Oh, man... I can't wait to see where this is going. Might not be pretty after all.
It makes it hard to say what the valuation of a company is. If the milestones are unlikely to be hit, then it's anyone's guess.
Even VCs don't get all of their fund money delivered into their bank account when they raise a funding round. It's inefficient and undesirable for everyone involved to have to move all of the money up-front, at once.
If you talk to anyone in startup funding or finance they'll be familiar with the term "capital call" which describes how committed capital obligations are delivered at a later date than the initial deal: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_call
The whole concept of talking about "runway" is basically calculating how much cash in the bank, that is actually in your bank account, will last. And this arrangement is different, as there are contingencies. In the past, VCs would just give you money in a particular series, and then if your business did well, they'd eventually give you more money in a later series. But it wasn't like they announced it all up front in, say, a Series A, but a big chunk of the money would only be delivered if you met milestones.
This is perhaps because the most common round to raise is a small/early one, and these tend not to have hurdles. Founders that only ever raised these rounds wouldn't necessarily know what happens in later/bigger rounds.
Also, I wonder if capital calls come with hurdles as well? That is, can an LP refuse to put in more money if the VC's recent investments have not done well? I would think not, since it typically takes many years to determine whether investments were good or not.
Such a funding structure here isn't all that different: the funding agreement gives OpenAI the right to call on their backers to make certain cash deposits, contingent upon milestones being met. Deep down inside, "money in the bank" doesn't actually exist, it's just mutual agreements backed by force of law.
The milestones aren’t a hard-stop that forbids the previous funding round participants from providing the money if they still choose. It’s just an out.
You're also ignoring that the market changes frequently. If you only raised as much money as you needed for the next 4-6 months with plans to re-raise all the time, you'd have to constantly be sizing your growth plans up or down based on how the market felt about startup investing that month.
Imagine the company having to either do speed hiring or large layoffs every few months to adjust to the size of the fundraising round they were able to get this time around.
Nothing about what you're suggesting would be easier, or easy at all
This is a common structure for large investments. It would be really inefficient for all of these investors and companies to have to have the money sitting in cash to do a deal and then transfer it into the company's bank where it sits and earns interest for years until they can deploy it.
Even VC firms who raise funds work this way. The capital is "committed" but investors don't wire all of the money over right away so it can sit in the VC firm's bank accounts, waiting. The VCs do what's called a "capital call" through which they're legally bound to provide the money they committed when requested, under the terms of the deal.
Also a lot of this "money" is in cloud compute and credits not cash so...
https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/27/why-softbanks-new-40b-loan...
January 26, 2024 - "Japanese investment holding firm SoftBank Group Corp has largely cleared its ownership in e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding, concluding one of the most successful deals in China's internet industry and a holding that spanned about 23 years."
"SoftBank, which invested US$20 million into Alibaba when it was still a start-up in 2000, said in a corporate filing on Thursday that it was set to book a gain of 1.26 trillion yen (US$8.5 billion) - about 425 times the value of its initial outlay - for the Tokyo-based firm's 2024 financial year after divesting its [remaining] shares via subsidiary Skybridge."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/japans-softbank-concludes-run...
I get that people are scared of investing in China. But if I still made single stock investments, I would seriously consider BABA, it seems well positioned.
Michael Burry called out this structural manipulation play recently:
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/03/51248353/michael...
Anthropic had $19b by end of February 2026 and they added $6b in February alone.[1] This means if they added another $6b in March, they're higher than OpenAI already.
However, I heard that OpenAI and Anthropic report revenue in a different way. OpenAI takes 20% of revenue from Azure sales and reports revenue on that 20%. Anthropic reports all revenue, including AWS's share.[2]
[0]https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-cfo-says-annualized-...
[1]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anthropic-arr-surges-19-billi...
