Not anytime soon. The big leaps in LLMs don't really carry over to robotics much, aside from some computer vision stuff. I'd say we're still 10+ years out from robots cooking for you. Maybe we'll get some kind of dedicated 'cooking machines' if there's money in it, but not humanoid cooks walking around your kitchen. And even that's being pretty optimistic because right now there's no clear way to get there, and we'd need some real fundamental breakthroughs to make it happen.

One big difference between LLM progress and robotics is that language models benefited from purely digital feedback loops — training, testing, and scaling could all happen in simulation.

Robotics still pays a heavy “reality tax”. Every improvement eventually has to survive messy, unstructured physical environments where sensing, actuation, and safety interact in unpredictable ways.

My guess is we’ll see a ChatGPT-like moment first in semi-structured environments (warehouses, logistics, industrial assistance) rather than homes.

A general household robot feels closer to a GPT-4 equivalent problem than a GPT-3.5 one because reliability matters much more when failure affects the physical world.

"the funding all these startups are getting should allow them to scale their methods 10x-100x.." .. "Therefore, we might soon see a ChatGPT moment in robotics" -- I don't think so and no, the second statement is NOT entailed by the first. Why would it? Because 100 is a big number? Do you have any idea how much more data LLM needed to be trained for a GPT3 level compared to the data available for robot training right now, and how low dimensional the space is in which LLMs operate compared to robots?

"My intuition is there's 40% chance we will see it this year" -- again, why? Don't you realize that people have been working in robotics for 65 years, and these people don't live under a rock either. They knew about GPT3 because 2023. So why is it NOW less then 10 month you think that this breakthrough will happen?

sounds unrealistic to me. For military and industrial use cases yes but I think we are at least 5 probably 10 and more years away from that moment. I think there is not enough data, and hardware is not software so the scaling will be more difficult and use cases are so wide that I can not imagine a humanoid cooking and mowing the lawn and repairing the roof. Look how long the autonomous driving takes and this is just moving a car.

The cost would have to be real low for a real ChatGPT moment