49 pointsby prmph7 hours ago11 comments
  • vrganj7 hours ago
    This whole war has already been a weird suicide ritual when it comes to American soft power.

    I guess hard power is next.

    The American Empire, burnt down by its own Nero/Caligula hybrid, while the population just watches it happen...

    • heresie-dabord6 hours ago
      "Come now, don't exaggerate," said numerous apologists. "How bad can a bad person possibly be?"

      It would seem that a bad person, elected to the highest office, surrounded by equally corrupt appointees, can do harm on a global scale. And all of it is home-grown. The entire population of deportees posed less of a threat then what the US has bestowed upon itself in one presidential term.

    • sheikhnbake6 hours ago
      > while the population just watches it happen...

      About 1/5 of America voted for this guy after seeing the trainwreck of his first admin.

      At the same time, protests response is continually growing and breaking records as economic disparities and totalitarian responses intensify.

      • _aavaa_5 hours ago
        Looking at all Americans in deceiving. For starters, 1/5 are below the voting age.

        49.8% of voters voted for this.

    • prmph6 hours ago
      I guess now would be a good time for China to make its move on you-know-who.
      • unsnap_biceps4 hours ago
        I'm starting to believe that China isn't going to make the move. It's winning the hearts and minds of the rest of the world and will be able to leverage its growing soft power well beyond what Taiwan would provide. I just don't see them giving up the position the US has abandoned.
        • prmph4 hours ago
          I'm starting to think so as well. The Chinese are typically cautious geopolitically, and very strategic. They may well have made the calculus that for the foreseeable future, they have more to gain from keeping the status quo re Taiwan while their rivals score own goals, waiting for a possible rapprochement with Taiwan on favorable terms.

          That's something the factions in the Middle East miss: sometimes great change comes from patiently applying pressure and infiltrating from within, rather than a frontal attack.

        • Smoosh3 hours ago
          I suspect that they are willing to wait a few more years until they have built up their own chip making capacity so that disrupting Formosa won’t strongly affect their own economy, while it will hinder other developed countries.
          • orwin2 hours ago
            I'm not so sure about that. Taiwan pro-reunification party still grows, and its economy is hyper-specialized (not surprising, neocolonialism etc). If china's chip production capacity reach acceptable level (which it will), enough to put downward pressure on lesser chip, Taiwan economy might suffer enough that they vote for a reunification, probably as an autonomous regions (like Guangxi or Ningxia). That would be China's ultimate win.
        • vrganj4 hours ago
          China's better move rn would be to go for the big soft power play and ditch the Russians for the abandoned Europeans.
          • vkou2 hours ago
            China doesn't think in that way. It doesn't make permanent alliances. It is always open to reach limited, scoped deals in fields where it benefits them.
      • adventured5 hours ago
        Not just yet, they should wait for a little bit. The US isn't done depleting its inventory yet, the US might get itself in a lot deeper yet, and the US population will only detest the war even more given time. All of those things will help China take Taiwan. If Iran gets ugly enough the US population will just have that much less willingness to get involved in another major conflict. 3-18 months for Taiwan (9-18 more likely; China still needs some prep). There's no scenario where China isn't going to successfully take the island after this. They now know the US isn't at all prepared to stand off with them in coastal Asia. It would take years of surge production to get ready, the US doesn't have years re Taiwan.

        If China is going in, we'll start to see large signs of that. They'll begin a number of prominent campaigns, including sabotage, propaganda, extremely large supply movements, and so on.

    • duxup5 hours ago
      I believe Trump when asked about climate change said something to the effect of "I'll be dead by then."

      I think that applies most everything he does in a way.

    • Johanx646 hours ago
      What do you think American Empire is all about if not controlling the oil rich countries in middle east, as well as extremely oil rich countries like Venezuela?

      The only failing here is that America has decaying, hallowed out industrial base where it can't just cheaply mass produce and replenish hi-end rockets and tech to take care of business-as-usual quickly, because everything down to raw materials is just so expensive.

      • vrganj6 hours ago
        Oil itself is becoming irrelevant quickly. It's a play for becoming king of the ashes.
        • Johanx644 hours ago
          Familiarize yourself with this: https://www.worldometers.info/oil/

          Top reserves by country, historical data on consumption (including by country).

          These basic data points explain US foreign policy better than anything.

          There is no data or trends that supports the notion that oil is becoming irrelevant, much less quickly.

