Failed to grasp what collapse data this article applies to. There is for sure a certain amount on individuals that will be able to sense structural changes if they happen to be in the right place at the right time and they have access to the right data and a set of mental models to do so. However there is a random factor at play for all the things that need to be right. There are no seers, only lucky seers.

A simpler framework with just as much explanatory power is just depression. If you spend a lot of time depressed you will "predict nine of the last five recessions" but with everything. You will have seen every bad event coming, along with a lot of bad events that didn't end up coming.

I have always been kind of hyper aware of <everything>. My wife and I only dated for 6 months before we got married in sept 2019 (second marriage for both of us, we knew what we each wanted). But I definitely felt a bit awkward telling her about what I thought was coming with covid in late dec 2019. She was a bit suspect at first but polite and just went along with it because we were newlyweds and she loved me and gave me the benefit of the doubt. Holy shit, most everything went how I said it was going to at least through June 2020. AFAICT, she's still convinced I'm from the future.