46 pointsby tea_drinker10 hours ago18 comments
  • botacode9 hours ago
    To be fair here (and I say this as someone who's had a spinal fusion as the result of being mowed down by a distracted driver) car ownership is so incredibly subsidized from an insurance perspective that any increase in prices should be described as the removal/reduction of a subsidy.

    If the damages/externalities caused by cars were internalized by the system car ownership would already be unaffordable for most. We just choose to sacrifice/maim X-number of humans every year so folks can continue to zoom around and structurally increase sprawl/pollution (which in turn have their own massive un-internalized costs).

    All of us pay for these subsidies via significantly higher healthcare prices.

    Look up what happened to the Michigan laws/policies that required drivers to actually pay for insurance that would compensate accident victims for their death and suffering. It was lobbied/voted out of existence almost immediately because the costs are simply too high, and we love our cars.

    • austin-cheney9 hours ago
      That is neither true of healthcare or car ownership specifically. It’s the Pareto Rule. 20% of participants drive 80% of the costs. This is expanded across the population via averaging from insurance.

      Law describes this as the thin skull problem. If you accidentally tap someone that had a thin skull and their head explodes you are still guilty of manslaughter even though the action is both completely benign and unintentional. The extreme alternative is to eliminate high risk people until no risks remain in the system. Insurance is a nice balance in the middle, but that doesn’t mean ownership is otherwise unaffordable for most people.

    • ryanackley9 hours ago
      I'm confused by this comment because there is an entire industry (personal injury attorneys) dedicated to extracting every dollar possible from the insurance company when an accident happens.

      I've personally known at least five people who have been in a car accident and then received a windfall of cash after paying off their medical bills and having their car repaired/replaced.

      I don't know if this is still the case but years ago my friend, who was in a collision with a drunk driver, was told by his attorney that the insurance will just settle for 3x your total expenses (medical, car repairs, etc). He was being encouraged by his attorney to see chiropractors and specialists because of this.

  • n_u9 hours ago
    I think the author is significantly underestimating the technical difficulty of achieving full self-driving cars that are at least as safe and reliable as Waymo. The author claims there will be "26 of the basically identical [self-driving car] companies".

    If you recall, there was an explosion of self-driving car efforts from startups and incumbents alike 7ish years ago. Many of them failed to deliver or were shut down. [1][2][3]

    Article about the difficulty of self-driving from the perspective of a failed startup[3].

    Waymo came out of the Google-self driving car project which came from Sebastian Thrun's entry in 2005 Darpa challenge, so they've been working on this for more than 20 years. [4][5]

    [1] https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/26/business/ford-argo-ai-vw-shut...

    [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

    [3] https://medium.com/starsky-robotics-blog/the-end-of-starsky-...

    [4] https://stanford.edu/~cpiech/cs221/apps/driverlessCar.html

    [5] https://semiwiki.com/eda/synopsys/3322-sebastian-thrun-self-...

    • hasperdi9 hours ago
      He funded Comma.ai, so he does understand the problem domain & complexity.
      • n_u9 hours ago
        As I understand, Comma.ai is focused on driver-assistance and not fully autonomous self-driving.

        The features listed on the wikipedia are lane-centering, cruise-control, driver monitoring, and assisted lane change.[1]

        The article I linked to from Starsky addresses how the first 90% is much easier than the last 10% and even cites "The S-Curve here is why Comma.ai, with 5–15 engineers, sees performance not wholly different than Tesla’s 100+ person autonomy team."

        To give an example of the difficulty of the last 10%: I saw an engineer from Waymo give a talk about how they had a whole team dedicated to detecting emergency vehicle sirens and acting appropriately. Both false positives and false negatives could be catastrophic so they didn't have a lot of margin for error.

        [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Openpilot#Features

    • rvz9 hours ago
      But that is the author's point. I don't see many of the same alternatives years later.

      They have either shut down, got acquired or were sold off and then shutdown. Even Uber and Lyft had their own self-driving programs and both of them shut theirs down. Cruise was recently taken off the streets and not much has been done with them.

