>bought “Yes” shares in the “U.S. strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?” market just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran and other cities.

If these sites were serious about their promise they would freeze betting so people have a reasonable window of time to change their behavior given new information. Otherwise insiders will wait too long, especially on bets like these where as the dates approach more people rationally vote no incentive's insiders to withhold as long as possible.

Or at least put this warning on every bet with this structure. Fallacious reasoning cannot produce value, you are just taking money from people reasoning poorly hence gambling