83 pointsby Brajeshwar7 hours ago15 comments
  • ceejayoz6 hours ago
    "This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it." - The Hunt for Red October
    • jedberg5 hours ago
      "I've planned ahead. We're just three miles from a primary target. A millisecond of brilliant light and we're vaporized. Much more fortunate than millions who wander sightless through the smoldering aftermath. We'll be spared the horror of survival." -- War Games

      I'm glad I live only a few miles from Moffit Airfield, which is almost certainly a primary target (given that besides taking out NASA you'd also get Google HQ). Knowing that I most likely wouldn't even perceive a nuclear attack is strangely comforting.

  • cjs_ac6 hours ago
    Australia has been making cardboard drones for military purposes for a while now: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-03/ukraine-war-australia...

    EDIT: The company that makes them first pitched them to the ADF in 2018: https://www.sypaq.com.au/news/sypaq-wins-for-the-cardboard-d...

  • comrade12346 hours ago
    From the headline I was picturing flying futurama-style suicide booths.
    • everdrive6 hours ago
      Depending on who invades who, that's more or less what we have.
  • analogpixel5 hours ago
    Aren't they worried the cardboard will catch fire on impact and cause damage?
    • avidruntime5 hours ago
      We have different interpretations of what suicide means
  • chvid6 hours ago
    But where is battery, engine, controller board, camera, optic cable etc from?
    • 5 hours ago
      undefined
    • ceejayoz5 hours ago
      AliExpress?

      In bulk, that'll cost you what, $50 or so?

      • chvid3 hours ago
        The same place as the Ukrainians and the Russians get their stuff.
    • bluefirebrand5 hours ago
      I wouldn't be surprised if the battery, camera and optic cable and such could be harvested from a smartphone nowadays

      Engine probably still needs to be custom but lightweight drone engines are off the shelf products so...

  • geremiiah6 hours ago
    One scary aspect of drones is that they can loiter around an area. Unlike shelling or traditional missiles, you can spam an enemy city with drones and they can remain operational and waiting, until people emerge from their bunkers. And soon enough (some psychopath is vibecoding it this very second for sure) drone control will be surrendered to some LLM based system to make the final life/death decision.

    Another chilling aspect of drone warfare is that you don't get to surrender. No prisoners are taken. You just get blown up even if you are clearly cornered, and helpless and in a traditional setting you'd have surrendered your weapon and became a POW.

    • zerkten5 hours ago
      Prisoners do get taken in situations where they'd be taken without drones. Drones hitting support groups behind enemy lines are akin to airstrikes. When drones are used on the frontline to support ground forces, the enemy will emerge and surrender. Some Russian units in the current invasion of Ukraine have surrendered to drones when ground forces haven't been as close as they'd like to accept the surrender.

      There will always be war crimes in a conflict of any scale. That is human nature even if we don't like it. If both sides aren't doing it with drones they are doing it with something else. You now see the action in every situation because there are cameras everywhere and incentive for all sides to shape the narrative with this content.

      As far as AI is concerned, there is the huge risk for problems. That said, you can have entire sectors of a battlefield that are kill zones for artillery but now you have drones taking more targeted action. Western artillery capabilities and approaches are more precise than those used by the likes of Russia, but it's a still a case of pummeling certain places. Drones hitting within a sector aren't much different and possibly have some long-term benefits.

    • graeme3 hours ago
      >Another chilling aspect of drone warfare is that you don't get to surrender. No prisoners are taken.

      This isn't true, you can surrender and there are videos of people doing so.

      You've perhaps seen videos of drones loitering, waiting a bit, and then moving in when the soldier does nothing. This is often waiting for a surrender sign.

      Normally the soldier in these videos is Russian. Why don't they surrender? First they may be shot by their own side if they try to follow the drone.

      Second, Russian soldiers have generally been recruited with large bonuses and even larger bonuses paid out in the event of their death, paid to their families. However, if they try to surrender and are shot for desertion there is no payout. Whereas if they stay still and die the Russian government gives their family money.

    • ceejayoz6 hours ago
      > One scary aspect of drones is that they can loiter around an area.

      There are some new ones that work like landmines, too; they sit on the ground until they detect something worth going after.

      > Another chilling aspect of drone warfare is that you don't get to surrender.

      You can. First one happened in 1991.

      https://www.wearethemighty.com/featured/humans-surrendered-t...

      It happens fairly regularly in Ukraine.

      https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukrai...

      • geremiiah6 hours ago
        I have seen the videos where they surrender. I have also seen the countless videos where they would clearly have surrendered if given a chance, but instead, they were blown up.
        • ceejayoz6 hours ago
          Sure; the same is true for humans shooting at you with machine guns and artillery. You don't always get a chance to surrender.
        • andriy_koval4 hours ago
          > I have also seen the countless videos where they would clearly have surrendered if given a chance, but instead, they were blown up.

          surrender is likely usually accepted when its possible, but with drones it is often logistically difficult because frontline is very wide now.