      The only ones that have been around from more than 7 years are Comma.ai (which the author geohot still owns), Waymo and Tesla and Zoox, but they ran out of money and is now owned by Amazon.

  • ic_fly29 hours ago
    Generally not a fan of geohot, but this is pretty possible, especially once self driving tech becomes available through suppliers like mobile eye / Bosch/ continental etc. (it’s possible it will stay a Tesla / Waymo duopoly but I doubt it)
    • ddalex6 hours ago
      > it will stay a Tesla / Waymo duopoly

      The chinese already run self driving taxis in ~20 cities, more then Waymo and certainly outpacing Teslas. The Duopoly ship sailed.

      • spwa44 hours ago
        Well you should keep in mind that my cat matches Tesla when it comes to self-driving taxis. My cat runs 0 self-driving taxis. Tesla runs 0 self-driving taxis.

        The problem with Waymo is simple: at the price they're doing it, it isn't worth doing. Waymo only works with real drivers ready to take over at the first sign of trouble, so it's at best level 3 self driving, definitely not level 4. This may compare favorably with Tesla's taxis who failed level 3 self-driving and proved to be unsafe at level 2, which really is failing level 2 if we're honest.

        I mean, Musk SCREAMs in the news they're improving, but let's not forget this is the same Musk that promised level 5 self-driving by 2016 (2014 if you count ...). And if you can tell: yes, I'm still pissed about believing him enough to pay for that.

        • ddalex3 hours ago
          I beg to differ, waymo doesn't have humans ready to take over at the first sign of trouble, there are no remote-driven Waymos. The operators make remote high level executive decisions by clickin items in a menu, not by driving.

          Also Waymo is cash positive per car, and more expensive then human drivers - they accidentally unlocked a premium market where people are happy to pay extra to not deal with other humans. At their price point its certainly worth doing the robotaxi business

  • 9 hours ago
    undefined
  • skrebbel9 hours ago
    I simply don’t see the problem. What’s bad about a future with fast, door to door, automatic, public transit? That’s how every scifi movie showed the future to me and this guy is against it for… for what actually? A car maintenance hobby? Comma.ai stock value? I’m not sure.

    It all smells very “they’re coming to take away our guns” to me. A rambly incoherent argument in favour of worse times.

    • 10000truths8 hours ago
      It's not the technology that's the problem, it's the consolidation of entities that control the technology. Low-cost mobility is vital to a healthy economy. Anything that could potentially monopolize transportation should be heavily scrutinized, or else we end up repeating the history of the railroad monopoly era, but with cars.
      • skrebbel32 minutes ago
        I don’t see how “robotaxi” implies “monopoly” at all. The road network is already there. There’s lots of money to be made. The idea that only Waymo will ever be able to figure this out seems rather far-fetched to me.
    • hsjsjdbdbe9 hours ago
      IF it were a public service run at a fair cost. And IF the ones running it did not have an interest in oligopolistic rent extraction... Then yes that might be true... But if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck.....
  • robertclaus9 hours ago
    The automotive industry is huge. It seems unlikely that they would lose lobbying efforts to startup tech companies - so it seems far more likely that cars get more expensive due to government mandated self-diving "safety" features, but just enough that Americans still buy them.
  • bobbleheads9 hours ago
    Supposing full self driving becomes available, surely this will become available in the cars consumers purchase.

    Furthermore, I don't agree with this articles assertion that the existence of robotaxis would lead to an increase on insurance premiums.

  • zkmon9 hours ago
    Not just car, ownership of homes might go even earlier. Just pay rent as long as you are earning, have easier mobility, and then when you are not working, move to a state-provided accommodation.
    • retired9 hours ago
      Sounds a bit grim, if you get laid off you lose your house?
    • wartywhoa239 hours ago
      > move to a state-provided accommodation

      aka Forced Labor Facility.

  • komali29 hours ago
    Wtf is with the random racist diatribe in this?
    • defrost9 hours ago
      The generous take is that's a bit of clumsy inept layout and framing of what is meant to be a throw away parody example of cynical company leveraging "some stupid political agenda item".

