Author here. This paper extracts 9 falsifiable predictions from Lowery's Softwar framework (the MIT thesis arguing Bitcoin is a power projection technology) and tests them against empirical data.

Results: 5 confirmed, 4 falsified. The most interesting finding is that state adoption patterns follow financial innovation diffusion curves, not arms race dynamics - which is what you'd expect if Bitcoin were primarily a weapon system.

The paper uses IEEEtran format and cites Bohme (2015), Yermack (2015), Catalini (2020), and Biais (2019).

I'm an engineer from ITA (Brazilian Air Force Institute of Technology), applying to MIT SDM. Feedback welcome - the paper was designed to be falsifiable.