and thus how capable) it is. Unfortunately with people intelligence is merely an imprecise proxy of capability or organisational productivity.

  • yathartha3 hours ago
    [flagged]
  • SilverElfinan hour ago
    [dead]
  • throwawaygmbno3 hours ago
    What is the advice from the internet?

    Did you invest in Tesla and now invest in Open AI because who cares about ethics if you can make money?

    Anthropic has the obviously the better product and were seemingly ethically better until they burnt their developer goodwill and started accepting Musk infrastructure.

    But does having a better product actually translate to making more money?

    Should I just lay down and die because there's no good choice when it comes to investing in this product they market as killing off people's livelihoods?

    • tehlike3 hours ago
      You can sit this one out. There are many other opportunities to make money in the market. Ai build out is currently in play, and many names are rising accordinglym
      • nradov2 hours ago
        If you're invested in any index funds or most mutual funds (including through your retirement account) then you can't really sit this one out. We're all going along for the ride, hold on tight.
    • ant6nan hour ago
      Tesla used to be a kind of “ethical” play. They made electric cars cool.
    • DeathArrow2 hours ago
      >Anthropic has the obviously the better product

      According to what metrics does Anthropic have the better product?

      • SpicyLemonZest2 hours ago
        Reported number of business users, although as with all these metrics I feel obligated to emphasize the caveat that most analysis of the AI labs' finances is speculative. OpenAI remains dominant in the consumer chatbot space, but that's so obviously going to be commoditized that I don't think it matters.
        • phil212 hours ago
          Since the source code leak of Claud Code, is there an actual believable moat whatsoever any longer?

          I’m not nearly an expert at any level, but it seems to me the models themselves are converging on “good enough” for coding, with the real differentiator being the harness and tooling.

          From a bystander and casual user perspective it all seems running as fast as it can to commoditization to me.

          I’m certainly the dumb money here so won’t be investing short or long for any of these. But I do find it interesting!

          • bjtan hour ago
            The Claude Code client source was never their moat. There are plenty of other companies with equivalent tools (gemini cli, cursor cli, augment, codex, etc.) The models that it talks to are far more important.

            Not to say you're wrong about commoditization. I don't think these companies will be able to raise their prices and keep them there to make enough money to keep building models like they've been doing.