We saw this before with Twitter/X - network effects are crazy, and so even if 30% of your users jump to another platform, that network effect is still going be grinding down that other platform, and in reality it's probably 0.003% of users. It's a true testament to network effects the continued (reduced) existence of Twitter. I see no reason why Tiktok - a bigger, more successful, less controversial, platform is going to suffer from this.
Twitter is dead. What signs of life remain are the scavangers that consume every carcase. TikTok will go the same way. Twitter is basically just moltbook at the moment. tiktok will become clawtok. It's inevitavle. The reason tiktok became such a hit was it lacked the bushit of meta. Now it has the bullshit of meta, it will simply lose users.