          US with it's current reserves and oil consumption rate would last roughly 12 years, btw.

          • bakies2 hours ago
            That doesn't mean it won't happen.
            • Johanx64an hour ago
              I mean something undeniably WILL happen as the world has roughly 47 years left at current consumption rate of oil.

              Whether what's going to happen will be whatever it is you're imagining is completely different story entirely.

              Needless to say, If you have a largely deindustrialized country you can't really make any sort of transition happen yourself anyway, not at the grand scale and speed necessary for this endeavour.

              Expect fireworks.

          • Teeveran hour ago
            I always find this chart really insightful:

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whale_oil#/media/File:US_Whale...

        • nathanaldensr5 hours ago
          This is simply not true by most objective metrics... unless you don't like plastic and fertilizer?
          • OutOfHere4 hours ago
            We produce a lot of biofuel from corn which can in principle be converted and used to make some but not all types of plastics.
    • constantius6 hours ago
      Genuine question for Americans: donyou not think that a Democrat today would be leading the same war? We're talking about a party that facilitated, and took part in, 1 year of genocide.

      In what world could you imagine Israel's planned war against Iran not being automatically supported by whatever US party was in power?

      • fabian2k6 hours ago
        The default US policy tends towards starting wars in the middle east. But even very hawkish previous administrations never started this particular one, for the reasons we're seeing right now. So I strongly doubt a Harris administration would have.

        You're also ignoring just how far outside the norms Trumps administration is. They're entirely dysfunctional, breaking all kinds of laws and full of unqualified extremist with their own agendas.

      • spaghetdefectsan hour ago
        Yes, I think the Democrats would be fighting this war for Israel, just like they did in Gaza. If anything, it's almost good that Trump is leading this as it means the war does not have the support of the neoliberal citizens (politicians are another story). He's also even less competent, "saying the quiet parts out loud"... This is true accelerationism. Clearly it would be better to abandon Israel and not fight any of their wars for them, but flailing incompetently, sinking Israel and creating an Iranian super-power is the second best outcome.
      • thisislife25 hours ago
        You are being downvoted for stating the truth - you are absolutely right that the Democrats too would have fully supported Israel's attack on Iran. Let us not forget that Biden played a major role in Israel's ongoing genocide in Gaza (and now in West bank) by helping the IDF spread its propaganda hoax that "Hamas beheaded babies", in the western media (Biden lied that he had personally seen the "horrific pictures " - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamas_baby_beheading_hoax ). Of course, unlike Trump, a Democratic party administration would have resorted to hypocrisy and propaganda that the war was for "democracy", "human rights", "save jews", "fight terrorism" etc. etc. But it would have been much shorter - they would have killed the Iranians leaders too, and struck military targets and then stopped.
        • Gud4 hours ago
          Doubtful.
  • ceejayoz7 hours ago
    We've been told their air defenses are completely wiped out.

    Why do we need stealthy cruise missiles now?

    • phtrivier7 hours ago
      To win the war another time, I guess ? To be fair, he told us we would get "tired of winning".

      On a more serious note : could it be that iranian air defense is being supplemented by an ally ? Someone further east ?

      Or, simply, that they kept some reserve to keep the war long, and play with the American customer's never ?

      • sheikhnbake7 hours ago
        Iran has been preparing for this for decades. I wouldn't be surprised if they held a hidden reserve for air defense and let the USAF 'get comfortable' before redeploying
        • KellyCriterion6 hours ago
          There was a ("propaganda") video by the Iran Forces some weeks ago showing some underground facilites: If even half of it is true shown there, then they have large capacities.
          • sheikhnbake6 hours ago
            Even if they don't, US war planners now have to factor the possibility of hidden AA defenses in their risk calculus moving forward. So no matter what, a win for Iran to some degree
      • dboreham7 hours ago
        If your enemy loudly proclaims for decades that their strategy is to initially destroy AA capability then roam at will through clear airspace, presumably it doesn't take much imagination to plan to not reveal some proportion of your AA capability initially?
      • tokai7 hours ago
        Why make up unsubstantiated claims about Chinese support, when it is known that Russia supports Iran with military hardware?
        • thisislife25 hours ago
          Contrary to popular belief, Iran's most important arms supplier has been China, and not Russia, in the last decade. To preserve its ties with Israel and Saudi Arabia, Russia has sometimes compromised arm shipments to Iran. Historically too, Russia has worked with France and Britain to undermine Iran, through the Shah.
        • vkou7 hours ago
          Russia's pretty busy with its own war.
          • ceejayoz6 hours ago
            But probably itching to do to the US what the US did to them in Ukraine.

