30 pointsby thomassmith659 hours ago2 comments
  • taylodl9 hours ago
    Trump also says he wants the Fed to lower interest rates. Someone needs to explain to Trump that he therefore actually cares about the decline of the US dollar.
  • SilverElfin9 hours ago
    I’ve been hearing this type of talk from dedicated pro Trump friends. I don’t quite understand their logic, but it is something like having the Dollar crash so the federal reserve goes away. But I don’t get what the goal is. If the Dollar crashes, America would permanently lose its unique position with being the controller of the global reserve currency. And the American citizens who hold US Dollars will be a lot poorer. I’m not even sure the recent shifts in USD have actually reflected the true risks of the national debt, so it could fall a lot more than where it is presently.

    Is there actually some strategy here? Or is it just that Trump doesn’t care because his family is getting so much richer that changes in the Dollar’s value don’t matter to them?

    • cosmicgadget3 hours ago
      The best explanation I have heard is that a weak dollar means the US exports more and when you're a super smart business man you try to sell more stuff.
    • amrikiio9 hours ago
      They may claim they are not concerned.

      But are they genuinely not concerned? They have a huge advantage to lie, or else it would become a self-fulfilling prophecy. People tend to lie.

    • Avshalom9 hours ago
      Trump doesn't care because he has no fucking idea how anything works (cf tariffs).
    • thomassmith659 hours ago
      I'm unfavorably inclined toward Trump and interpret it as "actually, I meant to do that"

      The charitable version is based on the fact that if your dollar falls then the things you export to other nations suddenly become cheaper for them. It's like natural tariffs: imports to the USA become unaffordable; exports from the USA become a bargain to other nations.

      • 8 hours ago
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      • JohnFen8 hours ago
        That "charitable version" is the same explanation Trump has been giving from through his first term as well. He's long been in favor of a weak dollar.
        • thomassmith655 hours ago
          Honest thanks for the context. That probably is his true preference.

          That said, he has also advocated the opposite. Here he is in 2018:

            “The dollar is going to get stronger and stronger, and ultimately I want to see a strong dollar,” Trump said in an exclusive interview from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
          
          http://cnbc.com/id/104968240
          • JohnFen4 hours ago
            I missed that! Thanks
    • vdupras9 hours ago
      Whatever Trump's strategy is, it's not for the benefit of the US, but of some group, the same one who got all the insider trading hints on this roller coaster.

      But today's USD decline? Brutal. It almost makes me want to say, "it's happening!".

      • thomassmith659 hours ago
        I fully believe many of Trump's tariff announcements were for the benefit of insiders.

        I don't know about this dollar plunge being intentional, though. This one feels more like a massive screw up caused by the administration convincing each other that Europe and the 'middle powers' are completely powerless.

      • toomuchtodo9 hours ago
        > But today's USD decline? Brutal. It almost makes me want to say, "it's happening!".

        I agree we're close, but we're not quite there yet. The bond market is punishing sovereign debt (Japan bond crisis), and there is evidence that billions of dollars of capital is willing to leave US treasuries to find something better. Gold and silver are up wildly; some may say overbought, but I think that only applies in the before times. This will, imho, continue as capital seeks venues of prudent economic management (which, arguably, the US, USD, and UST are no longer). The dollar lost 8% of its value last year, I expect that pace to continue, if not worsen.

        https://economics.td.com/us-the-united-states-dollar-in-2025

        (not investing advice, i am a rando)