      Comedically, it landed much like: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eVVaDxaOJ4

    • EdwardDiego9 hours ago
      To quote myself:

      > I googled him, and turns out that the author is that guy who begged Elon Musk for a chance to work fore free to fix everything and failed, and it really explains a lot.

  • orwin8 hours ago
    This is such a dumb idea. I thought this would be about subscription-based options in cars, of course this was about something much dumber.

    Hey: if you never lived outside your city, let's avoid talking about car ownership? Robotaxi make no sense in 80-90% of all locations.

  • waschl9 hours ago
    Classic enshittification loop
  • nephihaha9 hours ago
    I don't think it's coming, it's already here and has been for a while. (The war on car ownership, not robotaxis.) Many towns restrict or even ban cars from their centres. This os all fine and well when there is a decent public transport system but that does not apply in all cases. It's also difficult if you live in the countryside (the rewilding rhetoric has a subtext relevant to that).
    • youngtaff8 hours ago
      Restricting cars from town centres isn’t about a war on cars, it’s about making the centre usable for pedestrians

      Some studies show that pedestrian friendly centres actually lift economic activity

      • nephihahaan hour ago
        Much of it is tax farming, e.g. parking permits and entry fees. In other places, councils pedestrianise space so that they can set up their own funfairs and Christmas bars etc in competition with local businesses.

        I do not own a car right now, but I don't see much evidence of areas becoming more economically active, except in tourist traps. A lot of businesses and even retail has moved online or out of town to deal with rates. Most of the town centres round here I have seen are deserts filled with vape shops, tanning salons and hairdressers/barbers.

        As I say elsewhere this is not just a city problem but a rural one. At my old home I would have to walk several miles to catch a bus which would appear several times a day. The majority of country areas here are not well served by buses.

  • omnicognate9 hours ago
    I want car ownership to end. I want the road network to eventually become a giant, fully automated public transport system. I don't want it to be owned by silicon valley, though.
  • rvz9 hours ago
    This blog post is going to age like an 18th century chinese vase in perfect condition decades later.
    • youngtaff8 hours ago
      Not sure I get the analogy…

      Was thinking it’s more likely to age like cream cheese left in the sun

  • hiddencost9 hours ago
    God what a garbage human being. Starts off with the stupid racism in the first two paragraphs.
    • gcgbarbosa9 hours ago
      He is the one needing to be diagnosed by a licensed therapist
    • bestouff9 hours ago
      I see it more like calling out passive racism by these companies.
  • dokyun9 hours ago
    Fun read, shame it's flagged. The midwits in this joint don't appreciate transgression.
  • EdwardDiego9 hours ago
    > Our robotaxis are all cleaned by Black Women who were diagnosed by Licensed Therapists with PTSD from the ICE raids, so we should be first in line to get a license.

    I was wondering why the author was writing like a giant piece of shit, and then I googled him, and turns out that the author is that guy who begged Elon Musk for a chance to work fore free to fix everything and failed, and it really explains a lot.

    > In 2022, shortly after the acquisition of Twitter by Elon Musk, Hotz announced that he had joined the company for a 12-week internship, with the task of fixing Twitter search as well as removing the pop up log-in screen displayed to users scrolling without being logged in to an account. On December 20, after less than 5 weeks at the role, he resigned, stating “appreciate the opportunity, but didn’t think there was any real impact I could make there”.

    • Karsteski7 hours ago
      This has absolutely nothing to do with the article. The entire point was the political rat race to obtain the first mover advantage to eventually monopolize local markets, backed by government hindrance to competition.

      We've seen this happen time and time again. Just look at what OpenAI tried to do with their AI safety bullshit. They're the "only ones" that can distribute AI safely lest it destroy us all. No ulterior motives there whatsoever.

  • tuna747 hours ago
    When you have federal agents going around murdering people* in the US, the biggest problem you feel to write about is some kind of fear that private car insurance will be more expensive in the future. Good prioritization!

    * I know you can have two thoughts at once, but the timing says a lot IMO.