Caffeine -> Dementia
However, the two variables would be correlated if the causal arrow were reversed and dementia influenced the propensity to consume caffeine:
Caffeine <- Dementia
And we would also observe the correlation if a person's general health influenced both the propensity to consume caffeine and dementia risk:
Caffeine <- General Health -> Dementia
Since caffeine is a stressor, we would expect to see reduced consumption among people with reduced general health. But we would also expect increased dementia among that same group. So the relationships in the diagram immediately above are plausible and would give rise to a spurious correlation between caffeine consumption and dementia risk.
While studies can try to “control for confounding factors,” it’s easy to overlook or misunderstand the true causal relationships in play, causing spurious correlations. In other words, you can create false “causal” relationships through imperfect identification and control of confounding variables.
In short, take this article’s claims with a suitable dose of suspicion.
(1) https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/28447...
”After adjusting for potential confounders and pooling results across cohorts, higher caffeinated coffee intake was significantly associated with lower dementia risk (141 vs 330 cases per 100 000 person-years comparing the fourth [highest] quartile of consumption with the first [lowest] quartile; hazard ratio, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.76 to 0.89]) and lower prevalence of subjective cognitive decline (7.8% vs 9.5%, respectively; prevalence ratio, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.78 to 0.93]).”
So about 18% relative reduction. But if your risks are already low (e.g. active and healthy diet) the relative reduction is less impactful (e.g. 4% to 3.28%).
That's also an 18% reduction
Log probabilities (like decibans) unify this to say there is a -0.86 dB risk reduction for everybody.
https://rationalnumbers.james-kay.com/?p=306
It makes the math of combining risks easier and works the same even if we're operating near 99.999% or 0.0001%
If someone is high risk, say 20%, then an 18% drop from that is 14.4%. That may justify picking up caffeine.
But if you’re otherwise healthy, picking up caffeine has diminishing returns, and the downsides may not be worth it.
(they too can get quite tasty in the oven though)
Caffeine has been shown to exert effects via adenosine receptor antagonism and influence on cAMP & AMPK pathways. These same pathways are implicated in a lot of issues with aging. Caffeine also has some anti-inflammatory properties and Coffee beans are a strong anti-oxidant though I don't really think that matters much.
That is like saying biological pathways are implicated in aging (because you said "pathways").
In any case, adenosine receptor antagonism has a pretty weak link if any to aging.
Additionally, we say that about virtually everything that is herbal, that it has anti-inflammatory properties. You are right, it does not matter at all.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_experiment?wprov=sfla1
Reliance on occum’s razor would probably be less needed if this was a random control trial, but still the study would be correlative with alternative explanations still plausible.
Regarding health, focus on calorie control and getting enough fats/carbs/protein. Eat whole foods that are high enough on the satiety index because they make calorie maintenance more intuitive so you don’t have to count calories if you don’t want to. Those (and maybe a few other tips) are the only things that have a large enough effect for one to determine with almost (only almost, because everything empirical is a confidence interval/correlation) certainty that they’re effective.
Any study saying that blueberries are “superfoods” or any other hyper-specific food recommendation, I immediately don’t trust it. There just isn’t any organization that would fund a RTC of such a niche finding, especially considering you would need to pay and surveil thousands of people over the course of their whole life to change their diet and stick to it. I don’t think even the NIH is giving out millions of dollars to a research team to find out if blueberries are superfoods.
- caffeine is the main mechanism it uses to deter pests like insects, definitely not removed in the roasting and brewing process
- like many fruits, they're sweet and nutritious, encouraging larger animals to eat it
- the stuff marketed as dietary antioxidants still hasn't been shown to improve anything
what are you talking about
"Consumption of coffee and tea and the risk of developing neurodegenerative diseases: a cohort study in the UK biobank"
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12937-026-01291-0
Conclusions
"Excessive coffee consumption was significantly associated with an increased risk of all-cause neurodegenerative diseases and vascular neurodegenerative diseases. The results also showed that tea intake was associated with a reduced risk of all-cause neurodegenerative disease, vascular neurodegenerative disease, other neurodegenerative diseases, and VD. Moreover, coffee and tea had an interactive relationship with all-cause neurodegenerative diseases and AD, with specific combinations significantly associated with reduced risk of disease" onset.
> decaffeinated coffee intake was not associated with lower dementia risk or better cognitive performance