            (And doing so is likely to reduce US aid to Ukraine, as a bonus to them. Ukraine's certainly not likely to get Tomahawks and Patriots right now.)

            • vkou5 hours ago
              What US aid? Trump's been stonewalling it for them just fine.
              • ceejayoz5 hours ago
                I said "did to", not "is currently doing to".
          • mcphage6 hours ago
            And what better way to support that by making some money selling weapons, especially if it gives you a chance to expand your manufacturing base due to increased demand?
    • jm46 hours ago
      Iran claimed today that they have a new homegrown air defense system in use. I saw another report about a new Chinese system deployed in Iran that was used to hit the F35.

      Who knows what’s true, but it’s 100% clear that the administration is lying to us and maybe even to themselves. We lost multiple aircraft yesterday. That F15 would likely only be used in situations where we believe we have air superiority. The fact that it was shot down is a big fuck up and suggests the people in charge don’t actually know what they’re up against.

    • burnt-resistor4 hours ago
      Because arms manufacturers need to sell a lie, "lack of stealth makes everything vulnerable", when it may have applied to symmetric conventional warfare 30 years ago. These days, peer adversaries have multi-modal IRST/EO systems in addition to AESA that make radar-obsessing "stealth" completely lose the plot on other risks and considerations. The F-35 damaged in Iran is just one example of this.
  • helsinkiandrew6 hours ago
    There’s a tweet by Radigan Carter from a few weeks ago that has a great historical perspective - If you’re not interested on the possible financial outcomes skip to the “How This Started” section.

    https://x.com/radigancarter/status/2035073252134129757?s=46

    >In Shia theology, standing against injustice is obligatory especiallywhen you cannot win in conventional terms. Defeat and death are not failure, capitulating in the face of overwhelming injustice is the failure.

  • java-man7 hours ago
    While China is preparing for annexation of Taiwan in 2028.
    • beached_whale6 hours ago
      There is a lesson in Ukraine and Iran being that invading a prepared country isn't easy and takes full commitment. Taiwan is most likely very prepared to defend itself.
      • wiseowise6 hours ago
        It might be prepared, but opportunity like that doesn’t present itself very often. Both US and Russia are tied in huge wars and won’t have spare capacity to answer Chinese aggression.
      • swat5354 hours ago
        One thing to note, is that Ukraine has received billions of dollars of aid from EU and United States.

        I'm not sure if the West has that kind of cash to dish out after the current war with IRAN.

    • phtrivier7 hours ago
      At some point someone will stop joking that Trump is a "Russian asset" and start assuming that he's paid by Xi to ensure a millenia of Chinese domination.

      Which would be wrong of course : he's ensuring millenia of Chinese domination, and he's getting paid for it, just not by China.

      2028 is going to be... Weird. But it will be Rubio or Vance of Heghseig's problem.

    • coffinbirth7 hours ago
      Do not pay attention to the many war crimes the U.S perpetrates on a daily basis in Iran and elsewhere... LOOK THERE CHINA, CHINA BAD, CHINA BAD, CHINA BAD, [...]
      • ambicapter7 hours ago
        That's not the point of parent comment, at all.
        • coffinbirth7 hours ago
          It is, OP is repeating anti China talking points of the Mainstream Media, pretending that China is a legitimate future military target of the US.
          • yunnpp6 hours ago
            The fact of the matter is that OP's statement is so vague it could be interpreted any way. You are just projecting your own interpretation onto it. Without knowing anything else about what OP intended to say, one should make a good-faith read of it. I just read it as "war is escalating across the globe". To somehow assume that what he meant is that one country is bad and the other good is a childish way to understand geopolitics and bad-faith interpretation of the statement.
          • catlikesshrimp7 hours ago
            That wording is inflamatory. You meant China and the US might enter in military conflict in a not too distant future.

            The point of parent is that the US is not considering an intervention in the conflict agaisnt Taiwan. It is doing nothing for Ukraine, either.

  • CrzyLngPwd6 hours ago
    Still, the war is very complete, pretty much, according to the most powerful man in charge of the most powerful military...practically every day since day 3.