Both will do public reporting only when they IPO[4] and have regulatory requirement to do so every quarter. For private companies[1] reporting to investors there are no fixed rules really[3]
Even for public companies, there is fair amount of leeway on how GAAP[2]expects recognize revenue. The two ways you highlight is how you account for GMV- Gross Merchandise Value.
The operating margin becomes very less so multiples on absolute revenue gets impacted when you consider GMV as revenue.
For example if you consider GMV in revenue then AMZN only trades at ~3x ($2.25T/$~800B )to say MSFT($2.75T/$300B) and GOOG ($3.4T/$400B) who both trade at 9x their revenue.
While roughly similar in maturity, size, growth potential and even large overlap of directly competing businesses, there is huge (3x / 9x) difference because AMZN's number includes with GMV in retail that GOOG and MSFT do not have in same size in theirs.
---
[1] There are still a lot of rules reporting to IRS and other government entities, but that information we (and news media) get is from investors not leaks from government reporting - which would be typically be private and illegal to disclose to public.
[2] And the Big 4 who sign off on the audit for companies prefer to account for it.
[3] As long as it is not explicit fraud or cooking the books, i.e. they are transparent about their methods.
[4] Strictly this would be covered in the prospectus(S-1) few weeks before going public and that is first real look we get into the details.
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/03/51248353/michael...
More likely than not, most of us are already holding stock in these companies one way or another. All the Mag 7 hold a major chunk of OAI and Anthropic stock anyway, slower entry does not make it less risky for us.
Even if the big tech companies did not hold any stock, they are still the biggest vendors and their own order books is hugely impacted by the AI demand from these two ( and others in this space), either way we are all in this together.
They aren't reporting anything yet. What we hearing is just from news media who get their leaks/info from investors who get some form of IR reports/ presentation.
The $19b ARR and $6b added in Feb came directly from Anthropic CEO recently.
When we say reporting it means there are statutory submissions with an auditor signing off, with legal liability. As the other reply referenced consequences for doing this incorrectly can be severe - Arthur Anderson is no more after all because of Enron.
A Press Release (of a private entity) does not have to satisfy this high bar.
Press release does mean no constraints, for public companies, disclosure of important information by officers and other insiders have strong controls. Even if its the just a rocket/poop emoji on a casual social media platform. Lawyers have to refile with the SEC in the expected format. Even private companies have restrictions on not claiming things fraudulently to investors, but these are accredited investors with lesser controls than retail.
The numbers OpenAI gave in the post would mean a 30x multiple pre-money. And the $20B -> $24B run-rate growth since the start of the year could plausibly mean anything from 110% to 200% annualized growth rate, depending on whether that happened over two or three months. The $24B is a lower bound as well, since they only gave use one significant digit for the monthly revenue.
E.g. what good is 20 billion per year when "OpenAI is targeting roughly $600 billion in total compute spending through 2030". That is $150 billion per year?
Why are we saying that OpenAI and Anthropic can't do the same?
Openai can't claim either.
Uber was only on a path to monopoly in the US, not world wide. It’s lost to local competitors in most countries. And it can get disrupted by self driving cars soon.
OpenAI’s SOTA LLM training smells like a natural monopoly or duopoly to me. The cost to train the smartest models keep increasing. Most competitors will bow out as they do not have the revenue to keep competing. You can already see this with a few labs looking for a niche instead of competing head on with Anthropic and OpenAI.
Distilling might only be effective in the chat bot dominant era. We are about to move to an agents era.
Furthermore, I’m guessing distilling will get harder and harder. Claude Code leak shows some primitive anti distilling methods already. There’s research showing that models know when it’s being benchmarked. Who’s to say Anthropic and OpenAI aren’t able to detect when their models are being distilled?
Assets are harder to measure. Facebook used to say something silly like every user was worth $100. That sounded ridiculous for a completely free app but over a decade later, the company is worth more than that. Revenue is an easier way of measuring assets than profit.
