I feel like the models are already smart enough to be called something like an early version of AGI. It's the tooling around it that needs to improve.

For example, Codex/Claude should be able to code and "see" its changes. If it's developing a mobile app, it should be able to view the real app it's building and then make changes. If it's a website, it should see the changes being rendered and then make further changes if needed.

The tooling is well behind model intelligence.

DBs are a solved problem for most cases. APIs are a solved problem. UX patterns are a solved problem. Yet I solved problems related to these things every day.

Isn’t AGI described in contrast to specific intelligences? How can you have specific AGI?

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    it is now clear that software engineering is probably beyond its own AGI

Clear to who? Try engaging your brain instead of parroting marketing materials