Simulation of the Hormuz crisis after Iran seizure of 2 ships with 6 LLM agents(colab.research.google.com)
3 pointsby dinarino8 hours ago2 comments
  • Jtsummers7 hours ago
    https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47863380 - How many accounts do you have and how many times are you going to submit basically the same thing? I count three accounts that all claim to be Vincenzo Manto. One by that name, this one, and the one I linked to.
    • VincenzoManto7 hours ago
      Hi, it's a team project. Riccardo Dal Cero is the second main contributor, as you can see also in the repo. Yep, the linked account (vinserello) it's also me but idk why I logged in with this one :(
      • Jtsummers7 hours ago
        https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47847129 - If vinserello is you, then why did you comment on this variation of the submission as if you were uninvolved in it? It's dishonest, and will make people who notice it uninterested in your work and more likely to flag your submissions.
        • VincenzoManto6 hours ago
          Yes, sorry, I just wanted to clarify a point in a comment. I thought the comment itself was clear enough about my involvement. I actually said something like "let us know what you would change in the scenario..." We didn't mean to be intrusive, just to share a result of our work that we think could be useful to other researchers in the ABM field. I apologize again if we presented it too "aggressively".
          • Jtsummers6 hours ago
            > I actually said something like "let us know what you would change in the scenario..."

            There's no reason to lie, people can read the comment I'm referencing but I'll quote it here:

            >> What about modelling geopolitical scenarios?

            Which is nothing like your description of it. And then your collaborator, or someone using their name, also commented with:

            >> Good! Really interesting idea!

            Those comments are written as if they are not involved in the project. It's dishonest, not "aggressive".

  • dinarino8 hours ago
    I simulated the Strait of Hormuz crisis where agents (US, Iran, Israel) manage quanlitative resources like "political capital" and "strait control" via local LLMs. The simulation showed emergent US military intervention on ships: the operation works but it couldn't balance the narrative spin against the economic blockade. Built with a custom YAML framework to test how trade utility and military operations impact automated diplomatic decision-making.
    • kstenerud7 hours ago
      But that's not actually how it will go down. The assumptions are incorrect, and the goals misstated.

      Iran wants the permanent imposition of tolls on the strait so that they can become masters of the region. They also want nukes so that they can become untouchable like the USA. The only credible threats to that goal are the USA and Israel. The USA is an isolationist nation at heart, and will eventually give up. Iran knows this. All they have to do is goad the USA into a ground war, which the USA will lose and then leave. There's actually a pretty decent likelihood that Iran will succeed in getting American boots on the ground, because eventually Trump will start to look weak and foolish as he repeats his schtick and Iran remains defiant and gas prices rise.

      China and Russia are happy about this despite the pain, because it furthers their long term geopolitical goals (although China will backstab Russia and annex the East). They're even helping Iran in whatever ways escape notice.

      The USA is currently an extension of Trump. Trump treats geopolitics like he does business: Hit them hard with the threat of a worst-case scenario and then reap the rewards of their capitulation. When this doesn't work, he "extends the deadline" and tries again. World leaders are starting to notice.

      Any "maritime operations" will be useless gestures that look nice on paper, but accomplish nothing in reality. They'll destroy a few things, but Iran will continue hitting ships, and nothing will flow. Such an operation will be used as America's exit strategy so that they can present their failure as a success back home (where nobody actually understands or cares, so long as "we won").