15 pointsby realpolitik96 hours ago3 comments
  • icegreentea22 hours ago
    There's other news floating around from Citrini saying similar things - the actual substack post (behind a paywall https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/strait-of-hormuz-a-citrini...), and some news coverage - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/06/wall-street-firm-sends-analy...

    Being able to put up toll booths on the Strait is another knife to the body of international law and the good old rules based order.

    • arvid-lind2 hours ago
      > another knife to the body of international law and the good old rules based order

      All according to plan, it seems.

    • wak90an hour ago
      What rules based "order" lol
      • Markoffan hour ago
        Rules for everyone except Epstein coalition I guess.
  • OutOfHere2 hours ago
    Firstly, Iran has no authority to collect toll in international waters. Imagine if a dozen other countries started using its approach of deploying configurable naval mines in international waters to collect tolls outside their territory.

    Secondly, Iran definitely is blocking ships of countries that it considers hostile to Iran, with no choice of a toll for them.

    Thirdly, Iran is funding terrorists in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon.

    • adrian_b2 hours ago
      So you agree with TFA, which says:

      "The legal position is weak. Transit passage under UNCLOS Part III guarantees free, continuous, and unobstructed passage for all ships. This is customary international law, binding even on non-parties. Iran signed UNCLOS but never ratified it. The selective nature of the blockade, permitting some flag states while denying others, violates the principle of non-discrimination between flag states."

      But then which is your opinion about the authority of USA to block the traffic through international waters?

      Before attacking Iran, in February, USA has instituted a blockade of Cuba, intercepting the oil tankers headed to Cuba and causing thus a severe shortage of fuel in Cuba, which has caused a lot of problems to the ordinary Cuban citizens.

      Thus it is quite shameless today for USA to criticize Iran for the selective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, when USA was the first to provide an example for this kind of action. Moreover, unlike Iran, USA has started the blockade totally unprovoked and not against an attacker and its allies.

      Since USA has been the first country demonstrating that they will break any international laws and treaties whenever they please, now any other country has the right to do the same thing, when this is directed against USA or its allies.

    • ThatMedicIsASpy2 hours ago
      While being attacked by terrorists named USA and Isreal.
    • forty2 hours ago
      Unfortunately, Israel and US have no authority to bomb Iran, capture Venezuela's head of state or commit genocide in Gaza and it seemed it was not enough to prevent those either. Looks like the only rule is "whatever to can impose by violence is okay" and by this measure, Iran is operating within the current international rules
    • orwin43 minutes ago
      > Imagine if a dozen other countries started using its approach of deploying configurable naval mines in international waters to collect tolls outside their territory.

      I can very well imagine a country institute a blockade around another to manufacture a local economic crisis. Honestly I would rather have the US put a toll on vessels than shooting indiscriminately, or completely blockading Cuba.

    • Geeek2 hours ago
      I mean, looking at recent international events, they have all the authority to do it and we have all the authority to stop them. Apparently international rules and norms are made up.
      • arvid-lind2 hours ago
        > Apparently international rules and norms are made up

        slowly, over time, after we see abuses and hostility that require them. I guess eventually enough people get complacent and comfortable with the sense of order, opening an opportunity for the powerful to create chaos and profit from the disruption.

    • tokai2 hours ago
      >Iran has no authority to collect toll

      That's like that old copy pasta "If you're being mugged, just say no. Your robbers cannot legally take any of your possessions.". Its not legal sure, but their authority lies in high explosives delivered by sea and air.

    • chneu31 minutes ago
      Let's stop using the word terrorist because it's completely meaningless. Right now, the US and Israel are the terrorists. You realize the US and Israel are committing war crimes every hour right now by bombing schools and infrastructure, right? Trump is literally bragging while having tantrums on truth social about how he's committing war crimes.

      Iran has every right to protect themselves and achieve nuclear power for energy independence. The US and Israel just want to destabilize the region for oil. Did we already forget trump has publicly said this about Venezuela and Iran? There are no WMDs this time, Trump has publicly said this is to overthrow Iran and install more friendly leadership, LITERAL TERRORISM STUFF.

      You're defending the US/Israel who have publicly bragged about destabilizing nations and taking land that doesn't belong to them while bragging about the oil they're taking. Israel just got done genocide gaza and knows it has the US'$ backing to continue eradicating their enemies. And again, they HAVE SAID THIS. You have to be an absolute fool or a horrible person to still support the US/Israel's military actions right now. Iran didn't start this, whatsoever.

  • Snoozus2 hours ago
    Is this a human writing in the style of LLMs?

    The exemption is diplomatic, not commercial.

    The Yuan Dimension

    I hate it.

    • realpolitik9an hour ago
      Fair cop on the headers, I write these at 2am and it shows. But on the diplomatic/commercial thing. Iran charges ~$1/barrel in yuan through Kunlun Bank. That's real money through real channels. And the access list keeps expanding, started with 5 countries in March and now it's 10+. If this were purely diplomatic the list would be stable, but it's growing like a customer base. You could argue the fee follows the politics and not the other way around but then why yuan specifically, and why route it through Kunlun Bank with a per-barrel rate structure. Every transit builds volume through yuan settlement channels that bypass dollar clearing. The Danish Sound Dues ran for 400 years on the same logic, different rates for different nations depending on who Denmark was allied with. None of this is new, it's just never been done at 20% of global oil supply before
      • icegreentea2an hour ago
        I don't think its meaningful to talk about commercial/diplomat as such clear categories at this level.

        Bypassing dollar clearing is only really a commercial concern because it is a political/diplomatic concern.

        Diplomacy is the act of non-violent interactions between countries. Commerce is (generally...) a non-violent form of interaction between countries. High level diplomatic actions enable commerce (of various forms and levels), while commerce creates incentives for diplomacy, and creates the strength for a party to perform diplomacy.