Profit doesn't really matter. It gets taxed. But it's not about dodging taxes; it's because sitting on a pile of money is inefficient. They can hire people. They can buy hardware. They can give discounts to users with high CLTV. They can acquire instead of building. It's healthy to have profit close to $0, if not slightly negative. If revenues fall or costs increase, they can make up for the difference by just firing people or cutting unprofitable projects.
Also when they're raising money, it makes absolutely no sense to be profitable. If they were profitable, why would they raise money? Just use the profits.
Since everyone is trying to get compute from anywhere they can, including OpenAI going to Google, it's hard to tell what is used internally vs externally.
For example, it's entirely possible that Google's internal roadmap for Gemini sees it using $600b of compute through 2030 as well. In that case, OpenAI needs to match since compute is revenue.
the expectation is that they'll eventually make money. they can't raise forever. only startups are not profitable for a few years. but most companies that have existed for a long while have been profitable
and since they're expected to make a LOT of money, everyone wants a piece of that future pie, pushing up the valuation and amount raised to admittedly somewhat delusional levels like here
In this case because it's not clear that anybody has actually figured out how to sell inference for more than it costs
Whether GPT-5 was profitable to run depends on which profit margin you’re talking about. If we subtract the cost of compute from revenue to calculate the gross margin (on an accounting basis),2 it seems to be about 30% — lower than the norm for software companies (where 60-80% is typical) but still higher than many industries.
(They go on to point out that there are other costs that might mean they didn't break even on other costs - although I suspect these costs should be partially amortized over the whole GPT 5.x series, not just 5.0)
https://epochai.substack.com/p/can-ai-companies-become-profi...
https://martinalderson.com/posts/are-openai-and-anthropic-re... (with math working backwards from GPU capacity)
"Most of what we're building out at this point is the inference [...] We're profitable on inference. If we didn't pay for training, we'd be a very profitable company"
https://simonwillison.net/2025/Aug/17/sam-altman/
"There’s a bright spot, however. OpenAI has gotten more efficient at serving paying users: Its compute margin—the revenue left after subtracting the cost of running AI models for those customers—was roughly 70% in October, an increase from about 52% at the end of last year and roughly 35% in January 2024."
https://archive.is/OqIny#selection-1279.0-1279.305 (Note this is after having to pay higher spot rates for compute because of higher than expected demand)
That is not, in fact, "well known", but based entirely on the announcements of the inference providers themselves who also get very cagey when asked to show their work and at least look like they're soliciting a constant firehose of investment money simply to keep the lights on. In particular there's a troubling tendency to call revenue "recurring" before it actually, you know, recurs.
profit isn't a function of having a killer product, it's a function of having no competition
Industries always consolidate and winners emerge. SOTA LLMs look like a natural monopoly or duopoly to me because the cost to train the next model keeps going up such that it won't make sense for 20 competitors to compete at the very high end.
TSMC is a perfect example of this. Fab costs double every 4 years (Rock’s Law). It's almost impossible to compete against TSMC because no one has the customer base to generate enough revenue to build the next generation of fabs - except those who are propped up by governments such as Intel and Rapidus. Samsung is basically the SK government.
I don’t see how companies can catch OpenAI or Anthropic without the strong revenue growth.
no, most industries just sell boring generic products, a few industries favor monopolists. Semiconductors are one of them but LLMs are also as far removed from that business as is physically possible.
TSMC makes the most complicated machines humans have ever built, a LLM requires a few dozen nerds, a power plant, a few thousand lines of python and chips. That's why if you're Elon Musk you could buy all of the above and train yourself an LLM in a month.
LLMs are comically simple pieces of software, they're just big. But anyone with a billion dollars can have one, they're all going to be commoditized and free in due time, like search. Copying a lithography machine is difficult, copying software is easy. that's why Google burrowed itself into email, and browsers, and your phone's OS. Problem for openai is they don't have any of that, there's already half a dozen companies that, for 99% of people, do what they do.
