I don’t think the prediction from two years ago is fully wrong. The wins will be for those with distribution and capital. And unfortunately that means every startup that isn’t Anthropic or OpenAI will lose as those platforms just replicate the best ideas from the other startups. Besides that - Microsoft may be stumbling but I have a feeling Google and Apple will ultimately get most of the wins of this era too.
We need fairer competition. That means laws and regulations that break down moats, tax wealth, tax capital, etc.