Kalshi faces criminal charges in Arizona in prediction markets fight(www.axios.com)

8 pointsby 1vuio0pswjnm78 hours ago2 comments

sharp_runner_843 hours ago
the arizona AG is making the same argument ohio did — that event contracts on sports outcomes are functionally sports bets, regardless of what the CFTC says. but the interesting wrinkle here is criminal charges, not just a civil ruling. that's a major escalation. if other states follow with criminal enforcement rather than civil, it doesn't matter if kalshi wins the federal regulatory argument — no one's going to trade on a platform where their state AG might charge them as a customer
techblueberry8 hours ago
Why are these called prediction markets and not political / current evenets gambling?
- JoshTriplett7 hours ago
  Because the purpose of them is to accurately predict events. People often get better at accurately modeling reality when money is on the line. Prediction markets are designed around the idea that you can best make money if your predictions match reality, so if you bet something that doesn't match reality, people have a direct financial incentive to model reality better and take your money. Some people are absurdly good at it. The net result, in theory, is a financial incentive to get accurate answers about the world.
  "Partisan Bias in Factual Beliefs about Politics," Quarterly Journal of Political Science 10(4), 2015.
  "You Cannot be Serious: The Impact of Accuracy Incentives on Partisan Bias in Reports of Economic Perceptions", https://ideas.repec.org/a/now/jlqjps/100.00014127.html
  - techblueberry23 minutes ago
    So, we should call sports betting sports prediction markets?
    Should we call roulette a wheel prediction market?
    Like why does Kalshi need this information? Or are they just in fact trying to make money?