      • MisterTea6 hours ago
        > There are some new ones that work like landmines, too; they sit on the ground until they detect something worth going after.

        Half-life 2 manhack vibes.

    • esseph6 hours ago
      > And soon enough (some psychopath is vibecoding it this very second for sure) drone control will be surrendered to some LLM based system to make the final life/death decision. Another chilling aspect of drone warfare is that you don't get to surrender. No prisoners are taken. You just get blown up even if you are clearly cornered, and helpless and in a traditional setting you'd have surrendered your weapon and became a POW.

      Okay I need to refute some of this.

      1. LLMs haven't been used so much for terminal phase targeting to my knowledge. There's not really any benefit. It takes a lot of power and electronics that aren't needed when you can just do optical image matching.

      2. Drones have taken a fair amount of prisoners. They're way more valuable alive than dead for intelligence purposes and prisoner swaps.

      https://www.facebook.com/NYPost/videos/ukraine-drone-spares-...

    • EB-BarringtonII6 hours ago
      Counterpoint from my time in a brutal warzone, as a civilian.

      Maybe if you voluntarily join the military of a country known for invasions and war, you're not that helpless to begin with. And, if you get sent to another country with the goal to kill soldiers and civilians, and you yourself get killed by a drone it’s not that chilling.

      • geremiiah5 hours ago
        I'm not American and I was not thinking from the perspective of an American inclined to join the US military.

        Moreover consider that the situation sucks both for the soldier being blown up and also for the one doing the blowing up. If I were to be a soldier, I would like the option of taking the enemy prisoner if I could, instead of having to needlessly turn them into minced meat. I think, it is a very human desire to make war, less cruel.

        The positive aspect of drones is that maybe war will turn in a purely economic contest, drones against drones, until one side has exhausted their supply and are forced to declare defeat.

        • ericmay5 hours ago
          > I'm not American and I was not thinking from the perspective of an American inclined to join the US military.

          I would have thought your first inclination would be to say you're not Russian and not thinking from the perspective of a Russian inclined to join in on the unjust invasion of Ukraine.

          But you could also perhaps look at it from the perspective of someone who is a member of Hamas, bombing and attacking civilian targets, or the IRGC launching one of the hundreds to thousands of drone attacks unjustly.

          > The positive aspect of drones is that maybe war will turn in a purely economic contest, drones against drones, until one side has exhausted their supply and are forced to declare defeat.

          I think in an age of more deadly drone warfare and less human intervention you'll start to see more deaths and more destruction.

      • bb885 hours ago
        Agree. However the key word there is "voluntarily". If a war gets too ugly, the supply of volunteers will dry up. And then you're looking at a draft.

        It's been a while since the vietnam war, but we (the general public in the US) have forgotten how ugly a war can be.

        • bombcar5 hours ago
          I’d say the USA has collectively forgotten the last time they were in a “civilians involved” war, which I’d place back to the Civil War.
          • esseph4 hours ago
            WWII gave us Rosie the Riveter, rationing of materials and goods, internment, Pearl Harbor, etc.

            9/11 was narrow geographically but had a large emotional, political, and economic impact stateside.

            • bombcar2 hours ago
              All those are true but they didn’t have bombs dropping on them.

              In the civil war not only might your son be sent to the front, but the front might end up in your yard.

      • cwillu5 hours ago
        That's fine while we're talking about countries with all volunteer militaries, but that list does not include any of Russia, Ukraine, Iran, nor Israel.
      • bluefirebrand5 hours ago
        So what about when your warzone turns into a peace zone, civilians start to move back in, and autonomous drones left behind by militaries start to kill them?

        There are still countries in the world that have landmines from previous wars, after all.

        • esseph4 hours ago
          Batteries don't last that long
          • bluefirebrand9 minutes ago
            I suspect that some clever engineer could figure that out. Small solar cells or something maybe, idk.
  • Onavo6 hours ago
    The airframe is the cheapest part of the drone though. You can make it out of Balsa wood and foam like traditional "model planes" and there won't be any major performance differences. Modern CAD is very good at simulating stress on the frame and as long as your engine's powerful enough, most materials should hold up fine at those scales for single use (anything smaller than than a Cessna basically).
  • excalibur6 hours ago
    $2000 apiece for cardboard?!
    • ceejayoz6 hours ago
      I presume that includes the engine, sensors, etc.
    • r_lee6 hours ago
      its Military-grade cardboard
      • euroderf4 hours ago
        It works even down to -60°C.
  • ck25 hours ago
    if another country towed a raft full of thousands of cheap drone off a US coast and launched them into the country we have absolutely no defense

    they could take out all water and power utilities on the entire east coast over 24 hours

    our million dollar missiles would be useless even if Whiskey-Pete was more than willing to use them over crowded cities

