25 pointsby muzzy193 hours ago4 comments
  • dotcoma3 hours ago
    There's a problem...

    Population of the US: 349 M, of which 250-300 M use Google services, multiplied by 1605 USD per user = from 401 B USD to 481 B USD, but in 2025 Alphabet did 403 B in total, from every service, in the whole world.

    • nonameiguessa minute ago
      Caveat I'm no expert on Google ads. Never bought one, never plan to, never advertised anything at all on any service. But since I'm capable of doing a basic web search, I found:

      https://support.google.com/google-ads/answer/6366577?hl=en

      This is the process for determining which ads get run. The bid is only one of many factors, so as their support document indicates, the price you pay is often quite lower than the bid, which reflects a ceiling rather than a real sale price.

      https://support.google.com/google-ads/answer/2580383?sjid=17...

      This is their guidance on demographic targeting. Note there is no category allowing you intentionally target children. This doesn't mean advertisers can't figure out some way to do it anyway, but it means Proton can only sample from adults. Presumably, some probably very large number of the people who "use Google services" in your estimate are children, which childstats.gov indicates represent about 22% of all Americans. That makes it more like 195-235M adult users of Google services.

      https://support.google.com/google-ads/answer/2464960

      As indicated here, you don't pay to place an ad. You pay for clicks, so regardless of what you bid and who you target, Google isn't getting revenue for the number of placements you bid on, which is what Proton is sampling here. Presumably of the 250 x 0.78 to 300 x 0.78 million adult users advertisers are placing those $1605 average bids on, quite a bit fewer than 100% actually click on at least one ad.

    • cebert2 hours ago
      There are some people who don’t use Google. I use Duck Duck Go for search. Additionally, with the rise of LLMs I have been using search much less in general.
      • dathinab14 minutes ago
        and ad blockers also can kill ad revenue in various ways (like by not displaying them, or even if displayed by causing them to not be counted due to not realizing they where displayed or finding irregularities due to which they are classified as bot views).

        similar anti-fingerprinting tech can kill ad revenue as it makes users non distinguishable from bots (but likely doesn't matter here)

      • dotcoma2 hours ago
        Let's say 100 M ?
    • itemize1232 hours ago
      google's the middleman, and it won't capture the whole 1600 right?
      • dotcoma2 hours ago
        No. They are saying 1605 USD is the average amount Google make from a user in the US.
        • 2 hours ago
          undefined
    • amazingamazing2 hours ago
      Presumably this only counts internet users who use Google.
      • dotcoma2 hours ago
        Correct. If 250 M people use it in the US out of a population of 349 M, Google would make 401 B USD out of them, vs 403 B USD in worldwide revenues. These numbers do not look right to me.
        • amazingamazingan hour ago
          If you’re going to extrapolate you should use the median, which would put it at 200B for USA.
          • dathinab4 minutes ago
            that isn't how the median works

            median is the sample in the middle of the distribution is treated as a sequence of samples ordered by their value, e.g. if you have sort(seq(dist))=[100$, 5$, 5$, 3$, 1$] the median is 5$

            average is sum(dist)/count(dist), so avg * size(dist) => sum(dist) (in the example above that would be avg. 22.8, total 114, size 5

            if you where to multiple the median by count you had 25$ which is very much very wrong

          • dotcoma39 minutes ago
            Why ?
    • hacker_homie3 hours ago
      revenue vs profit?
    • yieldcrv2 hours ago
      ok, and?

      proton did 54,000 samples of US users and made an average of what advertisers are willing to pay to target, not what they actually did across the whole population

      and plus this isn’t to inform you, it’s to sell you on another proton honeypot

      • dotcomaan hour ago
        I think you are right on this point.
  • dathinab16 minutes ago
    This is a good example of why averages (by themself) can be very misleading:

    - avg. $1_605

    - but mean is $760, i.e. half the users generate $760 or less

    I also wouldn't be surprised if the sampling distribution has two maxima even if smoothed (on around the mean and another at the lower end). Would be nice to have that plotted out properly.

    • JumpCrisscross15 minutes ago
      > mean is $760, i.e. half the users generate $760 or less

      Median*. Mean and median are both measures of averages, though colloquially average is taken to exclusively mean the mean.

      • dathinab3 minutes ago
        yes, typo/auto correct
  • derwiki2 hours ago
    Glad I block ads and use Kagi
  • kybb42 hours ago
    Add Meta and the rest of the Attention Economy and for a family of 4 they extract 10K a year. The rest of the world its like $700-1K. The US Attention pool gets overfished because thats where most of the world cash sits. Over optimized Cream Skimming.