If/when it does, it will likely be because of erratic behavior on the part of the government (especially the executive branch), rather than the absolute magnitude of the debt itself.

Which is certainly high, especially given that the current administration made a hatchet job of cuts and yet increased total spending. But the country is still very productive, and has more than sufficient GDP to cover the interest. Which is all that's really required; the principal of the loan can roll over indefinitely.

That said... current total revenue is about $5.5 trillion. Taking out $2 trillion off the top begins to put a strain on the ability to pay for everything else.

So the house of cards is not on the verge of crashing down. But the government could well knock it over.

When US currency stops being backed by huge amounts of petrochemicals and the largest economy in the world. Or when China stops accepting dollars for stuff maybe? Who knows when it comes to macroeconomics. It's a bit like predicting weather.

Never.

The people accountable didn't get punished last time and they won't this time. You & I will pay for it.

Imo, the flaw is with our species itself, we never evolved to live in such large complex societies. And that's why it's trivial to distract a drooling sugar & dopamine addicted voterbase with issues like which bathroom people should be allowed to use, whilst billionaires become trillionaires and the planet slowly cooks despite token initiatives.

A few people started putting dates on this. Jamie Dimon said before 2035, Ray Dalio said around 2030.

Warren Buffet did not put a date on it (smart as usual) but he also said the current fiscal situation is not sustainable.

I hope soon