Profit is money you couldn’t figure out how to spend. During growth, you want positive operating margins with nominal profits. When the company/market matures, you want pure profits because shareholders like money. If you can find a way to invest those profits in new areas of growth, that’s better.
Everyone wants to treat OpenAI like a car wash business where they need to make a profit almost immediately. I don’t know why people can’t understand that the industry is in a rapid growth stage and investing the money is more important than making a profit now. The profits will come later.
Profit is money you can't find a use for to grow your business, so you give some of it to the government in the form of tax.
Also there is a big difference between operational expenses and capital expenses like building data centers.
I think OpenAI is being very aggressive on the growth vs conservative financial management spectrum but just saying "only profit should matter" is just wrong.
A couple things that stand out to me about this is the use of the phrase "committed capital", which only sounds like a promise that could break from various circumstances, and the valuation of their funding keeps changing so it sounds like a max rather than the valuation every investor invested at.
You're Amazon. You give OpenAI $50B cash investment, they then hand you back the $50B over time because they buy $50B worth of Amazon AWS services (they would use AWS or other equivalent compute anyway). OpenAI pays an additional $1-5B in sales taxes on top of their $50B compute purchase. Now let's say you have $25B opex for said compute. You then have $25B profits, you pay 21% corporate taxes on the profits, so you too owe the government about $5B. Government collects around $6-10B on this whole transaction.
Situation B:
You're Amazon. You let OpenAI use your services by handing them API credentials that unlock what would normally cost $50B worth of services, but no money changes hands. You have zero revenue from the transaction, write off the $25B opex as a tax loss on your other profits elsewhere in the company. You thus pay ~$5B less tax on your other income as a company, and OpenAI also doesn't have to pay sales tax because they didn't actually purchase anything.
This is done even in smaller startup funding rounds some times.
At least they're throwing consumers a bone via the ARK deal. It's crazy how little AI exposure is available to anyone who isn't already wealthy and/or connected.
This is the main reason we see this insane investment into AI imo. If you imagine having lots of money, where should you invest that currently?
Housing market: Seems very overvalued (at least in germany). Also with the current uncertainty and inflation its hard to make an investment that pays back over 20-30 years. So building is also difficult.
Stocks are very volatile currently. Not only since Iran. To me it seems since the financial crisis 2008 investors don't enjoy stocks as before.
Gold: Only if you are paranoid about collapse of society. It doesn't make sense to invest into s.th. without interest rates.
Crypto: Same as gold, but better if you like gamling. I would assume most people who are very rich don't gamble with most of their fortune.
Chip production, too, of course, but it's overflowing with money already, apparently. It's growing though, because there are real actual shortages of stuff like RAM and SSDs, there's money to be made immediately if you can. Chinese RAM manufacturers are building out like crazy.
[1]: https://www.ultimamarkets.com/academy/anduril-stock-price-ho...
[2]: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/RHEINMETALL-AG-43...
Only viable if you’re okay with the ethical implications of funding war.
This is, sadly, not theoretical, and I'm afraid we'll soon see more of such choices, not fewer.
Anduril is the only company in this sector in the US that has any promise and they aren't even public. Most of us are not going to get our hands on this.
Traditional defense sector looks more like Jeep, or Kodak...
These returns do not qualify as “enjoying stocks”?
https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profi...
The returns are higher than before 2008, the previous 15 years are unprecedented.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-re...
Maybe in Europe. The US stock market has nearly tripled since then. Literally the best period of stock growth in history.
https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/stock-market-cr...
It has to be brutal out there for everybody else, if all the money is going to AI.
> At least they're throwing consumers a bone via the ARK deal.
https://www.ark-funds.com/funds/arkvx
The fund is invested in most of the hot tech companies.
It is deliberate. Period.
It's always been known that you make money in the private markets and pre-IPO companies and retail is the final exit for insiders and early investors.
Retail is not allowed to be early into these companies (Because that would ruin the point of being an insider) and this "exposure" has to be at the near top.
