These models almost all rely on the assumption of stationarity the idea that the future will look like the past. But between rapid urbanization and shifting climate patterns, the historical data we use to build these curves is basically obsolete. We're essentially trying to navigate a new map using a 1970s compass. It’s not just that the models are misunderstood; the underlying data points are shifting faster than the bureaucracy can update the maps.
exactly in the us fema maps are often a decade out of date by the time they're actually certified. we're building and underwriting for a version of the world that's already been paved over.