> However, as AI experts hypothesize about when, and if, AI will disrupt white-collar work, the technology thus far has made only a small splash in professional services. [...] Any returns the economy is seeing are largely confined to the tech industry, suggesting that AI disruption has been limited in the real economy.

There's one quote from the Dan Olson's "Line Goes Up" video essay [0] that's been rattling around in my head for a while now. (Predictably from 2022, if that was not obvious)

    > [...] it outlines just how disconnected from reality the people actually building cryptocurrencies really are. They don’t understand anything about the ecosystems they’re trying to disrupt, [...] and assume that because they understand one very complicated thing: programming with cryptography; that all other complicated things must be lesser in complexity and naturally lower in the hierarchy of reality. Nails easily driven by the hammer that they have created.

Specifically him calling the attitude the "technofetishistic egotism of assuming that programmers are uniquely suited to solve society’s problems" has stuck with me. I don't think AI developers are good judges of what a lawyer does in this case, so I'd rather be skeptical. I'm not saying that LLM tools AREN'T useful to lawyers or are capable of doing lawyer-like things... I'm just willing to humbly assume that I do not know what makes a good lawyer.

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ_xWvX1n9g&t=1405s (timestamped to quote)

“We know how to build AGI by 2025” - Sam Altman

Its all BS unless you have a demo to go with your remarks.

Why link to twitter post about a Fortune article? Just link to the article.

https://fortune.com/article/why-microsoft-ai-chief-mustafa-s...

The "version of this story" from February 13th, 2026 as noted in the article was originally posted here:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47006000

Cursory look on wayback and it looks pretty similar to me.

Maybe easier to just republish the article every few months vs making a new claim and doing a whole new story?

Didn’t they tell us this was going to happen several years ago? These predictions are embarrassing at this point. This is also a terrible way to garner public support and does nothing but strengthen opposition to these AI tools.

so he will be out of a job in 18 months?

Reminder that Google, who literally invented the transformer, say that's never happening:

https://xcancel.com/Hesamation/status/2045181640297578605?s=...

I'm more inclined to believe that over someone who failed to understand that Windows Notepad didn't need AI.