Also, aren't AI businesses losing a lot of money each year? Pretty sure there is some risk involved that is not good for retail.
They mention this line in different forms a couple of times in the article. It’s clear they’re pretty rattled about Anthropic’s momentum in enterprise, I wonder how confident they really are in this rationale.
"Our goal is to advance digital intelligence in the way that is most likely to benefit humanity as a whole, unconstrained by a need to generate financial return."
- Not advancing digital intelligence
- While locking people into a superapp
- Because they are further constrained to generating financial returnsEdit: Why did this go from their press release to a news story?
iykyk
The valuation seems odd though, you'd expect $840B post-money from that earlier round?
"The round totaled $122 billion of committed capital, up from the $110 billion figure that the company announced in February. SoftBank co-led the round alongside other investors, including Andreessen Horowitz and D. E. Shaw Ventures, OpenAI said."
This IPO, if anyone underwrites it, is going to fleece retail so hard. Better make it a SPAC with the help of Chamath and Cantor & Fitzgerald.
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The only way they can manage this type of monetization is a lot of compute to process outputs.
They have pieces from paper of folks saying they may put up funds or goods and services in that amount. But it’s important to remember that:
1. While they are “raising” commitments others are backing out of deals (see Disney, various data center things). Big deals announced to major fanfare are falling through.
2. They slashed capital expenditure for the future after previously boasting about all the commitments. This is turning into bonkers math of X + Y - X + Z + W - 1/2 of Y = ? On trying to keep track of what’s actually “raised / real” vs what was PR puffery that folks ran away from later.
3. Circular financing still seems to be going on. Big difference of here’s cash, have fun and various “commitments” and balance sheet games that seem to still be going on.
Net net this all still looks very scary and iffy at best.
Edit: A raise comes with stipulations on what you can use the money for. I don't know if I was being too mean about responding to a parent but before you comment just google what a raise has..
https://thedeepdive.ca/openai-locked-up-40-of-global-ram-wit...
I am from a generation that still sits behind a desktop computer when making "big purchases." I can't even buy a flight on my phone. I am so much less likely to want to have an AI agent do that for me.
Then the idea that daily consumption of these products will drive people to use them more at work... I have a very different life outside of work. My use of AI outside of work is exceedingly different to what I use it for at work.
I sometimes feel wildly out of touch. But sometimes I view this as the VR moment. To me there are some things that I think may always be preferable to do outside of that ecosystem. And for me, a lot of tasks that 'agents' enable are small enough or important enough that I want to do them myself.
I don't think I'll ever be comfortable allowing an agent to call me a taxi, or order food on my behalf. Because the convenience of asking for food isn't worth the chance it'll mess up, and opening an app and looking at a menu is simpler.
I also think we're coming to a moment where we can start identifying the markers of AI generated content on sight. And I think there's a growing animosity to it. I might be comfortable asking AI something, but when I am looking for or searching for other content, seeing AI content markers make me angry at this point.
To finish, I do just sort of straight up hate the idea that we're comparing this moment to the invention of electricity. It's on the face of it absurd.
Admittedly openAI is in a better position to do it, but not by much.
Everyone wants to be WeChat in china. No user wants that from them.
Do you feel that any technology is comparable in it’s impact?
AI isn’t there yet. You could turn off AI tomorrow and there’d be a shock but people would quickly switch back. You could not do the same for electricity, medicine, combustion engines (or steam engines/turbines), computers, the internet, modern building materials, etc. You try to swap back off any of those and the modern world (literally and figuratively) collapses. Turn off AI, and there’d be a financial collapse but afterwards everything would return relatively easily to an earlier way of doing things (ye know, the way from just 4 years ago, and which is still 99% of how people do things :) )
There are loads of technologies that, despite being decades old, do not qualify. So, no, it’s not “primarily a function of time”. It absolutely is about the utility. We can only be in a position to judge utility when sufficient time has passed, and AI ain’t had enough time yet to prove its utility. Given enough time, it might prove as useful as electricity, or it might just sit alongside computer operating systems - never quite making it onto anyone’s “this changed the world” list, even if it has as much utility as an OS.