    Was there ever a plan or even a goal?

    So now the US is spending more of its own vital weapons, which will leave Taiwan largely undefended on a war without goals and without end.

    China must be laughing about.

    Once all these US weapons have been squandered on an unwinable war with Iran, then China surely must invade Taiwan, as a better opportunity may never present itself.

    * What's with the downvotes? Don't like the truth?

    • sheikhnbake6 hours ago
      Hardware and equipment aside, there's been an ongoing purge of personnel in the DoD (DoW) since the admin took office. The pentagon was recently described as 'like game of thrones' due to military personnel getting axed over disagreements with the admin on Iran.

      This has been the case for a while now but the US military is steadily being filled with sycophants and MAGA ideologues

    • vkou2 hours ago
      > Was there ever a plan or even a goal?

      There was. Decapitation strike -> ??? -> Regime change.

      Anyone who said this plan was stupid was fired.

      The regime's war on DEI is more a war against Dissent, Ethics, and Intelligence.

  • cyanydeez4 hours ago
    Someone make a plugin that replaces all war equipment headlines with theie costs
  • 3KahaR6 hours ago
    Before the war started, they thought they could mobilize the protesters by just whacking some top officials. That failed.

    Then they thought that they could mobilize the usual proxies like the Kurds against Iran. Unfortunately, the Kurds have been used and dropped multiple times in history already. And they see what happens to a US proxy in Ukraine. So it failed.

    Now Hegseth has fired the top general and replaced him with a loyalist. Probably the previous general opposed depleting all stock piles for the Führer's great vision.

    Most likely: After 48 days Trump will declare "mission accomplished", retreat, leave the FUBAR situation in Hormuz to other people and prepare for the next grand excursion in a year or so. While his cronies are selling US oil and gas to the EU morons.

  • librasteve4 hours ago
    nam 2.0
  • coffinbirth7 hours ago
    Reminder that the US is responsible for the precision strike murder of at least 175 people including 150 school children[1] and Trump, Hegseth and the entire rest of that criminal administration are still not in prison without the possibility of parole.

    [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minab_school_attack

    • buckle80177 hours ago
      [flagged]
      • djb_hackernews7 hours ago
        err, this is an odd response given that this assessment has been thoroughly and repeatedly debunked every time it is offered up.
      • bradleyankrom7 hours ago
        1-for-3
      • dboreham7 hours ago
        There's a "converted military building" in Bozeman Montana. It's literally called "The Armory", a hotel now. So presumably Iranian operatives can blow it up, and any deaths/damage would be the fault of the US government for deliberately converting a military building for some other purpose?
      • exe347 hours ago
        It's impressive how the US intelligence agencies must have been gutted under Trump. I'm guessing if there were anybody competent left, this is the kind of thing they would have known.

        I can't imagine the level of secrecy it would take to hide something like this from a competent NRO - the amount of construction work, the little girls coming and going - what did they think, it was a military Epstein island?

        • buckle80176 hours ago
          They've hit about 8000 targets.

          One in 8000 is incredibly good for an actual conflict.

  • Jamesbeam5 hours ago
    Just leaving this here. Feel free to compare it to current reality.

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-N...

    "President Trump has cemented his legacy as The President of Peace."

    "Stopping regional conflicts before they spiral into global wars that drag down whole continents is worthy of the Commander-in-Chief’s attention, and a priority for this administration. A world on fire, where wars come to our shores, is bad for American interests."

    "The key to successful relations with the Middle East is accepting the region, its leaders, and its nations as they are while working together on areas of common interest."

    "America will always have core interests in ensuring that Gulf energy supplies do not fall into the hands of an outright enemy, that the Strait of Hormuz remain open, that the Red Sea remain navigable, that the region not be an incubator or exporter of terror against American interests or the American homeland, and that Israel remain secure."

    "But the days in which the Middle East dominated American foreign policy in both long-term planning and day-to-day execution are thankfully over—not because the Middle East no longer matters, but because it is no longer the constant irritant, and potential source of imminent catastrophe, that it once was. It is rather emerging as a place of partnership, friendship, and investment—a trend that should be welcomed and encouraged."

    Next time you look at the gas price when topping up your car think about this strategy was either hallucinated by your administration or AI.

    I am not sure what is worse.

  • DeathArrow6 hours ago
    They need them to murder more school children?