Ok but this is how the market is supposed to work. If the incumbents aren't doing what their customers want, then competitors can rise and fill the gap and compete.

This isn't a shortcoming, it's a competitive market working as intended.

CXMT sells the vast majority of their bits at the prevailing market rate, just like everyone else. They are adding capacity as quickly as they can, with a 5-10 year planning horizon, just like everyone else. It’s really not that deep!

It's not really a blunder though. Given that total capacity is tightly constrained, Samsung and SK Hynix are happy to focus on what they do at their best and with the highest margins. Why shouldn't they supply the HBM market?

There is really nothing about the stock market that means only thinking about the mext few quarters. See all the losses on the profit and loss statements of AI tech giants, or, say, game console companies? Why are their stocks still valued so highly during these periods? The answer: investors are thinking long term.

It is really impossible to have quality long term thinking without capitalization accounting and similar instruments that come out of the "wester" system of business that chinese free enterprise gladly and speedily copied when it was made free.

How's it dumping below cost when hey can simply sell for 100% margins instead of western makers selling for 400%.

> It is wise for these Chinese fabs to eventually use a very aggressive dumping strategy to price well below cost push out other players forever, especially in DRAM.

Crucial's departure from the consumer market left such a gaping hole, that CXMT doesn't even need to push other players out to gain a footing.

I personally fail to see the downside of any manufacturer selling forever at a loss, except for the manufacturer itself.

It's funny that you call this an "very aggressive dumping strategy" while AI vendors are doing the same but with even greater losses and on a much larger scale.

It's all simply a fight for market share.

The original sin is the existing DRAM vendors selling their entire (spare) capacity to the likes of OpenAI.

Chinese investment has not been unproductive. It gave them independence so that the US could not cut them of- see Cuba.

Yes. Let's do the math. The fastest sd cards can read at around 300 MB/s (https://havecamerawilltravel.com/fastest-sd-cards/). Modern GPUs use 16 lanes of PCIe gen 5, which is 16x32Gb/s = 512Gb/s = 64 GB/s. Meaning you'd need over 200 of the fastest SD cards. So what you're asking is: is there a reason GPUs don't use 200 SD cards? And I can't think of any way that would work

It might be very effective marketing. The big non-Chinese OEMs trust and use Korean and Japanese DRAM, and they might have been unwilling to put DRAM from CXMT into their products. (CXMT is newish, does not have access to ASML gear, which ASML would like you to believe makes it harder to make high-quality DRAM, DRAM is historically not a very large fraction of the cost of most non-huge-memory machines, and a bad DIMM is an expensive mistake for a company like Dell or HPE that is on the hook for repairs.)

But now CXMT seems to have gotten at least Dell, HP (I wonder if the article meant HPE), Acer and Asus to buy and attempt to qualify samples. If CXMT lands some serious purchasing agreements while still selling well above cost, that’s a win for them.

Does the last part of your comment explain it? They need revenue to expand capacity and the market has opened up a window to become a bigger supplier while still being profitable.

> add more channels

and unfortunately increase latency even more with registered DIMMs. Comparing bandwidth increase (50 GB/s) to the stagnated latency (~80..120 ns total, less than ~0.1 GB/s) over last decades, I'm wondering, whether one still can call today's RAM random memory (though sure it can be accessed randomly). Similar to hard disk drives. Up to 300 MB/s sequentially but only up to less than 1 MB/s 4KB random (read).

As far as I understand, the "entity list" you are referring to is part of the "Export Administration Regulations", so it restricts sales from the US to restricted entities, not the other way around.

> Good news. Now we need Chinese manufacturers of DDR4 chipsets and motherboards.

Search aliexpress for X99 dual socket motherboards.

Chipsets don't determine the RAM type and all motherboards have been made in China for a while.

It's not clear that raising your prices to match the supply/demand curve is a mistake

They will compete on price if they are forced to, but they aren't forced to right now

Everyone is completely sold out and adding capacity as quickly as possible.

Western European countries got dominant, then got arrogant, letting the USA eat their lunch.

USA got dominant, got arrogant, letting China eat their lunch.

China is indeed getting dominant. They will get arrogant one day. Meanwhile, Western Europe and the USA are still very good places to live.