It doesn't have to be AI all the way - no one's asking AI to book things on its own and make the payments on their own. What does work is, make AI do the research and you verify and you do the payment. Human in the loop.
To me this is clearly the future - AI has access to all the data sources and can translate your intent by accessing these tools in a loop and use intelligence to automate things.
I see a flight that isn't in my time frame, but is actually like 400 euros cheaper. And I decide in that moment that waking up at 5am is worth the savings.
I'd have not typed that into a prompt. I made that decision at the moment I saw the possibility. I didn't even know that it was an option prior to that moment.
Then I go look at hotels. I have a list of requirements, but I see that one of the hotels that I just glanced at has a really nice long pool, and the amenities look nicer from the images. I change my mind at that exact moment, I can walk 15 minutes more to the beach.
Now it should be even clearer why this is important for food.
The exchanges are bending head over heels to accommodate these IPOs[1] and make our retirement index funds the exit-liquidity strategy to the thievery of pump and dump actors that buy it low and then sell high? As i understand the way thievery works is:
1. List at many multiples of market valuation on an exchange. So if you company is just 10 billion$ nasdaq and theives collude and say "can make it 100 billion..".
2. Lots of institutional investors and rich billionaires get stock options.
3. All market weighted index funds — aka all *your* low expense ratio ETF money — have to re-balance and buy them, raising their value: the exit-liquidity event
4. Rich A**** get richer by making an profit by selling higher.
[1] https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/03/31/index-providers...
Which to me seems like a very naked attempt at getting 401k to bag hold
But I suspect that’ll u-turn hard when the economy implodes
I ship code every day. I use Claude, I use GPT, I run llama locally. The gap between frontier models and what fits on a 4090 shrinks every six months. Building a "super app" in response isn't vision — it's panic. You don't consolidate into an everything-app when you're winning. You do it when your core product is commoditizing and you need to lock people in before they notice.
Also love the electricity comparison. Electricity doesn't hallucinate, doesn't need $300B in cumulative funding to turn on the lights, and never told me a function exists that doesn't.
Hope it works out. Competition is good. But "flywheel" is just VC for "trust me bro."
Ironic, isn’t it?
> I ship code every day. I use Claude, I use GPT, I run llama locally.
I am very much onboard with AI within my workflow. I just don't really see a future where openai/anthropic are the absolute front runners for devs though. Maybe OpenAI does just have the better vision by targeting the general public instead, and just competing to become the next google before google can just stay google?
What is their next step to ensure local models never overtake them? If i could use opus 4.6 as a local model isntead and wrap it in someone else's cli tool, i 100% do it today. are the future model's gonna be so far beyond in capability that this sounds foolish? the top models are more than enough to keep up with my own features before i can think of more... so how do they stretch further than that?
A side note i keep thinking about, how impossible is a world where open source base models are collectively trained similar to a proof of work style pool, and then smaller companies simply spin off their own finishing touches or whatever based on that base model? am i thinking of thinks too simplistically? is this not a possibility?
Current multi-GPU training setups assume much higher bandwidth (and lower latency) between the GPUs than you can get with an internet connection. Even cross-datacenter training isn't really practical.
LLM training isn't embarrassingly parallel, not like crypto mining is for example. It's not like you can just add more nodes to the mix and magically get speedups. You can get a lot out of parallelism, certainly, but it's not as straightforward and requires work to fully utilize.
Best they can do is to somewhat reliably react to objective signals that they've failed at something (like test failures).
As someone who experiments with local models a lot, I don’t see this as a threat. Running LLMs on big server hardware will always be faster and higher quality than what we can fit on our laptops.
Even in the future when there are open weight models that I can run on my laptop that match today’s Opus, I would still be using a hosted variant for most work because it will be faster, higher quality, and not make my laptop or GPU turn into a furnace every time I run a query.
