AI: the US is headed for mass unemployment(thehill.com)
11 pointsby hackyhacky5 hours ago1 comment
  • anovikov4 hours ago
    I don't buy into alarmism at all.

    First of all it's not just the US but the entire world. Trick is, as always, simply not to do worse than others.

    As for tens of millions being unemployable... so what? What are the practical problems it creates? Crime? Highly unlikely. These people are older and more individualistic and serious property crime is a collective affair. Crime is low these days in general so even a considerable increase in it won't be some sort of unmanageable disaster, America has been there before.

    I can't think of much else in terms of problems it could create.

    Consumption and thus "keeping economy going" is currently maintained by people who make income from capital and it will only become more so. Employment as a tool of distributing money for consumption will simply become less relevant.

    For next generation, it will be easier because surely personal service will get revived as a mass occupation - and there, having a person is the whole point so it's safe from automation by definition.

    • verdverm4 hours ago
      Have you learned about the Great Depression?

      You need not look further to find your first "practical problems"

      • anovikov4 hours ago
        Great Depression is thoroughly unrelated. It was because of excess agricultural production by overleveraged farmers that forced them into further undermining themselves by overproduction, and eventual contagion of bad debt of those farmers propagating across the economy - made worse by unhinged, and unregulated, leveraged stock trading.

        It did not happen because of sudden productivity increase that put too many people out of work. No economic crises ever happened that way, and there is no reason to believe any will. This is what every economy strives to achieve and it's kinda stupid to be afraid of it. Some people can be hit hard, and it always happens during every technological revolution, but with sufficient investment into predictive policing and law enforcement overall, this is a manageable risk.

        Surely, a stock market shock can happen other way around - if AI will turn out to be a flop - but i believe this is not the risk you are talking about.

        • verdverm3 hours ago
          You're looking at causes, that's the wrong side. Your prior claim was about how you couldn't see the downsides of high unemployment.

          Look at what happened during the Great Depression, when unemployment was high. It doesn't matter how we get to high unemployment or depression status, but for sure there will be a lot of bad things, many more than you proclaim.

          Look to the Great Depression to see what the human condition and spirit was like if you are having trouble imagining possibilities

          • anovikov3 hours ago
            During the Great Depression there was also an economic collapse with deep decreases in production and consumption of just about everything - except useless production of what was already overproduced anyway. That could naturally make people depressed, strive for radical changes like Communism, etc.

            But we are speaking simply of mass unemployment. That alone is not enough to cause widespread despair.

            • verdverm3 hours ago
              Unemployment is one of the conditions

              I think a simple question, where do the unemployed eat and sleep during extended, high-unemployment?

              Are breadlines in 21st century America not a thing you foresee in a 21st century depression?

              • anovikov3 hours ago
                If there is a plenty of revenue, profits, and taxes paid by businesses - and if there won't be, there's nothing to talk about - it will mean there will be no AI productivity boost - why won't society find something for those people to do? Even if solution is as simple as "conscript men to the army and send them on conquest, and pay women to have children"? Older ones usually have enough investments so in conditions of economic boom => rapid stock appreciation, they will be OK.
              • benSaiyen2 hours ago
                President raped kids.

                Cops kill almost daily with immunity.

                Spouses across world abuse each other and their children.

                You rely on slave labor so you can perform useless IT work.

                But no one ever acts so uncivil as I have on HN.

                Oh look another ...old... account. That explains the Mr Rogers-like-view-of-reality.

                Thoughts and prayers.

                • verdverm12 minutes ago
                  > Oh look another ...new... account

                  How many accounts have you had? How many have been banned?

                  yes, I'm still on my original account I made when a college roommate told me I needed to be on HN

            • benSaiyen3 hours ago
              [flagged]
              • verdverm2 hours ago
                > ... is a sign of mental illness

                Your post is not the sign of someone who is healthy either, people don't say things like you just have.

                Nor is it the level of discourse HN finds acceptable

                • benSaiyen2 hours ago
                  President raped kids but in the real world people never act so vulgar as I have on HN?

                  HN is a bunch of ostriches

                  Thoughts and prayers!

    • bdangubic2 hours ago
      > Crime is low these days in general

      Crime is low where income is adequate, Crime is (very) high otherwise