    North Korea, Russia, China, et al

    and considering we've depleted a decade's worth of weapons and half of the fleet is overseas, we're pretty darn vulnerable right now thanks to those in power

    I wonder how far away we are from "dirty drones" where they don't even need a bomb, just radioactive material or toxic chemicals as dust

  • WillPostForFood6 hours ago
    Misleading headline, not sure if the article is misleading because it is paywalled, but so far, these are drones used as targets for anti-drone practice.
    • ceejayoz6 hours ago
      > Naoki said that the AirKamuy 150 could carry around three pounds, which is just enough to carry a small amount of supplies or munitions to a target and it’s not hard to imagine swarms of incendiary cardboard drones slamming into targets in the near future.

      "so far" is for the next five minutes or so.

      It's a bit silly to claim a misleading headline when you can't read the article. https://archive.is/5Pqg6

  • actionfromafar6 hours ago
    They must have been tempted to write "Kamikaze drones". Anyway, interesting development, I wonder why it hasn't been popular to use cardboard so far. Maybe cardboard weighs more, cutting in to payload capability?
    • nine_k6 hours ago
      Cardboard is heavy and not very strong. Quadcopter drones carry their payload all by the motors' thrust, and experience large accelerations; they would break if made out of cardboard.

      OTOH small airplanes like the one pictured derive most of their lift from wings, and are not expected to do aerobatic, so they have somehow lower requirements for strength, and cost considerations can take over.

      I wonder what would be the military usefulness of such a drone: it's much more visible, likely has rather low payload capacity, and cannot hover. It could work as a recon drone, or a retransmitter for extending communications range. It may be significantly more quiet than a quadcopter, it could even glide with the motor off, so it could sneak towards manned positions, especially in the dark.

      • NoGravitas3 hours ago
        > I wonder what would be the military usefulness of such a drone

        To deplete anti-drone defenses; to provide cover for heavier Shahed type drones.

        > it could even glide with the motor off, so it could sneak towards manned positions, especially in the dark.

        Return of the Night Witches.

      • roughly5 hours ago
        > I wonder what would be the military usefulness of such a drone

        If you're talking about the cardboard drone specifically: it's incredibly cheap to manufacture, which means you can easily deploy a gazillion of them. They're bullet sponges - a modern day Zerg rush.

    • HNisCIS6 hours ago
      The airframe isn't the main cost driver for these things and cardboard is aerodynamically inefficient. You could blow mould or a million other techniques and get a better, possibly cheaper airframe.
      • esseph6 hours ago
        Styrofoam works great for short to medium range glide interceptors that are supposed to be cheaper than the attacking airframe (less weight, less fuel/energy required, less explosive required etc.).

        Ukraine seems to be pouring a lot of these right now.

        • pfdietz6 hours ago
          Styrofoam has been used in model aircraft for decades. It's easily shaped with a hot wire.
    • chucksta6 hours ago
      weather and protecting it from it?
      • Alive-in-20256 hours ago
        I'd suspect almost all drones lose significant range if wet or stormy. But in Ukraine the drone war seemed to go on all winter
  • Ayaan20046 hours ago
    Kamikaze was always Japanese either it planes in world war 2 or drones for world war 3
    • WalterBright6 hours ago
      Ballistic missiles are also kamikazi. Also, proximity detecting artillery shells. and torpedos.
      • tartoran5 hours ago
        None of the above carry a human that is willing to die with the target.
        • roughly5 hours ago
          Nor do these drones
    • pfdietz6 hours ago
      Kamikazes have been described as anti-ship missiles before it was possible to build anti-ship missiles.
    • WalterBright6 hours ago
      Doolittle: “What is your one purpose in life?”

      Bomb: “To explode, of course.”

  • pigpag6 hours ago
    It's sad to see Japan completely ditch their "unconditional peace" brand after WWII.
    • MisterTea6 hours ago
      > "unconditional peace" brand after WWII.

      It was not by choice.

  • falcor846 hours ago
    > The AirKamuy 150 is a cheap pre-fab cardboard drone meant to die on the battlefield

    Oh, that makes more sense. I probably watched too many episodes of Futurama for my mind to immediately imagine drones used by people to commit suicide.

    • bravoetch5 hours ago
      I had a similar reaction to the headline. The idea that munitions 'suicide' doesn't seem novel enough to have it in the headline. We don't say suicide icbms, or suicide cruise missiles etc.
      • esseph4 hours ago
        A drone isn't necessarily a munition.

        Some carry things like air to air missiles or act as communications relays for other drones.

        Some have multiple munitions.

        Some are the munition.