MacBook Pro laptops are preferred over "gaming" laptops for LLM use because they have large unified memory with high bandwidth. No gaming laptop can give you as much high-bandwidth LLM memory as a MacBook Pro or an AMD Strix Halo integrated system. The discrete gaming GPUs are optimized for gaming with relatively smaller VRAM.
The market for local models is always gonna be a small niche, primarily for the paranoid.
Have you ever heard of industrial espionage? Pr privacy regulations? Or military applications?
(Also the US military runs claude as a local model)
I do not, I self host. My current client is also got rid from AWS packing up nice savings as a result
So, the real question here is: Is OpenAI Netscape, or are they Google?
It seems like its just consumer name recognition at the moment
What I want to know is are we in 1994 of the AI bubble or 1999?
Because even after the dotcom bubble popped, it was still much better than it was in 1994.
But notice that no-one, not a single mention of Deepseek tells me that they are preparing to scare everyone again. Which is why Dario continues to scare-monger on local models.
Sometimes you do not need hundreds of billions of dollars for inference when it can be done locally with efficient software; and Google proved that. But where is the money in that? So continues the flawed belief in infinitely buying GPUs to scale which Nvidia needs you to do.
Only a matter of time for local models to reach Opus level. We are 1 or at most 2 years behind that and Anthropic knows that.
Can confirm. Kimi K2.5 is pretty intelligent and most of the time there's no difference between Opus and Kimi.
Not gonna lie, I hate those announcements lately. It's full bullshit mode, worse than the Dot-com bubble. Numbers don't make any sense, any more, and yet journalist don't ask any real questions...
If anything there's a plateau between each model release.
Yesterday I asked claude to fix the color issues of graph. It failed miserably. Opus 4.6 wasn’t able to figure out why the text was grey. It made something up, instead of realizing the problem was simple, oklch wrapped inside a hsl color. hsl(oklch(…)) I easily figured this out by just looking at the css and adding some logs to js.
This is not intelligence. This is a tool that’s smart. Not sentient. AGI won’t be achieved by scaling alone.
> The OpenAI flywheel is simple. More compute drives more intelligent models. More intelligent models drive better products. Better products drive faster adoption, more revenue and more cashflow.
FTX had a "flywheel". It fell off. Being saddled with hundreds of billions of debt makes this situation ten times worse.
Last announcement I reckon pre-IPO and the inevitable collapse.
Their latest desperate bid for relevance is a plugin for Claude Code that uses Codex as a second opinion. Please clap.
I cannot really see how they are "far behind," or how some plugin for Claude Code is a "last desperate bid." The tools are close enough to each other that I regularly use Codex one month and Claude Code the next without much disruption, just to try out any new models or features that might be available.
I do not have much visibility into the non-code applications, so maybe it is stickier there.
If/when the AI bubble pops and takes OpenAI down with it, I would not expect Anthropic to come out unscathed either.
Doesn't really strike me as the kind of statement that comes out of a company that can sustain a ~$1T market cap...
I wonder what the bet is here, long term that valuation is going to have to go up even further for this investment to make sense so they're clearly betting that at IPO time they'll be able to convincingly demonstrate AGI or something extremely close to it. That's a pretty risky bet, and meanwhile, whatever they come up with will be a commodity within a year. And that's besides OpenAI no longer being seen as the dominant player or the player with the best edge.
-x-
In short, the musical chairs are still playing... Keep on walkin' round, y'all, till the music stops.
/s
I am so sick of AI writing.
What??
It's going to be pretty hard to get a good answer to whatever you're having difficulties understanding if you can't be bothered to write more than a word.
They raised $122B.
122 / 12*2 = 5 years to get your money back (I simplify, I know revenue <> profit)
They are so big that almost no one can afford to acquire them. It is similar as someone would like to acquire MSFT or AAPL.
WCGW?